Beyer Fig from Saturday

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

Which is/was more deceiving?

Sinister Minister's 116 in '06

Or

Street Sense's 93 in '07


Maybe Beyer just likes to muck the Derby waters with "odd" figs for the Blue Grass... Who is he foolin!?!? When's the last time a BG winner went on to win the Derby!?!?

Sinister Minister's figure was accurate....he took advantage of an insane inside-speed bias and won by a pole. One of the horses beaten double digits returned to run 2nd in the KY Derby at giant odds, and later win the Haskell. Another horse beaten double digits in that race took the Super Derby and Dwyer.

Street Sense was by no means impressive in the Blue Grass. He barely beat Tufelsburg, who couldn't stay straight through the lane, and was passed from behind by winner Domincan. If Great Hunter doesn't get sawed off, you have five horses finishing within a half length of each other.

I realize very little can be learned from the Blue Grass---however, if Street Sense really was a dominant horse, and really ran such a big race at age 2 over the track like some suggest, shouldn't he have taken that race?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Street Sense was by no means impressive in the Blue Grass. He barely beat Tufelsburg, who couldn't stay straight through the lane, and was passed from behind by winner Domincan. If Great Hunter doesn't get sawed off, you have five horses finishing within a half length of each other.

I realize very little can be learned from the Blue Grass---however, if Street Sense really was a dominant horse, and really ran such a big race at age 2 over the track like some suggest, shouldn't he have taken that race?

When the fav for a race works 6 seconds slower than his previous work in his final work I take all further results with a grain of salt

[JDank34]

agree with Cannon. SS has 2 very big positives in his corner. first, Carl Nafzger knows exactly where he is with this horse and will have him happy and ready in 3 weeks. Secondly, on May 5th he gets to walk right out of his stall and race on a track he definately loves.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

When the fav for a race works 6 seconds slower than his previous work in his final work I take all further results with a grain of salt

Because he was "under-trained" coming into the race---or because you think it's possible the horse isn't right?

I never get too caught up in workout times....certainly not to say they don't matter in certain situations though.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because he was "under-trained" coming into the race---or because you think it's possible the horse isn't right?

I never get too caught up in workout times....certainly not to say they don't matter in certain situations though.

Times usually arent that signifigant unless they are extremes. I was watching SS work the other day and he broke off in a canter but was rolling in the stretch. Carl seemed very satisfied which leads me to believe that he was not really tuned up for Sat's race. A work that slow for a horse of that calibur is hardly an effort. I'd guess his pre derby work will be a little sharper. We'll see.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Times usually arent that signifigant unless they are extremes. .

This sounds rather obvious, but Im sure you didn't mean it that way.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Times usually arent that signifigant unless they are extremes. I was watching SS work the other day and he broke off in a canter but was rolling in the stretch. Carl seemed very satisfied which leads me to believe that he was not really tuned up for Sat's race. A work that slow for a horse of that calibur is hardly an effort. I'd guess his pre derby work will be a little sharper. We'll see.

I'm sure it will be atleast a little sharper. However, wouldn't the same line of reasoning also apply in the case of Curlin?

Street Sense's four furlong work in 1:04 flat was the 38th fastest of 39 to work the distance that morning---that proceeded a five furlong 58.40 bullet work.

Curlin came into the Arkansas Derby off of a four furlong work in 50 4/5th seconds. The 45th fastest of 46 to work the distance that morning. He worked a bullet six furlongs in 1:12 flat in his prior work.

FWIW, Street Sense also had a moderate four furlong in 51 flat maintenance breeze three days before his return in the Tampa Derby.