BEYER: Poly's Anti-Speed Bias

[MisterB]

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MisterB

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

Uh.. whining where? He is explaining the jockey reaction to the specific situation emerging at KEE and the affect it had on the bizarre Blue Grass we witnessed Saturday. While Beyer's Derby selection has become a humorous running gag, you and I would give left nuts to be half as successful betting the races on a DAILY basis as he. I would anyway.

[docicu3]

Gentleman.......this thread is about the bluegrass and the change in the wind of racing strategy.

MrB......fifteen yards for piling on and unnecessary roughness of a handicapper!!

I can see this is going to be a hyperkinectic week here on the trail. Coffee and breakfast anyone???

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Uh.. whining where? He is explaining the jockey reaction to the specific situation emerging at KEE and the affect it had on the bizarre Blue Grass we witnessed Saturday. While Beyer's Derby selection has become a humorous running gag, you and I would give left nuts to be half as successful betting the races on a DAILY basis as he. I would anyway.

Andy wrote:
I wrote last fall this was an ugly style of racing. Others disagreed. Keeneland President Nick Nicholson told me then that he liked the nature of the races, with bunched fields and tight finishes. The betting public didn't seem to object; Keeneland with Polytrack set wagering records.

But Saturday's races in Lexington, Ky., underscored all that is wrong with the synthetic surface.

That isn't whining? I love my left nut, and the right one too. So Andy's daily success is because of the beyers?? That's why he is so successful?? If this was true, we would all break the bank Steve, bring in the money truck.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Andy wrote:
I wrote last fall this was an ugly style of racing. Others disagreed. Keeneland President Nick Nicholson told me then that he liked the nature of the races, with bunched fields and tight finishes. The betting public didn't seem to object; Keeneland with Polytrack set wagering records.

But Saturday's races in Lexington, Ky., underscored all that is wrong with the synthetic surface.

That isn't whining? I love my left nut, and the right one too. So Andy's daily success is because of the beyers?? That's why he is so successful?? If this was true, we would all break the bank Steve, bring in the money truck.

B,

I've been as critical of Beyer as anyone.. (As evidence, my post-Giacomo piece criticizing his vicious analysis of that '05 Derby: http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/gue...5/050516.html).. But for the most part, Beyer is 'right' a huge percentage of the time about most topics in the game. As for the BSF's and his own horseplaying, obviously he and we can't and don't rely solely on the figs for wagering decisions. His own success at the windows is now a 3+ decade long run of remarkable and enviable prowess. It just can't be argued. Are the figures as revolutionary and effective as a handicapping tool as they were when introduced to the public? Maybe not.. But they still work just as DRF's original speed ratings 'still work'.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

B,

I've been as critical of Beyer as anyone.. (As evidence, my post-Giacomo piece criticizing his vicious analysis of that '05 Derby: http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/gue...5/050516.html).. But for the most part, Beyer is 'right' a huge percentage of the time about most topics in the game. As for the BSF's and his own horseplaying, obviously he and we can't and don't rely solely on the figs for wagering decisions. His own success at the windows is now a 3+ decade long run of remarkable and enviable prowess. It just can't be argued. Are the figures as revolutionary and effective as a handicapping tool as they were when introduced to the public? Maybe not.. But they still work just as DRF's original speed ratings 'still work'.

I guess my whole point here is, Beyers are discussed around here like they are the candy of racing, and people discuss them as if they are the sole predictor of an outcome. If people would stop and read your last post here, I feel they will now understand, even Andy doesn't use them as his sole guide to the winners circle. Are they useful, I guess so, if they mean anything on today's card, however, they are merely a rational of history, and one mans opinion on what he thinks

[philcski]

I like the competitiveness of the racing on the Poly, but the jockeys are turning this into a farce. It's becoming a self-fulfilled prophecy when they run a ridiculous 1:16 to the 3/8ths pole, turning the race into a 660 yard quarter horse race. The notion that it is impossible to win on the front end is crap. In the fall, there were 136 races run on the main track, of which 13 (10%) were won wire-to-wire, including one race with the fastest fractions of the entire meet (by a 33-1 shot), and 89 were won by horses within 4 lengths of the lead at the first call (a very normal percentage.) This is a lower percentage than typical for wire jobs (around 25% at Belmont or Saratoga or Churchill), but not as low as people seem to be feeling.

[ArlJim78]

While I admire and respect Beyer, I think he is just wrong on this one.

Since when is it assumed that the Blue Grass or any other prep race will be or should be definitive? In my view they are almost never definitive. No better example than last years Blue Grass run on the dirt. Did we learn anything from that with Sinister Minister romping?

