Derby angles

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

OK, as I do every year, here are the Derby angles which I consider and use as PART of handicapping the Derby...they are not RULES they are angles...consider if you like but they don't take the place of handicapping! I will go against them if I really like a horse (example being Barbaro last year). These involve win betting only:
1) Don't bet a gelding (Funny Cide did win in 2003, prior to that Clyde Van Dusen in 1929)
2) Winner must race in April (this is often written as within 5 weeks...Barbaro won the Fla Derby on 4/1 last year...outside 5 weeks but in April, Fla Derby run 3/31 this year...your call)
3) Must have at least 3 preps at three (last was Sunny's Halo in 1983, prior to that was Jet Pilot in 1947)
4) Must have 5 or more lifetime starts (Last was Exterminator in 1918)
5) Must have at least one 3yo prep of 8f or longer (last was Middleground in 1950)
6) No foreign-based horse (last was Canonero II in 1971)
7) No late Nominee (never won)
8) Must have at least one race at two (last was Apollo in 1882)
9) Must not have "RAN CURSE" (Barbaro was first to win)
10) No BCJ Winner (none have won)
11) Must have a stake win prior to Derby (Giacomo broke this in 2005, previous was Canonero II in 1971 but he did win one in Ven)
12) At least 16 pts in DP...prefer 18+ (documented earlier)
13) No more than 2 zeros in DP (no winners)
14) Must finish in top 4 in last prep...some prefer top 3
15) No horse with a million or more in earnings prior to Derby has won (seems to get weaker every year with more preps with large purses but still holds).
16) No horse with Damascus in sire's sire line has won (Curse of Damascus)...not usually many entries and I see no basis for this one, use at your own risk (none this year)
17) No prep race of 10f or longer (no winners). Again, until recently there weren't many...Dubai may run one now? Seldom comes into play.

Just keeping this on the front page...again I say, these are NOT to replace handicapping, merely to provide a tool for use by those who choose to do so! I have a good friend who I met on-line over 10 years ago, his lady is just now getting into racing, they go to River Downs and she's fallen in love with racing...I sent her these angles, for a new handicapper, they can be helpful in sifting through the massive amount of data available for the Derby.

[somerfrost]

Some stats on the RAN Curse (#9)...these are dated but they are the last I have (I stopped keeping a lot of stats a few years ago)...from 1980 to 2001, 25% of all Derby starters had RAN in sire's sire line, 23% had RAN in dam's sire line....9 winners from sire line, 0 from dam line. In addition, the winner in 2002, 2003, and 2004 had RAN in sire line. So, since 1980 there have been 12 winners with RAN in sire's sire line, 1 with RAN in dam's sire line. I'm not that industrious to figure out total # of starters in the past 26 years but I assume it's over 400, 23% of 400 is 92, so we'll say at least 90 horses with RAN in dam's sire line have started with 1 win.

[Withers]

I'm confused about #15 -- the million in earnings. Smarty Jones definitely had earned more than a million before he went for the Derby.

[slotdirt]

No he hadn't. He definitely hadn't.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

No he hadn't. He definitely hadn't.

Didn't he get a 5 million dollar bonus for sweeping the Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby or something like that?

Edit: Somer's post above explains.

[slotdirt]

Southwest, Rebel, Arkansas Derby, AND Kentucky Derby. He wasn't over $1 million heading into the Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Southwest, Rebel, Arkansas Derby, AND Kentucky Derby. He wasn't over $1 million heading into the Derby.

Thanks... I couldn't remember what it entailed.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Withers

I'm confused about #15 -- the million in earnings. Smarty Jones definitely had earned more than a million before he went for the Derby.

No, that's incorrect! His pre-Derby earnings were $878,355...most of that the $600,000 for the Ark Derby. His Derby win, due to the bonus that year for the Ark races and Derby was $5,854,800.

[Withers]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

No, that's incorrect! His pre-Derby earnings were $878,355...most of that the $600,000 for the Ark Derby. His Derby win, due to the bonus that year for the Ark races and Derby was $5,854,800.

My bad: you're right.

[alysheba4]

somer, im shocked your angles havent caused the usual squables that seem to happen year after year

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

somer, im shocked your angles havent caused the usual squables that seem to happen year after year

There have been some...here and in Curlin thread. All in all, folks aren't as ill-tempered as on the ESPN Board...one of many reasons we are all here!