What kinda price DO YOU want on you're Derby pick???

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'm glad that you picked up on this concept. I think it is OK if his projected odds added up to 100% plus the takeout, but I like your thinking on his post. Track oddsmakers never consider this idea, which is why ML odds are somewhat useless.

Right Cardus. The ML odds set by the track oddsmakers usually add up to well over the track takeout. For the Arkansas Derby yesterday, the morning line added to 131%, which would only be reasonable if the takeout was 24%.

I wasn't sure if Hickory Hoff was giving what he thought would be fair odds given the takout (should add to 119% for a 16% takeout), or fair odds in the absense of takeout. (should add to 100%). The more useful figure for betting purposes is a line that adds to 100%.

--Dunbar