Performance Figures for top preps

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

So what it says is the Roman numbers are completly meaningless in picking a Derby winner. Last year his second worst prep performance won the Derby...in 2005, his by far worst prep's 4th place finisher won the Derby. Only Smarty in 2004 was true to his form. I think it is beyond psychotic for Roman to say Teuflesberg ran a better race than Curlin yesterday.

If you bet the Derby based on which horse obtains the best sheet number in a single race, which horse has the single highest Beyer or which horse has the best PF, you are the psychotic one. Instead of finding a way to be critical (and appear rather ignorant of basic handicapping), I'd suggest using the PF's (or Beyers or Sheets) in the way in which they were meant to be utilized...as part of the handicapping process! All any speed figures will give you is the basis for a comparative analysis of different races at different tracks...if handicapping a race like the Derby were as easy as just picking some number, I suspect even you could select the winner.