Betting The Preakness

[SentToStud]

I see it:

SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
----------
CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
-----------
MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1

I used about 15% hold.

I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.

SS/CQ pays $25 at most.

Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.

Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.

I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.