Rags to Riches/Belmont try?

somerfrost · #1 05-08-2007, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

She's got the best 12-furlong pedigree of any of his 3-year-olds and may be faster than any of them too. If that's the case, why not send her?

She's no Tanya imo!

somerfrost · #2 05-08-2007, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

She's no Tanya imo!

I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

ateamstupid · #3 05-08-2007, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Cannon Shell · #4 05-08-2007, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Her broodmare value is moot because there is only one guy who could afford her now other than her current owners and there is zero chance that Tabor and co. would let him have her.

But it would be a historic win if she won

paisjpq · #5 05-08-2007, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Her broodmare value is moot because there is only one guy who could afford her now other than her current owners and there is zero chance that Tabor and co. would let him have her.

But it would be a historic win if she won

I heard the lads will be offering her to the sheikhs at the end of the season as a peace offering

Cannon Shell · #6 05-08-2007, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

I heard the lads will be offering her to the sheikhs at the end of the season as a peace offering

I'd like to be there for the handoff

somerfrost · #7 05-08-2007, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Yeah, broodmare value is rather moot cause of her ownership...what to lose? When you have a champion, the last thing you want is a bad beating! A filly can beat the boys, Lady's Secret and others proved that, but if it was my horse...I'd pick a better spot! True, if she wins, she makes history but it's a huge gamble imo!

Cannon Shell · #8 05-08-2007, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yeah, broodmare value is rather moot cause of her ownership...what to lose? When you have a champion, the last thing you want is a bad beating! A filly can beat the boys, Lady's Secret and others proved that, but if it was my horse...I'd pick a better spot! True, if she wins, she makes history but it's a huge gamble imo!

I think that this is a pretty weak group of colts and very few have breeding that suggests that they will relish the distance. She has enough speed to get the right trip and will catch the best colts coming off of 2 hard efforts and coming back on short rest. If she loses then she can resume beating up on fillies in the Test/Alabama. Plus Pletcher will make his other owners happy by getting Octave a grade 1 win in the Acorn or Mother Goose without having to mess with Rags.

AeWingnut · #9 05-08-2007, 05:05 PM

Silverbulletday

somerfrost · #10 05-08-2007, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Silverbulletday

Exactly...Silverbulletday was considered equal to or superior to the 3yo colts, she tried the 1999 Belmont went off at 5-1 and finished a tired 7th! She had a good turn of speed and set the pace without being challenged...

ELA · #11 05-08-2007, 05:25 PM

If you have a filly and want to try and tackle the colts -- the sooner the better, before the boys mature. I think broodmare value here is completely irrelevant -- she is not for sale, will never be, and her foal will not be for sale. Never say never, but the only thing that will change that is a complete crash of Coolmore, or if they look to take on outside partners, money, etc. and decide to put something through the ring. They wouldn't have to do that, but I guess they could.

As far as her pedigree "suggests" and her being by a Belmont winner, out of a mare who also produced a Belmont winner -- well, I forget the specifics, but two relatively famous quotes stick out in my mind. First, was the one that said "Mrs. Dempsey had nine sons and only one was a boxer" or something like that, LOL. Maybe it was Jack Johnson, I don't remember. And the second one was from my least favorite fighter Mike Tyson" -- he said "everyone has a plan, until they get hit"

Sure, they have nothing to lose, but that doesn't mean she's gonna win or even be competitive.

Eric

Skip away · #12 05-08-2007, 05:06 PM

Exactly Canon, but Todd wont run her in the Test, too short for her. Her only race this summer after the Belmont will be the Alabama. Then she runs once at Belmont, most likely against the fillies, then its on to Monmouth for the BC, again most likely in the filly & mare race.

Thoroughbred Fan · #13 05-08-2007, 05:20 PM

Somer stop being such a wuss. It seems racing can't make anyone happy. If horses dodge one another, we cry about not getting to see the matchups we want. Then ,if someone does something "sporting" (good word for it Cannon)you're already calling them dumb for trying.

She can clearly beat the fillies without a top effort. Racing doesn't need another filly who picks her spots to retire with a nearly pristine record (Azeri, Ashado, etc), they need something over the top. A big G1 win by a filly over males would be a huge boost to the sport. Either way, if she runs, I'll actually be rooting for Pletcher. I can't believe I just said that.

philcski · #14 05-08-2007, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think that this is a pretty weak group of colts and very few have breeding that suggests that they will relish the distance. She has enough speed to get the right trip and will catch the best colts coming off of 2 hard efforts and coming back on short rest. If she loses then she can resume beating up on fillies in the Test/Alabama. Plus Pletcher will make his other owners happy by getting Octave a grade 1 win in the Acorn or Mother Goose without having to mess with Rags.

The problem is the two best colts both are bred to go the mile and a half and look like they will relish it.

The rest of them? Not so much.

witchdoctor · #15 05-08-2007, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Wonder if that what the owners of Ruffian were thinking in her match race with Foolish pleasure?

Thoroughbred Fan · #16 05-08-2007, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by witchdoctor

Wonder if that what the owners of Ruffian were thinking in her match race with Foolish pleasure?

The risk of breakdown is constant. Believe it or not horses even get cast in their stalls. They are fragile, but this is a sport. By definition it means to compete.

Cannon Shell · #17 05-08-2007, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by witchdoctor

Wonder if that what the owners of Ruffian were thinking in her match race with Foolish pleasure?

Do you think her leg broke because she was racing against a colt?

somerfrost · #18 05-08-2007, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Do you think her leg broke because she was racing against a colt?

No, her leg may well have been injured coming out of the gate (there is some evidence that she struck the metal as the gate opened), it was a tragic event that I suspect had little to do with who she was racing against.

witchdoctor · #19 05-08-2007, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Do you think her leg broke because she was racing against a colt?

No.
My point was these horses are not machines and there can be alot to lose.

ateamstupid · #20 05-08-2007, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by witchdoctor

No.
My point was these horses are not machines and there can be alot to lose.

And the risk of her breaking down is greater against boys than against fillies?