sumwon!!

ateamstupid · #1 04-29-2007, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Why?

For one, it will do a lot to suggest where she could be placed. If she's got a figure in the low 60s, she could probably be dropped slightly without fear of a claim. If it's 80 or so, she's going to attract some serious attention at the claim box.

If Chuck wants to put her in a cheaper allowance, the figure is going to give a barometer of how she would compete at that level.

Your whole "forget the numbers" thing is tiresome. She was game AND she'll probably get a very fast number. They're both compliments. Why do we have to "forget the numbers"?

SniperSB23 · #2 04-29-2007, 04:16 PM

Based on the 4th and 7th the track looks fairly fast today. Anyone have DRF PPs to see what sort of figures Value Fund (winner of the 7th) had been running? His brisnet figures were a little higher than the fillies in the 2nd.

ateamstupid · #3 04-29-2007, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Based on the 4th and 7th the track looks fairly fast today. Anyone have DRF PPs to see what sort of figures Value Fund (winner of the 7th) had been running? His brisnet figures were a little higher than the fillies in the 2nd.

She had back figures in the high 70s, but her last three were in the mid-60s. Class drop might've boosted that today.

SniperSB23 · #4 04-29-2007, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

She had back figures in the high 70s, but her last three were in the mid-60s. Class drop might've boosted that today.

Thanks, seems like 70-72 would be a good guess for Sumwon then.

#5 04-29-2007, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

For one, it will do a lot to suggest where she could be placed. If she's got a figure in the low 60s, she could probably be dropped slightly without fear of a claim. If it's 80 or so, she's going to attract some serious attention at the claim box.

If Chuck wants to put her in a cheaper allowance, the figure is going to give a barometer of how she would compete at that level.

Your whole "forget the numbers" thing is tiresome. She was game AND she'll probably get a very fast number. They're both compliments. Why do we have to "forget the numbers"?

If Chuck has to rely on a low 70 or close to 80 beyer to figure how to place her, we are in trouble. So since we must rely on the numbers ateam, surely we must know how they are calculated... so help me with this. Show me how you arrived at your Beyer number using Beyer's methods. If you got each step on how your arrived at the number it would be helpful cause I dont know. I use the numbers mainly to compare horses coming in from different tracks. Some tracks give especially high numbers, some are too low when they actually meet. I especially enjoy the numbers when a turf race is taken off to the slop of the dirt (as I have no idea how the number was arrived at). I await your detailed method.

31lengths · #6 04-29-2007, 04:34 PM

where can i find a video of this race? funds are limited until May 5

brianwspencer · #7 04-29-2007, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 31lengths

where can i find a video of this race? funds are limited until May 5

Go to the Churchill Downs website and login there (if you're a CDSN online member. It's free to sign up, and you can watch any CDSN track's replays in the upper right corner of its homepage). Just select race 2, and click the little (+) sign and it will launch another window you can watch it in.

31lengths · #8 04-29-2007, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Go to the Churchill Downs website and login there (if you're a CDSN online member. It's free to sign up, and you can watch any CDSN track's replays in the upper right corner of its homepage). Just select race 2, and click the little (+) sign and it will launch another window you can watch it in.

thanks, Brian.

miraja2 · #9 04-29-2007, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Where did I suggest the bolded above? There are no scientifically accurate figures to describe something with as many variables as racing, you dont need to be scientific, I just want the recipe.
And horse that is an 8 year old running an 80 beyer v. a horse that is 2 running 60's could possibly yield very diff. market values. I would hope a claiming purchase would actually involve looking at the horse and how the horse ran(runs). And of course the market clearly involves heredity and sex...

I guess what I am saying is I am very happy with the horse's improvement and I will not be waiting anxiously for the Beyer she receives and using it to compare to her previous numbers. Maybe Chuck will. And I never stated you said it was scientific. I just want the method... the recipe. If I know how much time matters, level of competition, etc... and how much each is weighted in your number then I might be able to ascertain for myself if the number is descriptive.

ateamstupid is clearly right on this one.
pgardn, If YOU don't care what the number is - or even if you didn't care about speed figures at all - that would be fine.
His point is that since other people DO care about the numbers.....they do matter. If a horse runs a very good speed figure and you put her in a cheap claiming race in her next start, she is more likely to get claimed. That seems obvious to me. You might think that claiming a horse based on a speed figure is stupid....and maybe you're right....but other people do look at figures when deciding when to claim a horse.
Therefore the number the filly gets might be one factor - obviously not the only factor or even the main factor, but a factor nonetheless - in determining where she should go in her next start.

fpsoxfan · #10 04-29-2007, 05:13 PM

Great Job!! I'm looking forward to seeing her at Saratoga this summer. I'm happy for all you guys. You all must be very thrilled and proud.

philcski · #11 04-29-2007, 05:50 PM

If Chuck brings her back at 50K and she gets claimed away, what's the big deal about that? Yeah, she's special because she's the FIRST DeeTee, but if she gets claimed away, you've got a $25k profit to work with and that's some money to build off of.

