Another easy work for Curlin

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

A lot of people seem to like this horse Saturday. I honestly give him very little chance at all.

CJ..

Would love to have you expand on this a bit.. I imagine your thinking this way stems from a pace scenario/fig standpoint... ??

[zippyneedsawin]

I give Curlin a very good chance to win the Preakness, but it's hard to say since the field is not yet set.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ..

Would love to have you expand on this a bit.. I imagine your thinking this way stems from a pace scenario/fig standpoint... ??

I don't think he has ever shown enough to beat either Hard Spun or Street Sense. I am not real big on betting horses that need to improve to win without getting a paid for making that leap. I just don't think he is good enough, and 4 to 1 isn't near enough in my opinion.

Is he going to lay close to Hard Spun and outrun him home while holding off Steet Sense? Or is he going to lay back and out kick Street Sense and Hard Spun? I don't see it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

[cmorioles]

If Steet Sense had Curlin's trip in the Derby, he still wins.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

I see math wasn't one of your stronger subjects.

Nothing like a horseplayer with an initially bad opinion allowing it to spiral into a plethora of even worse opinions. Seriously, you will find yourself with more time, and more money, if you would just admit you were wrong about Street Sense and try to focus on actually making money at the racetrack.

To be perfectly honest you are acting like a now banned member from this site who has also never acknowledged the many times he was wrong ( while also pretending he objectively analyzes races ).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To be perfectly honest you are acting like a now banned member from this site who has also never acknowledged the many times he was wrong.

Please tell me all I have been wrong about.....

Or are you just playing the role of the warm-up act for ARyan again?

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Please tell me all I have been wrong about.....

Or are you just playing the role of the warm-up act for ARyan again?

It is obvious that a few people on here do not value your opinion based on your continued stubborn aversion to admit when you were just wrong in your handicapping. Nobody, certainly not myself or anyone on this board, is 100% correct on every opinion on a horse or race. You are no different.

After Saturday, it will be very interesting to see what excuses you will come up with for why all the hypotheses you played out for everyone to read didn't pan out in reality.

At least you have some practice at doing so...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ARyan

At least you have some practice at doing so...

You have no idea what you're talking about.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I will give you that he is being very stubborn about this issue, I have no idea why. But I will say I have read DrugS ramblings for awhile now and he is about as sharp as I have seen. He's like a horse racing Rainman. Now, if he were a bit better looking he might be perfect, but hey, who is?

I didn't say he wasn't sharp, just that when he is wrong, just say, "Hey, I missed that one." Not make up trip excuses or not give a horse/jock/trainer some credit.

That was my point, not that he is a dullard when it comes to horse racing or handicapping.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I will give you that he is being very stubborn about this issue, I have no idea why.

We will learn more on Saturday.

If Street Sense wins--or gets beat a very short margin by a perfect trip aided Hard Spun or Curlin--without SS getting another perfect rail trip....I will have no trouble saying "I'm totally wrong about him....he's unarguably the best 3yo colt around."

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

Interesting thread...personally, I would hate to see any horse work fast between the Derby and the Preakness...and Curlin, with his lack of seasoning and the fact this will be his 5th race since 2/3/07, certainly wouldn't benefit from same imo. Curlin seems to do 6f in about 1:13 in his routes, I don't see him close to a swift pace. With SS's gears, he can afford to give Curlin first run I think. To me, only Hard Spun has the potential to stop SS and that depends on whether he can maintain his form off a two week rest.

[tycharles01]

If King of the Roxy stay just off Hard Spun and FFC he should be able to hit the board at a nice price

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Is he going to lay close to Hard Spun and outrun him home while holding off Steet Sense? Or is he going to lay back and out kick Street Sense and Hard Spun? I don't see it.

It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Is SS gonna get the Moses trip again?

He just needs to settle just behind the pacesetters and get a clear run.

Shouldn't be too hard to do.

[cmorioles]

I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

TFM,

I think he needs a great trip, while the other two have poor trips, to have a chance. If they all get a fair shot, Curlin is no better than 3rd best.

If Hard Spun gets a rough trip, it is very unlikely that Street Sense will. If the Derby winner gets a rough trip, it most likely means Hard Spun is not. I think either of those beats Curlin even with moderate adversity. I'm not even convinced he is better than Sedgefield or King of the Roxy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

In order to show improved early speed, like he will probably need to in order to fall into that trip....it would have helped if he'd have worked in a manner that could put him on his toes a little more.

As you know....the speed horses show through the early stages of races can be tweaked by how they are handled coming into the race.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In order to show improved early speed, like he will probably need to in order to fall into that trip....it would have helped if he'd have worked in a manner that could put him on his toes a little more.

As you know....the speed horses show through the early stages of races can be tweaked by how they are handled coming into the race.

What you say is true, but if I was going that deep to figure out who I would or would not bet, I'd find another race. Being up close is probably not a good idea in my opinion, but I guess we'll see on Saturday.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

What happened to "doing the work?"
Please tell us all the exact number of minutes we should all spend handicapping each race, and what exactly we should look at and what we shouldn't. Apparently you are the only one that knows this information.

I think CJ was just saying better value can be found elsewhere...and I think he's right.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Miraja, I think you are a bit off here.

Wouldn't be the first time!!

[tycharles01]

A bad trip for SS is someone blocking the rail.