Cowtown Cat......

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

Definitely downgrade his Ill. Derby. He rode a strong rail bias w/a aid of a crawlfest pace. In other words, it was the absolute most perfect trip possible.

I'm struggling with the Illinois Derby, because the race was obviously bias-aided as the rail was golden and speed was golden that day.

But he still managed to come home pretty quick (as he should after those fractions) under pretty mild urging from Jara.

[JJP]

You have to play against those types. This is like Cobalt Blue coming off his slow paced win, but Cowtown Cat also had the benefit of the bias. He's not as good as he looks on paper, and horses often finish big after they've conserved their energy in the most efficient way. Bold Start ran a better race, IMO, and Reporting for Duty closed ground on the slow pace so Cowtown Cat realistically was no better than the 3rd best horse in that race, IMO.

[declansharbor]

Coming off of a dream trip in the Ill., he will not get things to go like that with 19 other horses vieing for position..Bold Start couldnt hold a flame to the guys he'll be facing 5/5/07.. Total regression is expected by me..

[avance2000]

toss.

Doesn't appear to be fast enough.

[ateamstupid]

I don't particularly like him, but he'll probably be up on a slow pace, and if he gets the dream trip he got last time, he could get a slice.

[TheSpyder]

I like him alot. I think he's performances thus far lead to allow for him to improve. He's got a few races under his belt and he's the type who can benefit from the pace of the race which is not suppose to lightening fast.

He's in my top three.

Scott

[Bystander]

If you're going to discount Cowtown Cat's Ill Derby, kind of have to do the same with his Gotham win where he rode the rail 95% of the time against soft fractions, don't you think? I find it hard to believe he'll get even a remotely similar kind of setup at CD.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Bystander

If you're going to discount Cowtown Cat's Ill Derby, kind of have to do the same with his Gotham win where he rode the rail 95% of the time against soft fractions, don't you think? I find it hard to believe he'll get even a remotely similar kind of setup at CD.

Exactly. The only thing better than betting against a horse off a perfect trip is a horse off two (or more) perfect trips. The slow early/fast late wire jobs in Derby preps not only not win or hit the board, they usually aren't in the top 10. If you have an offshore account and there's a matchup bet pitting a Cowtown Cat against maybe a Chelokee or Bold Start, definitely go against Cowtown Cat.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by JJP

Exactly. The only thing better than betting against a horse off a perfect trip is a horse off two (or more) perfect trips. The slow early/fast late wire jobs in Derby preps not only not win or hit the board, they usually aren't in the top 10. If you have an offshore account and there's a matchup bet pitting a Cowtown Cat against maybe a Chelokee or Bold Start, definitely go against Cowtown Cat.

That would be all fine and dandy if Chelokee or Bold Start were in the gate on May 5th. LOL

Cowtown Cat has a better chance solely because he's actually running in the Derby.

[JJP]

[quote=Cajungator26]That would be all fine and dandy if Chelokee or Bold Start were in the gate on May 5th. LOL

Cowtown Cat has a better chance solely because he's actually running in the Derby. [/QUO

Don't count on it. Maybe Pletcher will come to his senses and realize he has several legit contenders and why ruin the horse by running him over his head? This is no War Emblem or Ten Most Wanted.