Derby Future Odds, Presented by Dunbar

[Dunbar]

4/24 update

Overall odds are improving. Implied takeout is 2%, but doesn't include a couple of possible horses. (Slew'sTizzy, Imawild, eg)

AGS up from 16-1 to almost 19-1 at Pinny
Cowtown Cat down from 26.50 to 22.50 at TheGreek
Dominican up from 20.5 to 22.5 at TheGreek
Great Hunter up to 23.4 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 14.73 at Pinny
NoBiz up to 9-1 at World (still 8.85 at Greek)
Scat Daddy up from 9.13 to over 10-1 at Pinny
Stormello down from 75-1 to 30-1 at Pinny (Marky must have made his bet!). Best now is 52.50-1 at TheGreek
Street Sense down from 7.05 to 6.85 at TheGreek
Tiago up from 18-1 to 20.5 at TheGreek
Zanzero down from 37-1 to 30-1 at Bodog

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 18.91 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 22.5 Greek
Great Hunter 23.4 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 14.73 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 10.08 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20.5 TheGreek
Zanjero 30 Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 2%

--Dunbar

(Edited to remove Belgravia from list.)
(Edited to correct odds in list on Tiago and Zanjero)

[SniperSB23]

Good stuff, 19-1 on Any Given Saturday is extremely interesting. I can't see him going off higher than 12-1 on Derby Day and wouldn't be surprised to see him get under 10-1.

[MarkyD]

Hit a 100 on Stormello yesterday, he dropped to 30-1 right away.

Just hit 300$ on GH. he was +2340. As soon as I went back to look pinni dropped his line to +1800.

Next in line is my main bet Hard SPun. 400$. I am trying to see if pinni will bring him a little higher. Would like to get him at +1550.


GL

[hockey2315]

Curlin – 9/2
Street Sense – 6/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz – 9/1
Scat Daddy – 10/1
Circular Quay – 12/1
Any Given Saturday – 15/1
Hard Spun – 15/1
Tiago – 18/1
Dominican – 20/1
Great Hunter – 24/1
Zanjero – 28/1
Cowtown Cat – 30/1
Sam P. – 35/1
Liquidity – 50/1
Cobalt Blue – 60/1
Stormello – 75/1
Teuflesburg – 80/1
Sedgefield – 90/1
Storm in May – 100/1
Slew’s Tizzy- 100/1

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Curlin – 9/2
Street Sense – 6/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz – 9/1
Scat Daddy – 10/1
Circular Quay – 12/1
Any Given Saturday – 15/1
Hard Spun – 15/1
Tiago – 18/1
Dominican – 20/1
Great Hunter – 24/1
Zanjero – 28/1
Cowtown Cat – 30/1
Sam P. – 35/1
Liquidity – 50/1
Cobalt Blue – 60/1
Stormello – 75/1
Teuflesburg – 80/1
Sedgefield – 90/1
Storm in May – 100/1
Slew’s Tizzy- 100/1

Looks pretty good to me, hockey. The odds add to 104%, so you'd have to raise the odds on one or more horses to get it to 100%. But 104% is way closer to 100% than most people post.

According to your line, the biggest bargains in the futures right now would be Cobalt Blue (offered at 100-1) and SamP (offered at 45-1). Yesterday's 19-1 on AGS has disappeard.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Looks pretty good to me, hockey. The odds add to 104%, so you'd have to raise the odds on one or more horses to get it to 100%. But 104% is way closer to 100% than most people post.

According to your line, the biggest bargains in the futures right now would be Cobalt Blue (offered at 100-1) and SamP (offered at 45-1). Yesterday's 19-1 on AGS has disappeard.

--Dunbar

I thought I had it at 116% to account for take-out. . . maybe I did it wrong. . . I've never done one before

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I thought I had it at 116% to account for take-out. . . maybe I did it wrong. . . I've never done one before

Hockey, here's how you check whether the odds add to 100% (or to 116%, or whatever you are shooting for.)

Take each horse's odds, and calculate 1/(1+odds). Then add them up.

So, for Curlin you'd have 1/(1+4.5) = 0.182.
for Street Sense, you'd have 1/(1+6) = 0.142.
and so on down to Slew's Tizzy at 1/(1+100) = 0.010

When I add those up for your line, I get 1.045 (=104.5%).

It may be an interesting exercise to try to produce a morning line with a 16% takeout (to see how close you can come to the bettors?), but I think it's much more useful to work on a line where the odds add to 100%. If your "100% line" is good, then you can look for bets on horses with odds higher than those in your line. You can't do that when your line is a 16% takeout line. (well, you can do it, but you have to go far enough over to allow for the takeout.)

