Free software that helps with making a line

[Dunbar]

Here's a little more info on what this spreadsheet program will and will not do.

It won't create a line from scratch. You have to have some initial idea of what the odds on each horse in a race should be. What the program WILL do is see if the odds, taken together, make sense. For example, let's take the morning line for the Preakness.

1 - Mint Slewup 30-1
2 - Xchanger 15 - 1
3 - Circular Quay 8 - 1
4 - Curlin 7 -2
5 - King of Roxy 12-1
6 - Flying First Class 20 -1
7 - Hard Spun 5-2
8 - Street Sense 7-5
9 - C P West 20 -1

If you input those odds into the program, you immediately know that they correspond to a 23.2% track take, not the 18% track take at Pimlico. An 18% track take, keeping the same relative odds of the ML, would look like this:

1 - Mint Slewup 35-1
2 - Xchanger 16 - 1
3 - Circular Quay 9 - 1
4 - Curlin 4-1
5 - King of Roxy 13-1
6 - Flying First Class 22 -1
7 - Hard Spun 5-2
8 - Street Sense 3-2
9 - C P West 22 -1

Those are only slightly higher than the morning line. But the biggest change is when you use the program to convert the ML to a fair odds line (with no takeout):

1 - Mint Slewup 40-1
2 - Xchanger 21 - 1
3 - Circular Quay 11 - 1
4 - Curlin 5-1
5 - King of Roxy 17-1
6 - Flying First Class 30 -1
7 - Hard Spun 7-2
8 - Street Sense 2-1
9 - C P West 30 -1

So Street Sense, 7-5 in the ML, would be 2-1 if you remove the takeout. King of the Roxy moves from 12-1 to 17-1. You might think 8-1 on Circular Quay is ridiculously low; but that's "really" 11-1 if you remove the takeout factor.

If you think the ML generally reflects the chance of each horse winning, it would still be important to convert it to a line with 0% takeout before considering a bet.

You, of course, don't have to use the ML at all. I only used it to demonstrate how much difference there is between an ML and a line with no takeout. The spreadsheet will convert any odds line to either a fair odds line or the 18% (or whatever) track take odds line.

--Dunbar