Beyer Fig from Saturday

philcski · #1 04-15-2007, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoronadosQuest

Do you know what Storm In May got in the Arkansas Derby? or what Takedown's BSF was in the Northern Spur. Just want something to compare Curlin's 103 BSF to. Also, was Street Sense's BSF also a 93? Zanjero's?

Storm in May would be an 86 based on the Beyer beaten lengths chart.

ateamstupid · #2 04-15-2007, 07:14 PM

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

brianwspencer · #3 04-15-2007, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

I couldn't be happier. That's pretty much exactly what I wanted to happen as far as odds.

Now I can focus on a pick-4 on Derby Day and a healthy win bet on Sense with the potential for a good return.

ateamstupid · #4 04-15-2007, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I couldn't be happier. That's pretty much exactly what I wanted to happen as far as odds.

Now I can focus on a pick-4 on Derby Day and a healthy win bet on Sense with the potential for a good return.

Wait, you're actually gonna be betting?! Just kidding.

brianwspencer · #5 04-15-2007, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Wait, you're actually gonna be betting?! Just kidding.

GASP! Yep, I'm even willing to ruin my week by working overtime on Tuesday to have extra cash for Derby day.

Uncle Daddy · #6 04-15-2007, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

I agree, stupid money will atalk about the Juvenile jinx and you may get 5 or 6 to 1. If you still like Graet Hunter, I would think it jumps to 15 0r 20

XIIPointStables · #7 04-15-2007, 07:56 PM

That's a good point about the SS Beyers/novice money. Even the weekend player (like myself) might see the last three Beyers

108 BC Juv
102 TB Derby
93 Blue Grass

and concur the horse is going the wrong way and the price may be a healthy 6 or 7 to 1.

We can hope at least.

ateamstupid · #8 04-15-2007, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

That's a good point about the SS Beyers/novice money. Even the weekend player (like myself) might see the last three Beyers

108 BC Juv
102 TB Derby
93 Blue Grass

and concur the horse is going the wrong way and the price may be a healthy 6 or 7 to 1.

We can hope at least.

That's definitely right. I think that even some of us self-proclaimed "non-novice" bettors will look at the Form and be subconsciously pushed away from Street Sense because of that pattern. While most of us here are rational enough to see past it, I think some other bettors looking for a reason to play against him will shy away.

For the record, I think he has a great shot and he'll be on all of my tickets.

ateamstupid · #9 04-15-2007, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

What do you think would be the wagering impact if Thorograph, Ragozin, and/or Brisnet Speed/Pace Figures had more favorable impressions of Street Sense's Blue Grass run?

I think very little. Maybe half a point. The Derby takes more "novice" money (i.e. people who bet on races casually and only/mainly use BSFs) than any other race of the year, so I don't think all of the players that use the figures you listed above will have that much of an impact.

Antitrust32 · #10 04-15-2007, 07:46 PM

93 or not, I remember Street Sense last year off the poly onto Churchill...
I think that is where my money goes..

brianwspencer · #11 04-15-2007, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

93 or not, I remember Street Sense last year off the poly onto Churchill...
I think that is where my money goes..

But like J said, is the novice money going to be able to detect the potential turnaround on that pattern angle?

Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled, I just don't see him as your favorite anymore. Wouldn't be shocked if Nobiz gets bet down more than he does too.

Antitrust32 · #12 04-15-2007, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

But like J said, is the novice money going to be able to detect the potential turnaround on that pattern angle?

Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled, I just don't see him as your favorite anymore. Wouldn't be shocked if Nobiz gets bet down more than he does too.

i really hope he is not the favorite!! I am just saying that is where my money goes! I'll have to find a few other horses to play some exotics, but I have plenty of time for that!

ateamstupid · #13 04-15-2007, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

There is no way to quantify this, but my impression is that novice bettors' money comprises a small percentage of the Kentucky Derby mutuel wagers. The whales in the game use these sheets and figures.

The novice bettors -- people who wager only a few times each year, or only on each Triple Crown race -- wager $10 or $20 on their selections, while the whales are putting up thousands of dollars on the race.

I don't know. There are a lot of "big shots" who come out on Derby day and bet hundreds of dollars at a time without more than a passing knowledge of racing.

Grits · #14 04-15-2007, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't know. There are a lot of "big shots" who come out on Derby day and bet hundreds of dollars at a time without more than a passing knowledge of racing.

I agree with Ateam about this. On Derby Day, there are far more "big shots" with deep pockets betting equal thousands to match anything the whales are churning.

Michael Jordan, Kid Rock, and every other celebrity, sports superstar, politician, and CEO at Churchill and throughout the country, going to the windows, is not saying . . . "give me $20 to win on the 9 horse."

Many are betting hundreds, and thousands.

#15 04-16-2007, 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

I agree with Ateam about this. On Derby Day, there are far more "big shots" with deep pockets betting equal thousands to match anything the whales are churning.

Michael Jordan, Kid Rock, and every other celebrity, sports superstar, politician, and CEO at Churchill and throughout the country, going to the windows, is not saying . . . "give me $20 to win on the 9 horse."

Many are betting hundreds, and thousands.

well if they've already locked onto the 9 horse there go the odds on the winner