Preakness - I don't think I like anyone

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I don't expect Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin to 'not fire". I'm expecting good efforts from all of them. None of them have shown me the type of signals that they are inconsistent, over-raced, over-the-top etc.
It's not a race that I'm interested in betting. I just don't get all the expectations of bouncing and not firing. These horses have nearly spotless records and always have shown up when the gates open.

This is a totally different situation. These horses have never come back on only two weeks rest.

Not that horses who run well in the Derby don't often come back and run well in the Preakness. They often times run well. Derby winners have done exceptionally well in the Preakness in recent years. It just depends on the situation and the horse. I didn't expect Barbaro, Giacamo, or Smarty Jones to bounce in the Preakness. It just depends on the situation. I judge every horse as an individual.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

This is a totally different situation. These horses have never come back on only two weeks rest.

Not that horses who run well in the Derby don't often come back and run well in the Preakness. They often times run well. Derby winners have done exceptionally well in the Preakness in recent years. It just depends on the situation and the horse. I didn't expect Barbaro, Giacamo, or Smarty Jones to bounce in the Preakness. It just depends on the situation. I judge every horse as an individual.

The Preakness is normally the first time almost any three year old comes back on only two weeks rest, so to say that these have never come back before on only two weeks rest doesn't mean much to me. It was the same for other Kentucky derby winners who have done well in the Preakness as you have mentioned.

Why did you not expect Barbaro, Giacomo or Smarty Jones to bounce, but you are expecting Street Sense and Hard Spun to do so? What is it about their individual situations that makes it so clear in your mind?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

The Preakness is normally the first time almost any three year old comes back on only two weeks rest, so to say that these have never come back before on only two weeks rest doesn't mean much to me. It was the same for other Kentucky derby winners who have done well in the Preakness as you have mentioned.

Why did you not expect Barbaro, Giacomo or Smarty Jones to bounce, but you are expecting Street Sense and Hard Spun to do so? What is it about their individual situations that makes it so clear in your mind?

For what it's worth, if any of those were bounce candidates (depending on the extent to which you believe in it...), it was Giacomo.

Barbaro ran a career top in the Derby, Smarty Jones had been consistently fast going into it, but Giacomo ran his best TG fig by far -- improving his best ever performance by 4.5 points, which if I'm not mistaken correlates to roughly ten lengths better than any of his previous performances which were in and of themselves sort of sneakily better than they looked.

I know that numbers aren't everything by any stretch, but if we believed that Giacomo shouldn't bounce but Street Sense should, something doesn't add up.

[blackthroatedwind]

Giacomo must have bounced the rest of his career as well.

Enough with bounce....it's imaginary and the sooner people realize this and start handicapping and analyzing races logically the better off they will be.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Giacomo must have bounced the rest of his career as well.

Enough with bounce....it's imaginary and the sooner people realize this and start handicapping and analyzing races logically the better off they will be.

Well that solves it.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Enough with bounce....it's imaginary and the sooner people realize this and start handicapping and analyzing races logically the better off they will be.

You cannot say this often enough, as far as I'm concerned. I cringed at the initial post in the thread.

--Dunbar

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You cannot say this often enough, as far as I'm concerned. I cringed at the initial post in the thread.

--Dunbar

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

Nobody suggested they were robots, however the very real possibility exists that they are legitimately good horses, and actual good horses are able to run well over and over again.

It seems to me that horses didn't learn to bounce until Ragozin invented the theory.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

ateam, let's make a hypo bet. You pick some race in the future for Street Sense and Hard Spun in which you think they will be less likely to "bounce". How about the first race they run after the Belmont? (whether or not they run in the Belmont, they should be well-rested in whatever race they run after the Belmont.) I'll take each horse's Preakness performance. You give me odds of 6-5, since you think they will bounce in the Preakness, and I think it's a coin flip whether they will run better or worse in the Preakness than in any given future race. If you'd rather have the next race after the Preakness, even if it's the Belmont, that's fine, too. I'm willing to take the Preakness performances over any random future race. (We could even leave the picking of the future race open, with the stipulation that it has to be in 2007! Of course, I'm liable to be obnoxiously reminding you to pick your race every time one of them is entered!)

So-called "bounce" is always much easier to "see" after the fact, as in "he bounced". If you believe a horse will bounce, you will sooner or later be correct, in the sense that sooner or later the horse will toss in a sub-par performance for some reason.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

I agree with this completely. He is a deserving favorite in the Preakness, but hardly a lock. I have him between 2-1 and 5-2 in my line. He will of course go off lower than that.

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

For what it's worth, if any of those were bounce candidates (depending on the extent to which you believe in it...), it was Giacomo.

Barbaro ran a career top in the Derby, Smarty Jones had been consistently fast going into it, but Giacomo ran his best TG fig by far -- improving his best ever performance by 4.5 points, which if I'm not mistaken correlates to roughly ten lengths better than any of his previous performances which were in and of themselves sort of sneakily better than they looked.