She clearly "belongs" at this level. Hopefully she'll find the winner's circle next time after this tremendous effort.

Danzig · #12 04-29-2007, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

If Chuck brings her back at 50K and she gets claimed away, what's the big deal about that? Yeah, she's special because she's the FIRST DeeTee, but if she gets claimed away, you've got a $25k profit to work with and that's some money to build off of.

She clearly "belongs" at this level. Hopefully she'll find the winner's circle next time after this tremendous effort.

yeah, my head tells me the same thing....BUT! here's hoping we get to keep her for the year. in the money on dirt and poly, would love to see her on turf again. but i have complete faith in chuck to put her where she needs to be.

miraja2 · #13 04-29-2007, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

If Chuck brings her back at 50K and she gets claimed away, what's the big deal about that? Yeah, she's special because she's the FIRST DeeTee, but if she gets claimed away, you've got a $25k profit to work with and that's some money to build off of.

She clearly "belongs" at this level. Hopefully she'll find the winner's circle next time after this tremendous effort.

From a business perspective you are right, but I think the owners would prefer not to risk losing her for sentimental reasons. I'm not one of the owners so I don't know.....but I think their first priority might be not "losing her."
I can't blame them for that.

Danzig · #14 04-29-2007, 05:54 PM

would be a hell of an ROI...

pointman · #15 04-29-2007, 06:02 PM

Chuck, I want to thank you for an excellent job today. Sumwon looked great and was game right to the end. Congratulations to all the other partners, this looks like it is going to be a lot of fun! Steve, great job also, you guys obviously have an eye for a good buy, she proved today she is worth double her purchase price. Let's get the NY Bred rolling!!!

Danzig · #16 04-29-2007, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

Chuck, I want to thank you for an excellent job today. Sumwon looked great and was game right to the end. Congratulations to all the other partners, this looks like it is going to be a lot of fun! Steve, great job also, you guys obviously have an eye for a good buy, she proved today she is worth double her purchase price. Let's get the NY Bred rolling!!!

i second this post!!

thanks to chuck, steve, cherie, and mostly to sumwon--she's carrying a lot of weight!!

chuck, you're the man! lol

SniperSB23 · #17 04-29-2007, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

If Chuck brings her back at 50K and she gets claimed away, what's the big deal about that? Yeah, she's special because she's the FIRST DeeTee, but if she gets claimed away, you've got a $25k profit to work with and that's some money to build off of.

She clearly "belongs" at this level. Hopefully she'll find the winner's circle next time after this tremendous effort.

I don't have a problem losing her at $50K. The question is though do we drop her in for $30K next to get a win and take that risk? Personally I hope we try her at $50K again unless a perfect allowance comes up but I'm cool with whatever Chuck wants to do next.

ateamstupid · #18 04-29-2007, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't have a problem losing her at $50K. The question is though do we drop her in for $30K next to get a win and take that risk? Personally I hope we try her at $50K again unless a perfect allowance comes up but I'm cool with whatever Chuck wants to do next.

Not my call, but I'd say no. She was way too sharp today at $50,000, she's got HUGE shot of winning at that level after today's effort. Plus, she could easily get claimed for $30,000, but you'll probably get to keep her if she's up for $50k.

She's only going to get better.

Scav · #19 04-29-2007, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't have a problem losing her at $50K. The question is though do we drop her in for $30K next to get a win and take that risk? Personally I hope we try her at $50K again unless a perfect allowance comes up but I'm cool with whatever Chuck wants to do next.

You don't drop this horse ONE BIT. there would be 100 claims in for her at 30k or even 40k. She ran lights out today and if Martinez could have milked that 2nd quarter a little more (46/3 was way too quick, 23 internal) she wins this race, she had PLENTY in the tank and was coming back at the 2. Honestly, my guess is she might be claimed if you run her back for 50k by a guy like Amoss. This had to be her best sheet number and there will be plenty of races for her at Arlington/Churchill coming up. Plenty of Allowance opt claiming at either. Plus I think Churchill has the free shuttle up to here to Arlington, which the competition is alot lighter, either way, she ran awesome today

ateamstupid · #20 04-29-2007, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

You don't drop this horse ONE BIT. there would be 100 claims in for her at 30k or even 40k. She ran lights out today and if Martinez could have milked that 2nd quarter a little more (46/3 was way too quick, 23 internal) she wins this race, she had PLENTY in the tank and was coming back at the 2. Honestly, my guess is she might be claimed if you run her back for 50k by a guy like Amoss. This had to be her best sheet number and there will be plenty of races for her at Arlington/Churchill coming up. Plenty of Allowance opt claiming at either. Plus I think Churchill has the free shuttle up to here to Arlington, which the competition is alot lighter, either way, she ran awesome today

Bingo.