Post Position Draw List

ArlJim78 · #1 05-02-2007, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moodwalker

I would think the 3 hole wouldn't be that bad for him

was just going to say the same thing, maybe not ideal but certainly not a big issue. If he loses post position won't be the reason.

whodey17 · #2 05-02-2007, 12:12 PM

The horse (Curlin) is so frail (in my opinon) that he would get crushed if he is down on the inside. No way can that horse survive all that physicial abuse he will get. I think the outside is the only option for him.

ArlJim78 · #3 05-02-2007, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodey17

The horse (Curlin) is so frail (in my opinon) that he would get crushed if he is down on the inside. No way can that horse survive all that physicial abuse he will get. I think the outside is the only option for him.

I think you are really exagerrating things. What post position is safe from bumping in the derby?

whodey17 · #4 05-02-2007, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think you are really exagerrating things. What post position is safe from bumping in the derby?

Well none, but the inside is much worse than the outside (in my opinion). I would be shocked if they took and inside post (unless that is their only option).

ArlJim78 · #5 05-02-2007, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodey17

Well none, but the inside is much worse than the outside (in my opinion). I would be shocked if they took and inside post (unless that is their only option).

look, the horse certainly has enough natural speed to break from the three hole and secure a reasonable running position while not totally compromising his running style. Did you notice in the Ark Derby with a shorter run to the turn he used that speed initially to deny Deadly Dealer an easy path to the rail?

An outside post would not be the end of the world for him either. In fact I think the PP draw is not that important in the derby. Except maybe for 1-2 and 19 and 20.

Cajungator26 · #6 05-02-2007, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How does everyone use the post positions. . . Do you toss all the outside horses? It shouldn't matter for closers (except maybe Street Sense) but if a horse like Any Given Saturday or Dominican (style wise) gets post 20 do they have a shot?

I take PP into consideration... definitely. The chances of a horse winning out of one of the far outside posts are probably slim.

Past winning post positions (past 20 years):

1986 - 1
1987 - 4
1988 - 8
1989 - 10
1990 - 7
1991 - 4
1992 - 7
1993 - 6
1994 - 6
1995 - 11
1996 - 4
1997 - 6
1998 - 2
1999 - 11
2000 - 12
2001 - 16
2002 - 5
2003 - 6
2004 - 15
2005 - 10
2006 - 8

miraja2 · #7 05-02-2007, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I take PP into consideration... definitely. The chances of a horse winning out of one of the far outside posts are probably slim.

Past winning post positions (past 20 years):

1986 - 1
1987 - 4
1988 - 8
1989 - 10
1990 - 7
1991 - 4
1992 - 7
1993 - 6
1994 - 6
1995 - 11
1996 - 4
1997 - 6
1998 - 2
1999 - 11
2000 - 12
2001 - 16
2002 - 5
2003 - 6
2004 - 15
2005 - 10
2006 - 8

You forgot one.
2007 - 9.

whodey17 · #8 05-02-2007, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

look, the horse certainly has enough natural speed to break from the three hole and secure a reasonable running position while not totally compromising his running style. Did you notice in the Ark Derby with a shorter run to the turn he used that speed initially to deny Deadly Dealer an easy path to the rail?

An outside post would not be the end of the world for him either. In fact I think the PP draw is not that important in the derby. Except maybe for 1-2 and 19 and 20.

oh come on, you cant seriously compare the Ark Derby field to this field. In addition, the turn is so quick at Ark and the turn at Churchill is much much longer. I agree he has tatical speed, but I dont think he would be able to secure a position by the first turn.

jman5581 · #9 05-02-2007, 12:40 PM

good thing the race isn't over at the first turn.

jpops757 · #10 05-02-2007, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

look, the horse certainly has enough natural speed to break from the three hole and secure a reasonable running position while not totally compromising his running style. Did you notice in the Ark Derby with a shorter run to the turn he used that speed initially to deny Deadly Dealer an easy path to the rail?

An outside post would not be the end of the world for him either. In fact I think the PP draw is not that important in the derby. Except maybe for 1-2 and 19 and 20.

While I agree PPdraw shouldnt hurt Curlin, when he draws one of the post you say that can be a problem will be what is available to him.

jman5581 · #11 05-02-2007, 12:46 PM

Curlin should take the 2 and use some speed early to get position in the second flight, I don't think this would take very much out of him....

And to the point trying to be made about being "frail".... Look, any horse could get bumped around at the start and have position compromised. It's not a quality of the horse and Curlin certainly hasn't shown the characteristics of a quitter!!

Rudeboyelvis · #12 05-02-2007, 12:21 PM

Hard Spun has been my pick - this draw confirms it. I would think that He and SS will be the top two favorites in the morning. You've got to think that either way, by drawing 18th, Curlin is screwed. If he can get it done, my hats off to him and his connections. I don't believe I'll be using him in anything but 3rd / 4th in a few of my super tickets

jman5581 · #13 05-02-2007, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodey17

The horse (Curlin) is so frail (in my opinon) that he would get crushed if he is down on the inside. No way can that horse survive all that physicial abuse he will get. I think the outside is the only option for him.

You obviously haven't seen Curlin in person...far from "frail."

miraja2 · #14 05-02-2007, 12:28 PM

Thank god Storm in May and Teuflesberg got the top two selections. It would have been a real shame if their chances had been compromised by poor post positions.

Cajungator26 · #15 05-02-2007, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Thank god Storm in May and Teuflesberg got the top two selections. It would have been a real shame if their chances had been compromised by poor post positions.

Too funny...

Downthestretch55 · #16 05-02-2007, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Too funny...

Well, the 13 looks like a definite toss.

somerfrost · #17 05-02-2007, 12:34 PM

When Curlin's connections select, I suspect #3 will be gone, a horse looking to show early speed will take #3, even #2 if they are dead set on gunning it. Certainly 20, 19, and 18 will remain along with #1...I suspect they will have to choose between #2 and #17.

Cajungator26 · #18 05-02-2007, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

When Curlin's connections select, I suspect #3 will be gone, a horse looking to show early speed will take #3, even #2 if they are dead set on gunning it. Certainly 20, 19, and 18 will remain along with #1...I suspect they will have to choose between #2 and #17.

Curlin really has it up against him...

whodey17 · #19 05-02-2007, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman5581

You obviously haven't seen Curlin in person...far from "frail."

Actually I have. I have seen him the past 3 days. There is a reason this horses didnt start at age 2 and I think it is because he is frail.

Cajungator26 · #20 05-02-2007, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodey17

Actually I have. I have seen him the past 3 days. There is a reason this horses didnt start at age 2 and I think it is because he is frail.

I have heard that Curlin is smallish, but the horse I'd consider 'frail' would be Circular Quay...