First set of KY Derby odds from Battaglia

cakes44 · #1 05-02-2007, 12:32 PM

The biggest differences between SS and AGS will be post position and SS's affinity for Churchill.

Buffymommy · #2 05-02-2007, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

The biggest differences between SS and AGS will be post position and SS's affinity for Churchill.

It would be kinda nice to have an Affirmed/Alydar rivialry again huh?

brianwspencer · #3 05-02-2007, 01:24 PM

Maybe Dunbar can comment, and maybe I'm nitpicking, or maybe my math is wrong -- but doesn't this line have a takeout of over 30%?

LARHAGE · #4 05-02-2007, 01:54 PM

I love Hard Spun at 15-1!!!!!

hockey2315 · #5 05-02-2007, 02:35 PM

These odds will change drastically when the pools open in my opinion. . .

brianwspencer · #6 05-02-2007, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

This concept was discussed a couple of weeks ago, I believe. My feeling was that the morning line odds of each race's entrants should equal 100 percent plus the takeout. Another poster had a similar thought, but the total might have been higher.

In either event, I don't think oddsmakers think this way.

Gotcha. I sort of followed that conversation, but wasn't sure what the general consensus was about it.

ArlJim78 · #7 05-02-2007, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

For mathematical reasons, I don't get too involved thinking about the morning line, but if Great Hunter is at a fat price on Saturday... he looked really good in his three-year-old comebacker and throw out the Polytrack result.

I see some value to that angle, not a bad play.

Fuofa · #8 05-02-2007, 02:14 PM

Hard Spun at 15-1 looks like a good price. If T-Berg can set some nice fractions I am going to put together a trifecta wheel with Hard Spun on top and Cq/Tiago/C Cat/Great Hunter to fill out the rest, and hope for the best. If Curlin is a freak, I am going to lose some money.

Scurlogue Champ · #9 05-02-2007, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

The biggest differences between SS and AGS will be post position and SS's affinity for Churchill.

Another difference is that AGS is a one-paced dog and will get 10th and Borel will get Street Sense on the outside of horses where he will hang in the stretch and finish 6th by a nose.

sumitas · #10 05-02-2007, 03:01 PM

I'm liking Scat Daddy at 10-1 and NBLSB.