Not raced at two results

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Let me ask you, what is the causal relationship between Showup losing to Barbaro, et al, last year, and Curlins chances against this group on Saturday.

There is a causal relationship between not racing at two and having an adequate foundation to race 10 furlongs the first Sat in May against a field of 15-20 horses. Since Showup and Curlin are different horses, the effect will be different...I can't say that because Showup didn't win, neither will Curlin...all I am saying is that they share the same circumstance (no race at two) and I cite data regarding the results of Derby horses with no race at two. I can see from the data (43 horses since 1956, probably over 100 easily since 1882) that 0% of horses with no races at two have won the Derby while approximately 6-7% of all horses running in the Derby have won...what one makes of that is up to the individual, it is simply data!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

There is a causal relationship between not racing at two and having an adequate foundation to race 10 furlongs the first Sat in May against a field of 15-20 horses. Since Showup and Curlin are different horses, the effect will be different...I can't say that because Showup didn't win, neither will Curlin...all I am saying is that they share the same circumstance (no race at two) and I cite data regarding the results of Derby horses with no race at two. I can see from the data (43 horses since 1956, probably over 100 easily since 1882) that 0% of horses with no races at two have won the Derby while approximately 6-7% of all horses running in the Derby have won...what one makes of that is up to the individual, it is simply data!

In a way man, I feel for you. I know you are just providing people with info and letting them figure out what to do with it.
I guess the problem is.....I don't think they should do a damn thing with any of it. If Curlin had run a 5f race last September, and then sat on the shelf for months (for whatever reason) before making his 3yo debut, he would be off the list, but would he actually have a more solid foundation?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

In a way man, I feel for you. I know you are just providing people with info and letting them figure out what to do with it.
I guess the problem is.....I don't think they should do a damn thing with any of it. If Curlin had run a 5f race last September, and then sat on the shelf for months (for whatever reason) before making his 3yo debut, he would be off the list, but would he actually have a more solid foundation?

Curlin didn't start racing until when? He has raced 3 times...I would question his foundation whether he raced at two or not based on his total of three. Again, logic and common sense come into play...a 5f race at two and two preps at three and I wouldn't value him any higher, a 5f race at two and four preps at three and I would certainly look at him!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Curlin didn't start racing until when? He has raced 3 times...I would question his foundation whether he raced at two or not based on his total of three. Again, logic and common sense come into play...a 5f race at two and two preps at three and I wouldn't value him any higher, a 5f race at two and four preps at three and I would certainly look at him!

Again, not to get into a lot of vet research but there are studies concerning the effects of 2yo racing on such things as lung capacity, bone density, muscle development...again, Brock...are you here? I know you cited some of these studies. Remember that if a horse raced at two, he/she also trained up to said race, so he/she had a lot more serious work (on average) than a horse who wasn't readied for racing until three.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Again, not to get into a lot of vet research but there are studies concerning the effects of 2yo racing on such things as lung capacity, bone density, muscle development...again, Brock...are you here? I know you cited some of these studies. Remember that if a horse raced at two, he/she also trained up to said race, so he/she had a lot more serious work (on average) than a horse who wasn't readied for racing until three.

I'll see if I can dig them out but youre correct, most of the studies Ive read advocate racing quite alot at 2 to get the benefits that you have mentioned!