Are we not supposed to have to work to figure this stuff out? Okay so this years Bluegrass was run in a style that we are not used to. So we'll have to learn what we can, maybe dig deeper in ways that we're not acustomed to.
There is nothing to say that next years Blue Grass will be run the same way as this years addition.

I like it because it makes it more complex, challenges you to think about what you've watched. It's another puzzle piece to consider, a race run with a different pace set-up, on a different surface. It highlights different attributes of the horses. Its only a hunch of mine at this point, but I think there is a chance that down the road we will look back on this years Blue Grass and say "Oh, well it did tell us something after all". we'll just have to see about that.

I love it that you've basically got someone like Andy Beyer, one of the true gods of racing imo, throwing up his hands and saying "I don't know, can't figure it out".

I see it as an opportunity.

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

While I admire and respect Beyer, I think he is just wrong on this one.

Since when is it assumed that the Blue Grass or any other prep race will be or should be definitive? In my view they are almost never definitive. No better example than last years Blue Grass run on the dirt. Did we learn anything from that with Sinister Minister romping?

Are we not supposed to have to work to figure this stuff out? Okay so this years Bluegrass was run in a style that we are not used to. So we'll have to learn what we can, maybe dig deeper in ways that we're not acustomed to.
There is nothing to say that next years Blue Grass will be run the same way as this years addition.

I like it because it makes it more complex, challenges you to think about what you've watched. It's another puzzle piece to consider, a race run with a different pace set-up, on a different surface. It highlights different attributes of the horses. Its only a hunch of mine at this point, but I think there is a chance that down the road we will look back on this years Blue Grass and say "Oh, well it did tell us something after all". we'll just have to see about that.

I love it that you've basically got someone like Andy Beyer, one of the true gods of racing imo, throwing up his hands and saying "I don't know, can't figure it out".

I see it as an opportunity.

Sinister Minister was a freak that day...where is he now?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

While I admire and respect Beyer, I think he is just wrong on this one.

Since when is it assumed that the Blue Grass or any other prep race will be or should be definitive? In my view they are almost never definitive. No better example than last years Blue Grass run on the dirt. Did we learn anything from that with Sinister Minister romping?

Are we not supposed to have to work to figure this stuff out? Okay so this years Bluegrass was run in a style that we are not used to. So we'll have to learn what we can, maybe dig deeper in ways that we're not acustomed to.
There is nothing to say that next years Blue Grass will be run the same way as this years addition.

I like it because it makes it more complex, challenges you to think about what you've watched. It's another puzzle piece to consider, a race run with a different pace set-up, on a different surface. It highlights different attributes of the horses. Its only a hunch of mine at this point, but I think there is a chance that down the road we will look back on this years Blue Grass and say "Oh, well it did tell us something after all". we'll just have to see about that.

I love it that you've basically got someone like Andy Beyer, one of the true gods of racing imo, throwing up his hands and saying "I don't know, can't figure it out".

I see it as an opportunity.

So what conclusions have you drawn from this race? What different "attributes" were highlighted to you in the horses who ran well?

It's easy to say that we can draw something from the Blue Grass or it'll prove to be important later on, but I've yet to see you make any declarations regarding the race.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by MisterB

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

I'd say he is far from whining. He is offering a very real assessment of how that race was run and provided emperical evidence on how other Derby preps were run. For the horses not winning in the race, I'm drawing a line through it, and for Dominican, a win is a win, but there is no way he can expect 26.1 and 51 and change for the first half in the Derby, and turn the race into a 400 yard sprint to the finish like was done Saturday. I don't often agree with Beyer, but in this case, he is spot on.

[brianwspencer]

I think I'm more or less inclined to toss that race when capping the Derby. It obviously stamped Dominican as a horse to watch, but I'm not sure that it did much to lower the stock of Sense or Hunter in my eyes. It was the total opposite of last year's Blue Grass with the same result -- that I'm not really sure what to make of it.

[Jax Cajun]

This thread is all over the board, all I can say about the Beyer figures is that if you don't like 'em don't use 'em and I'll be glad to take your money.

About synthetic surfaces: We just don't have enough data to incorporate it in our normal handicapping, especially when shippers move in. It's one thing to 'cap races where all horses have experience on it, but it's just a guess when you have dirt and turf invaders in the same race on the poly for the first time. I think we've seen horses recover faster from it from the Hollywood - Santa Anita transition, but there is nothing to go on with first time synthetic.

