The worst pedigree wins the Derby

Originally Posted by miraja2

That is not what is going on here at all. If someone had come on here BEFORE the Derby and said that Street Sense had the worst 10f pedigree in the field, I guarantee you there would have been people (myself included) that would have set that poster straight.
Looking at pedigrees isn't like looking at a crystal ball. Sure there are plenty of horses that run in a manner contrary to what their pedigree indicates is likely. But Street Sense simply does not have a likely sprinter's pedigree. We are explaining that NOW - instead of before the Derby - only because now is the first time we have heard such insanity.
If people came on here now and said....."Did you know that Street Sense is part donkey?" I would explain to them that he was not. I wouldn't have explained to them that he wasn't part donkey before the race, simply because it never would have occurred to me that anyone would possibly think he was. See my point?

Yes. thats why I am waiting for the analysis before the Preakness.

[Linny]

Pedigree profiling is too general to apply to the Preakness, specifically. The reason for the discussion before the Derby is that a CD you are asking these colts to do something entirely new, stretch to 10f. Most of the Preakness runners will be exiting the Derby, so they have some sort of indicator of routing ability already.
Profiling for distance capacity is a broad study and not likely to say, colt A is better at 10f, colt B is better at 9 1/2. If a horse can win at 10f in G1 company, he may be expected to also be effective at 9 1/2.
In most cases the "new shooters" in the Preakness have already been 9f, so they are only being asked to move on 1/16, not a huge jump.

Pedigree analysis can lead to to see a certain capacity in a horse, ie. run 10f, handle mud etc. It cannot assure you that the horse is good enough to do it in certain company. Any horse can get 10f if you wait long enough. Cowtown Cat ran 10f last Sat. He just did it in about 2:30. Was it because he wan't bred for it, or just not good enough? For ages everyone talked about dosage and how well it "picked Derby winners." What they never mentioned was the tens of thousands of colts with the right dosage to win the Derby who were toiling in maiden claiming races or unstarted all together. They were bred for 10f but too slow to get there.

[Pedigree Ann]

I usually do work-ups of the Derby contenders' pedigrees before the event - that is how I got the nickname 'Pedigree Ann' on the late lamented Road to the Roses message board. Didn't have time to do it this year because I was busy remodeling my kitchen. (The backsplash is up! All I have to do now is grout it, finish the new switchplates and get them up, and it's done!)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes. thats why I am waiting for the analysis before the Preakness.

Okay. Which Preakness starter should we discuss?