m/l odds

[hi_im_god]

133.35% on that morning line.

A real line would be 100% minus takeout.

They never seem to make anyone 99-1 as they should. It's a shame that one of the most important races of the year gets a completely bogus m/l. I think this is one Derby tradition we could do without.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

133.35% on that morning line.

A real line would be 100% minus takeout.

They never seem to make anyone 99-1 as they should. It's a shame that one of the most important races of the year gets a completely bogus m/l. I think this is one Derby tradition we could do without.

For a 16% takeout, the odds, converted to probability with Prob=1/(1+odds), should add to 119%. I'm calculating 136% from this "ML", which would be fine if the takeout were 26%!

If he kept it to 119%, he'd have a tough time making Curlin and Street Sense so low.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

133.35% on that morning line.

A real line would be 100% minus takeout.

They never seem to make anyone 99-1 as they should. It's a shame that one of the most important races of the year gets a completely bogus m/l. I think this is one Derby tradition we could do without.

This is what is so crazy to me. Cant they at least try and make it close to 100%. There is no effort to do so. Maybe its looked at as disrespectful. But it is disrespectful that some of these are running.

Street Sense will be your public betting favorite at 9/2. I will go with Curlin next at 5-1. Nobiz next at 6-1. This will leave plenty of good prices for the folks that like other horses. Nobiz could be longer.

Curlin at 7/2 and SS at 4-1 Nobiz 5-1 would leave great prices for the others. It is very interesting to watch the odds change though. Sometimes the public will just pile on a favorite.

My four horses for a win/place bet are still:
Scat Daddy
Great Hunter
Hard Spun
Any Given Saturday

I will now have to reconcile Post position with best odds to pick one of the above.