Arkansas Derby Field

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

... well, it's not as if I got both ends of Shaun Bridgmohan wrong ...

Excellent!

[VOL JACK]

Andy, I think U kinda like AGS. How much stock do U put into JV obting elsewhere? How much do U think it will help his odds? BTW, didn't he opt for keyed entry last year instead of BGC?

[cakes44]

PVal rode Keyed Entry into the ground last year. Johnny V was hurt and didn't ride in the Derby last year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Andy, I think U kinda like AGS. How much stock do U put into JV obting elsewhere? How much do U think it will help his odds? BTW, didn't he opt for keyed entry last year instead of BGC?

I honestly don't put much stock in who chooses what horse. One problem is you can't really know exactly why one rider opts for one horse over another. In a certain way you are supposed to ride the one with shorter odds...which in this case is Circular Quay. Maybe Circular Quay is a more likely winner of this Derby. Personally I am not a big fan, but I recognize that he may be better than I originally thought, though I find Pletcher's real reason for not running him in a prep unfortunate.

To me, Any Given Saturday has a good running style for the Derby, in that he places himself in races and shouldn't be a victim of pace one way or another, plus he has run enough good races that I tend to discount his Wood as the best indication of his ability. I just think he is likely to be the best price of the few legitimate contenders in this race.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To me, Any Given Saturday has a good running style for the Derby, in that he places himself in races and shouldn't be a victim of pace one way or another, plus he has run enough good races that I tend to discount his Wood as the best indication of his ability. I just think he is likely to be the best price of the few legitimate contenders in this race.

I agree w/ much of what you are saying but I dont agree there are few legitimate contenders. I dont think I can recall a derby w/ so many. I count maybe 8 or 9.

I would think that you would agree as your pet theory this year is that the field is so bad. Bad field = more contenders? Would think it would work like that in most scenarios. Great field = less contenders?

SO what ARE you saying? There are few legit contenders and these are so bad? Then why do the PPs seem to be so in line?

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Andy, I think U kinda like AGS. How much stock do U put into JV obting elsewhere? How much do U think it will help his odds? BTW, didn't he opt for keyed entry last year instead of BGC?

Ramon Dominguez was on BGC in the Derby.