--Dunbar

PS--to convert the odds to takeout, there is actually one more step. You take the total (1.045 in your case), and calculate 1/1.045 = 0.957. That's the "pay back". The track take is 1 - "payback" = 1 - 0.957 = 4.3%.

For example, if you really want a 16% takeout line, then when you add up the terms 1/(1+odds) for each of your horses, it should add to 119%. Then the last step shows that 1 - 1/1.19 = 16%. Hope I didn't lose you on that one.

[Dunbar]

4/25 update
Several horse's odds have been pushed way up at Pinnacle due to heavy betting on Curlin. Check out Hard Spun and Scat Daddy, in particular.

AGS down from 19-1 to 14-1 at Pinny. Sniper must have struck!
Cowtown Cat down from 26.5-1 to 20.5-1 at Greek, but up to 23.57-1 at Pinny.
Curlin must be taking big action at Pinnacle. Down to 2.13-1. (Still 4.65-1 at Greek)
Dominican up to 23.67-1 at Pinnacle
Great Hunter up to 25.97-1 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 19.66-1 at Pinny
Scat Daddy up from 10-1 to 12.32-1 at Pinny
Tiago up to 22.69 at Pinny

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 15 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 23.57 Pinny (20.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 23.67 (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 25.97 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 19.66 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 12.32 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.69 Pinny (20.5 TheGreek)
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 0%. That's right. You could bet everyone of those horses proportionally, and the only way you'd lose would be if a horse not listed (eg, Slew's Tizzy) won.

Marky, if you haven't taken your Hard Spun yet, I suspect that today is the day to do it. The high odds at Pinnacle are probably a very short term aberration that resulted from some big betting on Curlin.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

4/25 update
Several horse's odds have been pushed way up at Pinnacle due to heavy betting on Curlin. Check out Hard Spun and Scat Daddy, in particular.

AGS down from 19-1 to 14-1 at Pinny. Sniper must have struck!
Cowtown Cat down from 26.5-1 to 20.5-1 at Greek, but up to 23.57-1 at Pinny.
Curlin must be taking big action at Pinnacle. Down to 2.13-1. (Still 4.65-1 at Greek)
Dominican up to 23.67-1 at Pinnacle
Great Hunter up to 25.97-1 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 19.66-1 at Pinny
Scat Daddy up from 10-1 to 12.32-1 at Pinny
Tiago up to 22.69 at Pinny

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 15 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 23.57 Pinny (20.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 23.67 (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 25.97 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 19.66 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 12.32 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.69 Pinny (20.5 TheGreek)
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 0%. That's right. You could bet everyone of those horses proportionally, and the only way you'd lose would be if a horse not listed (eg, Slew's Tizzy) won.

Marky, if you haven't taken your Hard Spun yet, I suspect that today is the day to do it. The high odds at Pinnacle are probably a very short term aberration that resulted from some big betting on Curlin.

--Dunbar

Wish I did, that 19-1 was a steal.

[Dunbar]

4/26 update
Some more big jumps at Pinny. Note Dominican, Great Hunter, and SamP in particular. Best odds on Street Sense drop from 7-1 to 5.25-1.

AGS up to 16.4-1 at Pinny
Cowtown Cat up from 23.57-1 to 30-1 at Pinny
Dominican up from 24-1 to 35-1 at Pinny
Great Hunter up from 26-1 to 35-1 at Pinny
Hard Spun down from 19.66-1 to 17.22-1 at Pinny
SamP up from 45-1 to 60-1 at Pinny
Scat Daddy down from 12.32 to 7.29 at Pinny (now 9-1 at World)
Stormello down from 75-1 to 30-1 at Pinny
Street Sense down from 7-1 to 5.25 at TheGreek
Tiago down from 22-1 to 14.71-1 at Pinny (still 20.5-1 at Greek)

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25.5 Greek)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 35 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 35 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Sam P 60 Pinny (45 Bodog)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is less than 1%. Tiny.

The action on Curlin at Pinnacle (now 5-2) continues to drive up Pinnacle's line on most of the rest of the field. Pinnacle now has the highest odds on 12 of the 21 horses in the list. World Sports Exchange is next with 5. TheGreek has 3. Bodog has just Zanzero, where it is offering the same 30-1 as Pinnacle.

--Dunbar

[MarkyD]

I can't believe that Great Hunter is now at 35-1. I got him at 24-1 and thought it was a steal. Besides his BlueGrass finish this guy has always fought with the big dogs in his races. I mean 35-1 seems so high, he should be around 15-1 / 20-1 Max.

