Arkansas Derby Field

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Beyer disciples must be pulling their hair out...

Yes, what exactly does this mean?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yes, what exactly does this mean?

I'm saying the same thing, but AFTER the race.

How does one fairly evaluate this race from a speed figures perspective when the fraudulent pace dictates a final time that is worthless?
I've taken the same approach to the Blue Grass results for many years, cross it out and re-evaluate the candidates. I guess that's the right answer here too.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm just trying to figure out, Phil, what that great giver of knowledge meant by its initial comments in this thread. Certainly someone so giving wouldn't want to make a snide comment.....I'm sure there was some brilliance behind that post and I am just too stupid to figure it out.

[philcski]

I've stopped trying to make sense of 90% of the sh!t on here.
Just sifting through for the nuggets of useful information and let the rest rot away peacefully.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

I've stopped trying to make sense of 90% of the sh!t on here.
Just sifting through for the nuggets of useful information and let the rest rot away peacefully.

Perfect! You've stated exactly what's on my mind recently. I think I put it to someone yesterday that I would just let the crap float on by.

Same sentiment.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I've stopped trying to make sense of 90% of the sh!t on here.
Just sifting through for the nuggets of useful information and let the rest rot away peacefully.

I know, we really need a troll filter on here so we can just get to the good stuff without having to spend an hour wading through all the $h!t.

[SentToStud]

I'm wishing it was only 90%.

I read the speed figure threads and it's unbelieveable people spend so much time dissecting them, criticizing them, etc...

In the end, any speed figure is only one subjective measure. Someone else's speed figure is interesting and perhaps somewhat useful but the way people obsess over this stuff is insane.

You're far better off spending your time watching the races and forming your own ideas about who ran well/poor in spite of/because of/irregardless of how the races were run and how YOU think they'll move forward.

Nobody is going to win money unless they work at it and use their own creativity. If all you can come up with for a race that's three weeks away with no drawn field is criticism of a published speed figure, how the hell are you going to play a Wednesday card anywhere?

I think there's different ways to do good at this but the 3 or 4 decent or better horseplayers I know give very nominal consideration to someone else's figs (and only slightly more to their own) and spend most of their time on how races were and will be run and putting tickets together.

My own two cents on the Derby is that it's fruitless to bet to win on anything short and betting a longshot to win is only a stab. I will spend whatever time I invest looking to do two things; 1. Form negative opinions on two or more of the "name" horses to the extent that I can leave them off a tri or super ticket. Right now, NoBiz from an unfavorabe post is perhaps one. 2. I'll spend most of my time following the 'bottom' 2/3 of the field and hopefully come up with two or three that I believe have a better than conventionally thought chance of crashing the ticket at 25-1 to 50-1 (or whatever).

That's just my thoughts on how I'll spend my time on the race. For what it's worth, I won't spend very much time looking at Speed Figs and none on why they are right or wrong.

good luck.

[blackthroatedwind]

Excellent post.....however I cannot allow a man of your literary esteem to get away scott free for using " irregardless ".

[ArlJim78]

Sent To, very good advice for anyone.

I like the approach, throw out some of the marquee horses, and try to elevate some from the bottom third.

good approach for the derby, and lucrative it you make the right call.

anyone would be crazy to bet on a low priced horse in the derby.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Excellent post.....however I cannot allow a man of your literary esteem to get away scott free for using " irregardless ".

... well, it's not as if I got both ends of Shaun Bridgmohan wrong ...

Originally Posted by SentToStud

.

You're far better off spending your time watching the races and forming your own ideas about who ran well/poor in spite of/because of/irregardless of how the races were run and how YOU think they'll move forward.
... I will spend whatever time I invest looking to do two things; 1. Form negative opinions on two or more of the "name" horses to the extent that I can leave them off a tri or super ticket. ... 2. I'll spend most of my time following the 'bottom' 2/3 of the field and hopefully come up with two or three that I believe have a better than conventionally thought chance of crashing the ticket at 25-1 to 50-1 (or whatever).
....

this is excellent post but I will offer two slight modifications. It is okay to form your own conclusions, however it is also valuable to share information. Last year I did not realize Bluegrass Cat had been wrapped up in his last race, I would not be able to know that sitting in a vacuum, didnt cash but that's an example of good info. sharing.

Also, form negative opinions on one or two favorites, but do so for an objective reason. Not just "he's good candidate for bounce," or "I think he likes the track." Usually this stuff is not based on logic but hunches. The other thing is if you find one piece of information that is real/objective and different than the public try to cash it, but dont get cute by then finding a second and a third.

Just try to find one single factor, objectively that gives you an edge.

Real good post.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm just trying to figure out, Phil, what that great giver of knowledge meant by its initial comments in this thread. Certainly someone so giving wouldn't want to make a snide comment.....I'm sure there was some brilliance behind that post and I am just too stupid to figure it out.

Im really tickled pink that you wonder what I meant. All I was saying was that the first time started had no Beyer figs upon which to compare. I thought the previous poster had made refernce to Olympic Chief so my comment would be obvious, but then I think there was another post made in between so maybe the idea was lost.

Thanks for showing the love.