I know that numbers aren't everything by any stretch, but if we believed that Giacomo shouldn't bounce but Street Sense should, something doesn't add up.

I know that there are people that believe that a horse will "bounce" if the horse runs a career-best race. I'm not a big believer in that theory. I believe that horses should have plenty of time between races and if you bring them back too soon, they may not be able to repeat their previous race. I don't know if you would define that as a "bounce".

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

The Preakness is normally the first time almost any three year old comes back on only two weeks rest, so to say that these have never come back before on only two weeks rest doesn't mean much to me. It was the same for other Kentucky derby winners who have done well in the Preakness as you have mentioned.

Why did you not expect Barbaro, Giacomo or Smarty Jones to bounce, but you are expecting Street Sense and Hard Spun to do so? What is it about their individual situations that makes it so clear in your mind?

Barbaro had 5 weeks before the Derby, whereas SS only had 3 weeks.

With Smarty Jones, I got to see some footage of him training between the Derby and the Preakness and he looked great. That is the only reason that I didn't expect him to regress in the Preakness. If I didn't know how well he was doing, I would have been concerned about a possible bounce. I was actually shocked at how good he looked training between the Derby and Preakness. He had run a lot of hard races on short rest. That horse was made of steele.

With Giacomo, he had 4 weeks before the Derby. Not only that, he had been coming from behind and just picking up the pieces and hitting the board, but not winning, in his races leading up to the Derby. I wouldn't expect that to take as much out of a horse.

With Curlin, I thought they were asking a huge amount of him to run in the Derby. He'd only run 3 times and he was coming back in 3 weeks. I thought that was more than the horse could take. Now to ask him to come back in 2 weeks is really asking a lot.

None of this is an exact science. I can't tell you what will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. All I can do is make an educated guess as to what I think is asking a horse too much.

I'm not saying that I'm confident that these 3 horses won't fire. I'm just saying that all 3 of these horses are being asked for a lot under the circumstances and I think that all 3 are vulnerable to regress in the Preakness.

[fpsoxfan]

Well, as always we know who the folks at NYRA are rooting for. I really think Street Sense will come right back and be very tough.

[brockguy]

I like King of the Roxy here.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by brockguy

I like King of the Roxy here.

someone else has to finish up the super, he's my pick of horses other than the 'big three'.
but then, i'd add him to any tri's before i added curlin...

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

someone else has to finish up the super, he's my pick of horses other than the 'big three'.
but then, i'd add him to any tri's before i added curlin...

the last furlong will be issue with him, but horses best performances are (I believe) usually when they are at the upmost limit of their stamina..btw, you see whose son won the French 2000 Guineas today.

[Danzig]

looks like chelokee is going to the barbaro stakes, rather than the preakness.

hadn't seen about the french 2k brock, but i take it a danzig colt won??

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

The Preakness is normally the first time almost any three year old comes back on only two weeks rest, so to say that these have never come back before on only two weeks rest doesn't mean much to me. It was the same for other Kentucky derby winners who have done well in the Preakness as you have mentioned.

Why did you not expect Barbaro, Giacomo or Smarty Jones to bounce, but you are expecting Street Sense and Hard Spun to do so? What is it about their individual situations that makes it so clear in your mind?

Jim makes an excellent point, no horses come back off two week layoffs now a days and this one time a year only a handful even give it a try. I'm also curious to see why you didnt think Barbaro, Smarty or Giacomo would bounce, and why Street Sense will. If you think SS is going to bounce, then Hard Spun would be a candidate as well, because he ran harder in the Derby.

I tend to think Street Sense takes the Preakness. He is at the top of his form right now and his effort in the Derby may not have taken it all out of him. Against the Preakness field, I think that is enough to win. We'll see about the Belmont.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Jim makes an excellent point, no horses come back off two week layoffs now a days and this one time a year only a handful even give it a try. I'm also curious to see why you didnt think Barbaro, Smarty or Giacomo would bounce, and why Street Sense will. If you think SS is going to bounce, then Hard Spun would be a candidate as well, because he ran harder in the Derby.

I tend to think Street Sense takes the Preakness. He is at the top of his form right now and his effort in the Derby may not have taken it all out of him. Against the Preakness field, I think that is enough to win. We'll see about the Belmont.

See post #37 in this thread. In that post, I give my rationale.

I agree with you about Hard Spun. He ran harder than SS in the Derby. I think it will be very hard for HS to repeat the race he just ran.

[tycharles01]

I would go with either Circular Quay or Soaring By to the Preakness

Soaring By tho would be more likely to run in the Sir Barton on the undercard

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

I would go with either Circular Quay or Soaring By to the Preakness

Soaring By tho would be more likely to run in the Sir Barton on the undercard

Either of these two would be no surprise. But he could throw in Metocricy (sp?) because the LLc's like Peachtree love having a "classic" runner to promote new customers.