Derby Future Odds, Presented by Dunbar

[Dunbar]

5/4 (and possibly final) update

DrugS's endorsement of AGS knocked the Pinnacle odds from 19-1 to 14-1 ;>) (still at 16-1 at TheGreek)
Someone also snapped up Sedgefield at 80-1 at TheGreek, knocking it down to 60-1 there. (still at 70-1 at bodog)
Curlin, Street Sense and Circ Quay were bet down from the odds offered yesterday. (others, too, but those jumped out at me.)

Here is the updated list of highest future odds:

Sedgefield 70 Bodog
Curlin 4.85 Greek
Zanjero 25 Bodog
StormInMay 72.5 Greek
ImaWildGuy 75 Bodog
CowtownCat 28.5 Greek
StreetSense 5.39 Pinny
HardSpun 15.25 Greek
Liquidity 46.98 Pinny
Teuflesberg 80 Pinny
Bwana Bull 70 Bodog
Nobiz 8.9 Pinny
SamP 40 Pinny
ScatDaddy 8.85 Greek
Tiago 18.15 Greek
CircQuay 9 Bodog
Stormello 40 Bodog
AGS 16.15 Greek
Dominican 25.5 Greek,Pinny
Great Hunter 27 Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 7.8%.

--Dunbar

Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

I thought it might be of interest to compare the last future odds I posted (on Friday, May 4) to the parimutual payouts. The first number is the future odds from Friday, the 2nd number is the parimutual:


Sedgefield 70, 58.60
Curlin 4.85, 5.00
Zanjero 25, 36.00
StormInMay 72.5 , 27.20
ImaWildGuy 75, 28.90
CowtownCat 28.5 , 19.80
StreetSense 5.39 , 4.90
HardSpun 15.25 , 10.00
Liquidity 46.98 , 40.00
Teuflesberg 80 , 51.90
Bwana Bull 70, 50.30
Nobiz 8.9, 10.40
SamP 40, 43.70
ScatDaddy 8.85 , 7.20
Tiago 18.15 , 14.80
CircQuay 9 , 11.40
Stormello 40 , 44.80
AGS 16.15 , 13.60
Dominican 25.5, 24.90
Great Hunter 27, 25.30

6 of the 20 horses would have paid more in the parimutuals than the highest futures on Friday. Curlin was the best finisher of those 6.

I don't understand what the bettors saw in Storm In May to make him 27-1. I thought the futures price of 72-1 was more realistic. Huge difference, too, between the future on Imawildandcrazyguy at 75-1 and the parimutual at 28-1.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I thought it might be of interest to compare the last future odds I posted (on Friday, May 4) to the parimutual payouts. The first number is the future odds from Friday, the 2nd number is the parimutual:


Sedgefield 70, 58.60
Curlin 4.85, 5.00
Zanjero 25, 36.00
StormInMay 72.5 , 27.20
ImaWildGuy 75, 28.90
CowtownCat 28.5 , 19.80
StreetSense 5.39 , 4.90
HardSpun 15.25 , 10.00
Liquidity 46.98 , 40.00
Teuflesberg 80 , 51.90
Bwana Bull 70, 50.30
Nobiz 8.9, 10.40
SamP 40, 43.70
ScatDaddy 8.85 , 7.20
Tiago 18.15 , 14.80
CircQuay 9 , 11.40
Stormello 40 , 44.80
AGS 16.15 , 13.60
Dominican 25.5, 24.90
Great Hunter 27, 25.30

6 of the 20 horses would have paid more in the parimutuals than the highest futures on Friday. Curlin was the best finisher of those 6.

I don't understand what the bettors saw in Storm In May to make him 27-1. I thought the futures price of 72-1 was more realistic. Huge difference, too, between the future on Imawildandcrazyguy at 75-1 and the parimutual at 28-1.
--Dunbar

I was saying that all day Friday and Saturday. The fact that they went off at similar prices to the winner of the Blue Grass (regardless of whether he ran like dog doo doo) proves how much stupid money there is in the Derby pool.

[hockey2315]

It seems to me like the owners were betting on those two or something. . .

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It seems to me like the owners were betting on those two or something. . .

You realize how much money it takes to move a horse's odds in the Derby pool that significantly, right?

[ninetoone]

It was early money too, right? Weren't they bet down on Friday night?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

You realize how much money it takes to move a horse's odds in the Derby pool that significantly, right?

Right. If $30M of the $50M WPS mutual was in the win pool (just estimating), then there was $25M after takeout. A 50-1 shot would have $500K bet on it. It would take another $500K to move it to 25-1. Betting half a million on a long shot is crazy even by owners' standards.

I think both Storm In May and Imawildandcrazyguy may have been bet down primarily because of their names!

--Dunbar

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Right. If $30M of the $50M WPS mutual was in the win pool (just estimating), then there was $25M after takeout. A 50-1 shot would have $500K bet on it. It would take another $500K to move it to 25-1. Betting half a million on a long shot is crazy even by owners' standards.

I think both Storm In May and Imawildandcrazyguy may have been bet down primarily because of their names!

--Dunbar

And don't underestimate the fact that they were the only two gray horses in the race as well!

[ninetoone]

Maybe Steve Martin laid some big cash down on I'mawild...