What Scav learned today

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

I learned that horses that closed well at Keeneland are sucker bets on the dirt.

I count 4 winners yesterday on the Churchill dirt, that last raced at Keeneland. Why are they sucker bets?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I count 4 winners yesterday on the Churchill dirt, that last raced at Keeneland. Why are they sucker bets?

That 'CLOSED' well, I completely agree with her

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I count 4 winners yesterday on the Churchill dirt, that last raced at Keeneland. Why are they sucker bets?

Because front-runners don't get as tired on dirt as they do on poly. He's talking about the deep closers who could get up at Kee in the last 3 jumps after looking hopelessly beaten at the 3/16-pole. Cheap speed horses are especially vulnerable to running out of gas on poly.

[ArlJim78]

[quote=Pedigree Ann]Because front-runners don't get as tired on dirt as they do on poly. He's talking about the deep closers who could get up at Kee in the last 3 jumps after looking hopelessly beaten at the 3/16-pole. Cheap speed horses are especially vulnerable to running out of gas on poly.[/QUOTE
Thanks, but I already knew about how speed plays at Kee.

Which were the deep closer sucker plays at CD yesterday then? The only possible one I can see was Cute Cakes, who closed into a pretty good pace. But one example does not make a trend. If anything the trend was the other way.

Ginger Punch, Silverinyourpocket, and Street Sense won at Churchill yesterday after running closing style races at Keeneland against slow paces.
People should consider the pace in order to qualify closing efforts. Just looking at the running line can be deceptive.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I count 4 winners yesterday on the Churchill dirt, that last raced at Keeneland. Why are they sucker bets?

ok.. I don't consider Ginger Punch as a deep closer coming from Keeneland. The only horse that was a deep closer that came form Keeneland was #3 Silverinyourpocket in the 7th with Calvin Borel up. A far cry from 4 closers. Before you jump all over me about Street Sense please remember that Zanjero (on the same part of the track) and everyone else that ran in the Bluegrass were no where in the Derby.


I guess I really wasn't a sucker for the deep closers at all. Just disappointed that Carriage Trail couldn't get up.


Sorry I brought up the track bias at Keeneland

[2MinsToPost]

Scav I find it interesting that you have more control when you bet from home, very odd. For me it just does not "seem" like I am losing as much when I am playing from home versus handing over the cash to a teller.

No way can you be succesful betting that many tracks at a time, no way. You know that man, just focus on like 2 or 3 max.

I enjoy betting poly and have scored some very nice hits at Kee. The turf to poly angle is golden a lot of times.

Scavs, I can tell from your posts that you are VERY KNOWLEDGABLE about this game. Trust your instincts man.

[timmgirvan]

I haven't been to a track in 10 years easy....too many people in lines. I find that I can think and plan better when its just me at the board

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Scav I find it interesting that you have more control when you bet from home, very odd. For me it just does not "seem" like I am losing as much when I am playing from home versus handing over the cash to a teller.

No way can you be succesful betting that many tracks at a time, no way. You know that man, just focus on like 2 or 3 max.

I enjoy betting poly and have scored some very nice hits at Kee. The turf to poly angle is golden a lot of times.

Scavs, I can tell from your posts that you are VERY KNOWLEDGABLE about this game. Trust your instincts man.

Curt, I am out of control in any environment. I don't wager through tellers, I use the voucher system so I go to a teller and tell them to give me a $500 voucher, and then they give me a piece of paper.

I am not a 20MTP to post handicapper, I am a 5MTP go with my first feeling handicapper, when at the track, and on days like this, I am bored in two seconds because I have looked at this horses PP about 12 times. The other thing about home is that their is more information to gain my attention