Betting The Preakness

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:

Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument

It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.

And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by justindew

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

They were favored over the Derby winner? I'm too lazy to research also.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

They were favored over the Derby winner? I'm too lazy to research also.

Can't you assign it to an intern or assistant?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Can't you assign it to an intern or assistant?

Well get to it, B! Thanks for offering.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Well get to it, B! Thanks for offering.

I'll send it downstairs to the lab. I'll get back to you in 2-6 weeks.

[zippyneedsawin]

sigh... I guess I'm the intern.


Menifee was the 2-1 favorite:

http://horseracing.about.com/library...y/aa051599.htm


Victory Gallop was the favorite at 9-5

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mor...eakness_final/

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

sigh... I guess I'm the intern.


Menifee was the 2-1 favorite:

http://horseracing.about.com/library...y/aa051599.htm


Victory Gallop was the favorite at 9-5

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mor...eakness_final/

Crazy that Charismatic was 8-1! What a gift!!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

I think you're missing my point.
If this was the 2nd at Aqueduct and these were 20k claimers named A, B, and C, and you didn't like any of the longshot new shooters, given your opinion that A will win and B or C will likely finish 2nd, would you bet it A over B and C with exactas at $12 and $18 instead of a win bet at 6/5? I would certainly hope so. That is extracting maximum value out of your opinion.

[justindew]

If it was not the Preakness, I would probably pass the race.

That being said, I think Street Sense might actually offer slight value at 6-5.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

If it was not the Preakness, I would probably pass the race.

That being said, I think Street Sense might actually offer slight value at 6-5.

Now that is a statement I can agree with you on.

My only goal is to have a live pick 4 to Street Sense and Hard Spun.
If Hard Spun is 9-2 or higher (EXTREMELY doubtful) I'll consider a win bet.

[blackthroatedwind]

Out of curiosity, since you keep bringing him up, do you remember Prince of Thieves and the kind of racehorse he was?

Honestly, nobody in control of their senses gave him a shot in the world in the Preakness.