[blackthroatedwind]

The simple fact is that in every thread here that involves Beyer you cannot help but write some version of the same post criticizing Beyer. You are certainly entitled to your opinions but those of us that disagree, or notice this habit of yours, are also entitled to respond in kind. Your initial post in this thread made assumptions that you do not have any actual knowledge about and made comments which were unrelated to the specific content of the thread. You don't like Beyer. Get in line. You're not forming your own line, as you are part of a great deal of internet hotshots that do the same thing, so please don't present yourself as a leader.

Funny, I read a lot of posts similar to yours on the internet, yet in my many years spent at the racetrack I have never seen ANYONE express these same thoughts to his face. I HAVE seen hundreds, if not thousands, of people compliment him. I wonder why that is.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The simple fact is that in every thread here that involves Beyer you cannot help but write some version of the same post criticizing Beyer. You are certainly entitled to your opinions but those of us that disagree, or notice this habit of yours, are also entitled to respond in kind. Your initial post in this thread made assumptions that you do not have any actual knowledge about and made comments which were unrelated to the specific content of the thread. You don't like Beyer. Get in line. You're not forming your own line, as you are part of a great deal of internet hotshots that do the same thing, so please don't present yourself as a leader.

Funny, I read a lot of posts similar to yours on the internet, yet in my many years spent at the racetrack I have never seen ANYONE express these same thoughts to his face. I HAVE seen hundreds, if not thousands, of people compliment him. I wonder why that is.

Again, your confused. I never said anything negative about Andy the person or player. I criticize the importance you and millions of others put into Beyers, not Andy Beyer the person. I have no problem going face to face with anyone, and discuss the theories of anything. I read every book Andy wrote, and I like them all, so this is not a personal attack on Mr. Beyer. People post about Beyers, and I counter with my dislike. I think they should know, don't get caught up in the beyer syndrome, it isn't a magic wand for capping horse races. You can't find one thread I started about beyers, or Andy Beyers the person, just replies to people who talk about them all the time, like they are water in a desert.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Again, your confused. I never said anything negative about Andy the person or player. I criticize the importance you and millions of others put into Beyers, not Andy Beyer the person. I have no problem going face to face with anyone, and discuss the theories of anything. I read every book Andy wrote, and I like them all, so this is not a personal attack on Mr. Beyer. People post about Beyers, and I counter with my dislike. I think they should know, don't get caught up in the beyer syndrome, it isn't a magic wand for capping horse races. You can't find one thread I started about beyers, or Andy Beyers the person, just replies to people who talk about them all the time, like they are water in a desert.

I guess it was the first post of yours in THIS thread, which contradicts your thoughts in the above post, that threw me off.

Originally Posted by MisterB

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

I'd say he is far from whining. He is offering a very real assessment of how that race was run and provided emperical evidence on how other Derby preps were run. For the horses not winning in the race, I'm drawing a line through it, and for Dominican, a win is a win, but there is no way he can expect 26.1 and 51 and change for the first half in the Derby, and turn the race into a 400 yard sprint to the finish like was done Saturday. I don't often agree with Beyer, but in this case, he is spot on.

OK, what does the other derby preps have anything to do with this one? Evidence of what, he doesn't like poly tracks. he disagrees with the bettors and the President of Keeneland. What point did he make, other than cry like a baby about the poly.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

OK, what does the other derby preps have anything to do with this one? Evidence of what, he doesn't like poly tracks. he disagrees with the bettors and the President of Keeneland. What point did he make, other than cry like a baby about the poly.

The only whiner in any way associated with this is obviously you, someone who through their continued uninformed knocking of Andy Beyer shows an obvious all-consuming jealousy of him, as well as a likely complete dissatisfaction with your own poor results. Criticizing someone who has done as much for horseplayers as Andy Beyer has just exposes you.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The only whiner in any way associated with this is obviously you, someone who through their continued uninformed knocking of Andy Beyer shows an obvious all-consuming jealousy of him, as well as a likely complete dissatisfaction with your own poor results. Criticizing someone who has done as much for horseplayers as Andy Beyer has just exposes you.

I am not knocking Andy personally, and you have no problem knocking me, so what is your point Throat? You believe in Beyers, and are close friends with Andy, so what. I have my own theories on Horse racing, and it is not Beyers, so I am not allowed to disagree with Andy, you or anyone else?

I Got it

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

I am not knocking Andy personally, and you have no problem knocking me, so what is your point Throat? You believe in Beyers, and are close friends with Andy, so what. I have my own theories on Horse racing, and it is not Beyers, so I am not allowed to disagree with Andy, you or anyone else?

I Got it

I love it when someone posts something indefensible and then whines " Oh, I guess I'm not allowed to have my own opinion ".