Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Really? What is it that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

Disclaimers:

All of this could be null and void once I look at the Sheets and see if he's fast enough...

Assumptions:

As has been discussed these are average horses this year
They are all a little on the slow side

I don't care about Derby myths, Voodoo or anything to do with breeding other to look at the sire and dam sire and see if they might be precocious and see if they have some distance limitations(based on races run). Most of that to me is nonsense and just people trying to act like they know what they are talking about.

We have a horse in Cowtown that will be overlooked big time on the Derby.

Here's a horse that was brilliant enough at 2 to track a fast pace and kick out a Beyer of 92 at 5 1/2f.

He's tractable enough to carve out slow fractions on or off the pace.

He doesn't appear to me to be speed crazy to me, he's not fighting the rider.

He's won 2 two turn stakes back to back.

His last appeared slow, but I believe he got a 98 Beyer.

He's going to have 4 preps and 4 weeks off, let's see what the reports come back on him during Derby week. He might be thriving.

There's no standout in my opinion and no one, unless it happens this weekend(which I doubt) is throwing big numbers.

This is a very average group of horses, again let's see what the most important figures come back, if he looks good on the Sheets, he can win.
I like his versatility and that's a big factor in the Derby. It's not like he's 10 points slower on the Beyers than anything this year, as long as the legit figures show he's fast enough, I"ll have no problem using him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

I really like that phrase....."dramatically sub-par." I am going to have to start using that one.
It is also very apt in this case.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

If this was any other year, I would not give Cowtown Cat a second look, but these horses are all slow. His best Beyer only trails the best Derby 3yo Beyer by 5 points, that difference can be easily achieved by a 3yo at this time of year. Your points of the perfect trips and easy leads are well taken, but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups. He doesn't fight the rider and can be used however the pace scenario dictates. It's not like he is a one hit wonder, his best Beyer as a 2yo and 3yo is only seperated by 8 points, that's not a huge difference giving the allowance for age improvement. I don't believe in all of these Derby myths, but he's coming into this race great, 2yo foundation, solid 3yo campaign, and 4 weeks until the Derby. When you are trying to seperate horses, I view this as a positive. There's some speed horses in here that are quitters this year, Stormello, Liquidity, Teuflesburg, maybe they all don't go, but I would take my chances with Cowtown than any of these guys.

I really don't care what kind of remarks are made, it's not important to me, what others think. I don't think I am stepping that outside of the box with Cowtown Cat relative to this years competition, but if others do that's fine, it should help the case at the window. It's like in Baseball or Basketball, when comparing players to other eras, it's not relevant, unless they are playing against each other. Cowtown is not running against last years horses and it doesn't matter what has happened in the past relative to this year.

[Travis Stone]

I can't argue with some of the logic of Cowtown Cat. But 20-1 closing odds in the future pool, which could easily be his price on Derby Day, leads me elsewhere.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Your points of the perfect trips and easy leads are well taken, but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups.

Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.

Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.

Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.

If Cowtown Cat wins The Derby I will have a duncecap surgically attached to my head. He should be able to handle Teuflesberg....maybe even Love Dubai (if he makes the derby)...but thats about it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

If Cowtown Cat wins The Derby I will have a duncecap surgically attached to my head. He should be able to handle Teuflesberg....maybe even Love Dubai (if he makes the derby)...but thats about it.

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

Thats exactly why I mentioned the horse. I just cant help myself from taking shots at Drugs.

Did Love Dubai even finish running in the Bluegrass yet?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

hey....he improved his figure by 35 points......but yeah, I thought he could round out a superfecta.

You and Pete pick your spots....

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.

Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.

