Is "Liking the Surface" At Churchill Overrated?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Late Fires

One of the reasons that I like Street Sense, Circular Quay and Any Given Saturday so much in the Derby is that all are proven over the Churchill strip. But as I look back at past Derby winners, it seems that you have to go back to Lil E Tee to find a Derby winner that had won a race prior to the Derby at Churchill. Am I putting too much stock into the fact that a horse is proven to "like the surface" at Churchill?

I think it's somewhat overrated in that just because a horse won a race over the track as 2-year-old doesn't mean he's going to run well over it in the Derby. It becomes almost a totally different track on Derby day. However, if you have a horse like Street Sense, who trains at Churchill, whose trainer is based at Churchill, whose rider knows the track inside and out and will be riding there all week before the Derby, then I think that certainly counts for something.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think it's somewhat overrated in that just because a horse won a race over the track as 2-year-old doesn't mean he's going to run well over it in the Derby. It becomes almost a totally different track on Derby day. However, if you have a horse like Street Sense, who trains at Churchill, whose trainer is based at Churchill, whose rider knows the track inside and out and will be riding there all week before the Derby, then I think that certainly counts for something.

I agree. It's certainly an angle that shouldn't be dismissed.
2 years ago, Don't Get Mad LOVED Churchill. He ended up winning the Derby trial, then wheeled back 1 week later and finished 4th (I believe) in the Derby.
I think you have to get SS credit for his BC win there, and you have to give CQ credit for his races there, as well as the long stretch to help him weave through traffic.

[Pedigree Ann]

What you want to watch out for is the horse who has trained and/or raced badly at CD. Horses who make heavy work of it getting over the surface, instead of moving smoothly. Skip Away never did run his race at CD, but could trounce the same horses elsewhere. It's like off tracks - it's not that some move up, it's that some absolutely can't run in it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Skip Away is the best recent example.

Just ask Carolyn Hine if liking the CD surface is overrated.

I think those questions have to be presented to Gene Stevens first.

[blackthroatedwind]

Wait, is the crux of Steve's argument based on something Mike Smith told him?

IMO the " he hated the track ", unless there is moiture involved, is at best the most ridiculous and overused argument in racing. It's phucking dirt.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wait, is the crux of Steve's argument based on something Mike Smith told him?

IMO the " he hated the track ", unless there is moiture involved, is at best the most ridiculous and overused argument in racing. It's phucking dirt.

But what if the dirt is "cuppy"?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

But what if the dirt is "cuppy"?

That's an entirely different story.

If a trainer says the track was cuppy that's a euphamism for " my horse sucked ".

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wait, is the crux of Steve's argument based on something Mike Smith told him?

IMO the " he hated the track ", unless there is moiture involved, is at best the most ridiculous and overused argument in racing. It's phucking dirt.

lmfao the wind speaks......

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'm drawing a blank on Gene Stevens. Some help here?

You've never been so lucky.

[SniperSB23]

A better way to look at it is probably to focus on the years where the BC was at Churchill:

1988 BC Juvy
Is It True - DNR
Easy Goer - 2nd in Derby
Tagel - DNR

1991 BC Juvy
Arazi - 8th in Derby
Bertrando - DNR
Snappy Landing - 17th in Derby

1994 BC Juvy
Timber County - 3rd in Derby
Eltish - 6th in Derby
Tejano Run - 2nd in Derby

1998 BC Juvy
Answer Lively - 10th in Derby
Aly's Alley - DNR
Cat Thief - 3rd in Derby

2000 BC Juvy
Macho Uno - DNR
Point Given - 5th in Derby
Street Cry - DNR

Tough call, 1992 was obviously a disaster but otherwise the horses hitting the board in the BC Juvy have done fairly well when running in the Derby although they have produced zero Derby winners.