Post Position Draw List

ArlJim78 · #1 05-02-2007, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

You have reading comprehension problems I see...don't attempt to belittle my intelligence by putting words in my mouth...there are no absolutes in racing, certainly not in the Derby...every one of the 20 horses entered CAN win, a horse CAN win from any post position...the point I make is that it has proven to be extremely difficult from the three inside positions...if Curlin is the horse some think he is, he will win from anywhere...hell, the way some talk, he would win starting from his stall!

There are others on the other extreme that talk like he has almost no chance whatsoever based simply on the fact he didn't race at 2.

somerfrost · #2 05-02-2007, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

There are others on the other extreme that talk like he has almost no chance whatsoever based simply on the fact he didn't race at 2.

Not me... I'm more concerned with only 3 races total and all grouped in a short period facing questionable competition. He has a chance but I'll not bet him...that's far from saying he has almost no chance.

ArlJim78 · #3 05-02-2007, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Not me... I'm more concerned with only 3 races total and all grouped in a short period facing questionable competition. He has a chance but I'll not bet him...that's far from saying he has almost no chance.

Fair enough, those are valid concerns.
But I have not seen the people claiming he is so good that he can win from anywhere.

jman5581 · #4 05-02-2007, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Not me... I'm more concerned with only 3 races total and all grouped in a short period facing questionable competition. He has a chance but I'll not bet him...that's far from saying he has almost no chance.

I'm not going to single Curlin or anything, but he's done all that he can do and is expected to do. If the fields were weak, he CRUSHED the weak fields by a combined 26 lengths or something.... he's going to run his hardest, I don't think a little interference is going to ruin his race. Even Barbaro stumbled and got bumped and won by 8 or whatever it was.

slotdirt · #5 05-02-2007, 01:58 PM

How is this post draw any different than any other post draw? Lots of horses get hung in miserable positions in major stakes races.

ArlJim78 · #6 05-02-2007, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

How is this post draw any different than any other post draw? Lots of horses get hung in miserable positions in major stakes races.

the number of horses is the difference. define miserable post position. usually that means nothing more than 10, 12, or 14 tops.

In the derby 1 and 20 in particular are beyond miserable.

slotdirt · #7 05-02-2007, 02:17 PM

I would suggest having an outside post in a 9f race at Gulfstream is probably just as crappy as having post 20 in the Kentucky Derby.

somerfrost · #8 05-02-2007, 02:19 PM

Here is some more data on the inside post, I'm not sure when the track was reconfigured to squeeze the inside, maybe someone here knows the exact year but to answer a question...the starting gate was installed at CD in 1930, since then 8 horses have won the Derby from pp#1...they are:
War Admiral (1937)
Lawrin (1938)
Gallahadion (1940)
Citation (1948)
Hill Gale (1952)
Needles (1956)
Chateaugay (1963)
Ferdinand (1986)
I'm pretty sure that I read that the change was made after Chateaugay as it was news when Ferdinand won...pretty sure they said he was the first...and last.

ArlJim78 · #9 05-02-2007, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Here is some more data on the inside post, I'm not sure when the track was reconfigured to squeeze the inside, maybe someone here knows the exact year but to answer a question...the starting gate was installed at CD in 1930, since then 8 horses have won the Derby from pp#1...they are:
War Admiral (1937)
Lawrin (1938)
Gallahadion (1940)
Citation (1948)
Hill Gale (1952)
Needles (1956)
Chateaugay (1963)
Ferdinand (1986)
I'm pretty sure that I read that the change was made after Chateaugay as it was news when Ferdinand won...pretty sure they said he was the first...and last.

I think you're correct, in this era the 1 post is considered a death sentence.

Scav · #10 05-02-2007, 03:05 PM

One thing about the post position is a horse like Closing Argument ran well from the 19 hole I think, either way, it was way the hell out there, and it gutted him for good but it is possible for them to run well from the outside