My post suggests no such thing, my post suggests that he's tactical enough to be where he needs to be, that's my point. You may have your fan club on here, but do not talk down to me. I think I made good points and stated them clearly, but you only want to interject your opinion of what I may be thinking. I don't know how someone can be so bold to throw out so many of this years contenders, they are all so closely grouped that I would listen to almost anyone's opinion on the Derby this year. Also, I don't know how you can say that he's so slow that he's only 5 points off the top Beyer for this year, that's not a huge disparity. He may very well lose the Derby and so will 19 other horses, but to say he won't win again is beyond me. Also, look at how slow some of the fractions have been this year. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could be out there loose with an easy lead.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

My post suggests no such thing, my post suggests that he's tactical enough to be where he needs to be, that's my point. You may have your fan club on here, but do not talk down to me. I think I made good points and stated them clearly, but you only want to interject your opinion of what I may be thinking. I don't know how someone can be so bold to throw out so many of this years contenders, they are all so closely grouped that I would listen to almost anyone's opinion on the Derby this year. Also, I don't know how you can say that he's so slow that he's only 5 points off the top Beyer for this year, that's not a huge disparity. He may very well lose the Derby and so will 19 other horses, but to say he won't win again is beyond me. Also, look at how slow some of the fractions have been this year. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could be out there loose with an easy lead.

First of all the following are YOUR words and they are what I answered...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups.

As for your insults about my supposed " fan club " and " talking down to you "....so that's what it is? You have some problem with me and are interpreting my comments because of it? That's absurd and nothing about my response was " talking down to you ". I answered what YOU said.

I stated my opinion about Cowtown Cat. You don't agree....that's fine. But making personal remarks are completely unnecessary and the kind of crap that makes people not want to post here.

[JDank34]

A GREAT change was announced today from Team Pletcher regarding AGS...Garrett Gomez has accepted the mount.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all the following are YOUR words and they are what I answered...



As for your insults about my supposed " fan club " and " talking down to you "....so that's what it is? You have some problem with me and are interpreting my comments because of it? That's absurd and nothing about my response was " talking down to you ". I answered what YOU said.

I stated my opinion about Cowtown Cat. You don't agree....that's fine. But making personal remarks are completely unnecessary and the kind of crap that makes people not want to post here.

I do not have any problem with you, this is the 2nd time you have made remarks about something that I have posted that I believe are in bad taste and I don't really care for it.

You had to put your little spin in there about the horse being smart enough where to run, that was uncalled for

And me calling you out for your subtle slight is not going to get someone from not posting here, it's the slight that would cause them not to post.

You can't always chalk a horse up to winning, because of taking advantage of pace set ups, sometimes it's the talent of the horse to be adaptable enough to win under different scenarios, the horse has won at 4 different tracks.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

you underestimate todd pletcher.....didnt you say the same about pollards vision a couple years back?

[ateamstupid]

I like Windu's logic on this one. I think this is the exact type of race (a lot of inseparable horses and not too large of a dichotomy between the top tier and the second tier) where a bomb can come in. With that said, I think the winner will come from the group of Curlin, SD, NLS, CQ, SS, Tiago, HS and AGS, but upon further inspection, I'll probably chuck a few of those and find some bombs that I like to take their places. Cowtown Cat will probably be around 30/1, which I think is very good value considering that his IL Derby figure was the same as NLS' Wood figure and SD's FL Derby figure.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I like Windu's logic on this one. I think this is the exact type of race (a lot of inseparable horses and not too large of a dichotomy between the top tier and the second tier) where a bomb can come in. With that said, I think the winner will come from the group of Curlin, SD, NLS, CQ, SS, Tiago, HS and AGS, but upon further inspection, I'll probably chuck a few of those and find some bombs that I like to take their places. Cowtown Cat will probably be around 30/1, which I think is very good value considering that his IL Derby figure was the same as NLS' Wood figure and SD's FL Derby figure.

Cowtown Cat is an underlay at 100-1. He is SLOW. He has never run anything even remotely close to a good race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat is an underlay at 100-1. He is SLOW. He has never run anything even remotely close to a good race.

What will you be wearing if he wins the Derby?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

What will you be wearing if he wins the Derby?

I don't know.....what will you be wearing when he runs in the second half of the field?

Why should I always be the one accountable for bad opinions?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know.....what will you be wearing when he runs in the second half of the field?

Why should I always be the one accountable for bad opinions?

I didn't say I liked him really. I said I thought 30/1 was an overlay and that I like PG's thinking in trying to go against the grain because I don't think there's a huge disparity between the top tier and the rest of the field.

You, on the other hand, basically said he's going to run 21st, which is a much stronger statement, and you already were shown up by the horse once, so I'm wondering what'll happen if he runs big again.