Dwyer Field pretty weak

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Exceller

KE put in quite an effort at 7.5F in the Hutcheson. I think 8.5F is perfect for him. More than anything, I just don't think much of anything else in the field. They probably pulled him from the Woody Stephens because they feel he has a shot at stretching out in the Haskell. I doubt it but 8.5F is perfect for him.

Using any horse's performance over a sloppy track to predict future races, especially when they have little other confirmed good form, is probably a mistake. And, how that performance, even if believable ( which I don't think it is ), makes 1 1/16th " prefect " for him is outside of my scope of reasoning. The simple fact is he has failed in both his attempts to stretch his speed and neither one were particularly tough spots. They were, I guess, good enough to win here. My biggest problem with this horse is that I strongly believe his best races are behind him.

I don't buy your reason for why he was scratched from the Woody Stephens, as he certainly could have competed in all these races, and believe the previous poster who mentionmed the gap in works is much closer to the true story.

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Using any horse's performance over a sloppy track to predict future races, especially when they have little other confirmed good form, is probably a mistake. And, how that performance, even if believable ( which I don't think it is ), makes 1 1/16th " prefect " for him is outside of my scope of reasoning. The simple fact is he has failed in both his attempts to stretch his speed and neither one were particularly tough spots. They were, I guess, good enough to win here. My biggest problem with this horse is that I strongly believe his best races are behind him.

I don't buy your reason for why he was scratched from the Woody Stephens, as he certainly could have competed in all these races, and believe the previous poster who mentionmed the gap in works is much closer to the true story.

Well we will know tomorrow because if he runs his race he wins easily against these slower horses. Notice JV is still on the horse so I will give the horse the benefit of the doubt considering his derby is a throw out.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Exceller

Well we will know tomorrow because if he runs his race he wins easily against these slower horses. Notice JV is still on the horse so I will give the horse the benefit of the doubt considering his derby is a throw out.

I'm confused, you think John Velasquez being on a Pletcher horse, who's also the favorite by the way ( aren't they all ), is a positive sign? He is the stable rider. Of course he's on the horse.

Yes, we will know tomorrow, but we are discussing it today. This horse will be in the even money range and, IMO, is an extremely poor bet. Of course he CAN win.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Using any horse's performance over a sloppy track to predict future races, especially when they have little other confirmed good form, is probably a mistake. And, how that performance, even if believable ( which I don't think it is ), makes 1 1/16th " prefect " for him is outside of my scope of reasoning. The simple fact is he has failed in both his attempts to stretch his speed and neither one were particularly tough spots. They were, I guess, good enough to win here. My biggest problem with this horse is that I strongly believe his best races are behind him.

I don't buy your reason for why he was scratched from the Woody Stephens, as he certainly could have competed in all these races, and believe the previous poster who mentionmed the gap in works is much closer to the true story.

I'm not sure I liked the fact he was just scratched from the Monmouth race against Henny Hughes Saturday either....to me, you want to train a horse a little different to get a niche distance like 1/16-miles around one turn versus a the sprint distance that he was cross-entered in at Monmouth Sat......I'm sure the entering at monmouth was more of an afterthought and more of just a security blanket, but still.....

As for his future, I still think that he has a monster upside and a lot of good racing in front of him IF THE DERBY DIDN'T RUIN HIM, which is a pretty big 'if' because we've seen it before....But, I'll tell you what, there was not 1 horse that looked and trained better than him the weeks leading up top the Derby at CD...not even Barbaro (they were close IMO)..Keyed Entry is a very, very good horse IMO and if 6 panels is not too shrt for his best effort then I really think he is a legitamate BC Sprint horse...we'll see......I will say that I will NOT like if he runs in the King's Bishop against the monsters he'll be in against off of the Dwyer on the turn back angle...not sure that is the best way to tackel Songster, Too Much Bling and Henny Hughes is to come in turning back like that...we might see...