People on Pinni keep pounding Curlin and CQ. Curlin was +210 yesterday afernoon. Do people no realize just bet him on derby day and you will probably get 9-2 odds on him.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

I can't believe that Great Hunter is now at 35-1. I got him at 24-1 and thought it was a steal. Besides his BlueGrass finish this guy has always fought with the big dogs in his races. I mean 35-1 seems so high, he should be around 15-1 / 20-1 Max.

People on Pinni keep pounding Curlin and CQ. Curlin was +210 yesterday afernoon. Do people no realize just bet him on derby day and you will probably get 9-2 odds on him.

Keep in mind that no one is betting Curlin at +210. But someone(s) probably did make a big bet at 3-1, which then knocked the Pinnacle price down to +210. Now, as the other horses are getting some action, Curlin has risen to +250. I'll be surprised if Curlin's odds don't rise back over 3-1 at Pinnacle.

Even making a big bet on Curlin at 3-1 is hard to understand when TheGreek has been offereing +445 to +465 all along. I would have expected anyone who might make a big bet at Pinnacle would be aware of TheGreek.

As for Great Hunter at 35-1, I can imagine how annoying that must be for you!

--Dunbar

[ateamstupid]

Looks like those wanting 6/1 on Street Sense on Derby day might be out of luck. Everyone seems to be on the SS train.

[tiznowthegreat]

Great Hunter at 35-1 is absolutely shocking to me.

[Dunbar]

4/27 update

Just 4 changes from yesterday:

Pinnacle's 35-1 on Great Hunter and Dominican are gone. Both are now about 26-1.
Circular Quay down from 11-1 to 10-1 at World; up to 10.15-1 at TheGreek
Tiago up from 20.50-1 to 22.50-1 at TheGreek.

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25.5 Greek)
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 26.62 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Sam P 60 Pinny (45 Bodog)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 2.5%.

--Dunbar

fyi, here's a note from sportsbookreview.com:

04.21.2007 (02:53 PM CST)

Bodog (SBR rating A+) check processing time extended to three weeks in some cases and as much as ten days for person to person transfers. Management tells SBR it expects processing time to be shortened as transfer volume decreases in baseball season and more processing options are added.

Not a good sign.

[Dunbar]

4/28 update

TheGreek added lines on Bwana Bull and Sedgefield. I'm adding them to the list and deleting Chelokee.

Otherwise, no changes! Highest odds from yesterday are still there today.

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Bwana Bull 50 Greek
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 26.62 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Sam P 60 Pinny (45 Bodog)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Sedgefield 60 Greek
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 4.5%.

--Dunbar

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Dunbar -
if you can...after the post position draw, can you give your morning line for the "Run for the Roses"?
You're much better with the math than me.
Thanks...

--- "HHH"

this is very interesting stuff.

thanks for the postings.

Hockey dont worry to much about the 100%. You would be hard pressed to find any M/L that adds to 100%. They are very often over 120%. I think very few people actually take the time to make the calculations with the exception of a small fraction of the betting public.

Oh yes, it you do see 9/2 just divide the two into the nine (and its 4.5/1) and do the same as Dunbar stated. Sorry if I stated the obvious.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Dunbar -
if you can...after the post position draw, can you give your morning line for the "Run for the Roses"?
You're much better with the math than me.
Thanks...

--- "HHH"

HHH, if you are looking for a guide to how the betting will go on Derby Day, then I think the list of futures is a reasonable estimate of the bettors' sentiments. The numbers seem to have stabilized the past 2 days.

A "morning line" should probably reflect the odds you get with a 16% takeout. The odds in the futures list are only reflecting a 4.5% takeout, so a few of the odds will go off at less than what's showing. I'm guessing Curlin will go off at around 7-2, and Street Sense will go off around 9-2. That would get the apparent takeout up to 11%. Your guess is as good as mine where the remaining 5% difference will come from. (and I could be way off wrt Curlin and Street Sense, for that matter.)

I can post my own line, but I am not brimming with confidence this year! The combination of horses running fewer preps and running some of those fewer preps on synthetic tracks has introduced even more uncertainty than usual. For me, at least.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

4/29 update

Bodog has taken down its line, but didn't have any solo "best" anyway.

Great Hunter down from 26.62-1 to 21.25-1 at Pinny.
World adds Bwana Bull at 60-1.
World drops Liquidity from 50-1 to 40-1.

I've dropped Reporting For Duty from the list.

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Bwana Bull 60 World
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 21.25 Pinny (18.15 Greek)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 40 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
Sam P 60 Pinny (40.5 Greek)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Sedgefield 60 Greek
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (not listed at Greek or World)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Pinny (25.5 Greek)

The implied takeout using these odds is 5%

--Dunbar