Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No you aren't.

If he isn't...who is?

I have like three weeks to figure that out....right?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

with horses that are going so far..your pick is a close 4th in mine..

[Pointg5]

I would say AGS and Cowtown Cat are my top two right now.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I would say AGS and Cowtown Cat are my top two right now.

You are not fighting the devil hard enough.

You must resist with all your might.




Satan comes in many forms...my friend.

These are going to be 2 of them.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I would say AGS and Cowtown Cat are my top two right now.

Really? What is it that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Really? What is that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

I was going to ask the same question. Where the hell is his good race?

[jman5581]

Why, on the day of the Kentucky Derby of course!!

[KirisClown]

Im betting AGS too.. the horse is doomed...

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Really? What is it that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

Disclaimers:

All of this could be null and void once I look at the Sheets and see if he's fast enough...

Assumptions:

As has been discussed these are average horses this year
They are all a little on the slow side

I don't care about Derby myths, Voodoo or anything to do with breeding other to look at the sire and dam sire and see if they might be precocious and see if they have some distance limitations(based on races run). Most of that to me is nonsense and just people trying to act like they know what they are talking about.

We have a horse in Cowtown that will be overlooked big time on the Derby.

Here's a horse that was brilliant enough at 2 to track a fast pace and kick out a Beyer of 92 at 5 1/2f.

He's tractable enough to carve out slow fractions on or off the pace.

He doesn't appear to me to be speed crazy to me, he's not fighting the rider.

He's won 2 two turn stakes back to back.

His last appeared slow, but I believe he got a 98 Beyer.

He's going to have 4 preps and 4 weeks off, let's see what the reports come back on him during Derby week. He might be thriving.

There's no standout in my opinion and no one, unless it happens this weekend(which I doubt) is throwing big numbers.

This is a very average group of horses, again let's see what the most important figures come back, if he looks good on the Sheets, he can win.
I like his versatility and that's a big factor in the Derby. It's not like he's 10 points slower on the Beyers than anything this year, as long as the legit figures show he's fast enough, I"ll have no problem using him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

I really like that phrase....."dramatically sub-par." I am going to have to start using that one.
It is also very apt in this case.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

If this was any other year, I would not give Cowtown Cat a second look, but these horses are all slow. His best Beyer only trails the best Derby 3yo Beyer by 5 points, that difference can be easily achieved by a 3yo at this time of year. Your points of the perfect trips and easy leads are well taken, but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups. He doesn't fight the rider and can be used however the pace scenario dictates. It's not like he is a one hit wonder, his best Beyer as a 2yo and 3yo is only seperated by 8 points, that's not a huge difference giving the allowance for age improvement. I don't believe in all of these Derby myths, but he's coming into this race great, 2yo foundation, solid 3yo campaign, and 4 weeks until the Derby. When you are trying to seperate horses, I view this as a positive. There's some speed horses in here that are quitters this year, Stormello, Liquidity, Teuflesburg, maybe they all don't go, but I would take my chances with Cowtown than any of these guys.

I really don't care what kind of remarks are made, it's not important to me, what others think. I don't think I am stepping that outside of the box with Cowtown Cat relative to this years competition, but if others do that's fine, it should help the case at the window. It's like in Baseball or Basketball, when comparing players to other eras, it's not relevant, unless they are playing against each other. Cowtown is not running against last years horses and it doesn't matter what has happened in the past relative to this year.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

you underestimate todd pletcher.....didnt you say the same about pollards vision a couple years back?

[ateamstupid]

I like Windu's logic on this one. I think this is the exact type of race (a lot of inseparable horses and not too large of a dichotomy between the top tier and the second tier) where a bomb can come in. With that said, I think the winner will come from the group of Curlin, SD, NLS, CQ, SS, Tiago, HS and AGS, but upon further inspection, I'll probably chuck a few of those and find some bombs that I like to take their places. Cowtown Cat will probably be around 30/1, which I think is very good value considering that his IL Derby figure was the same as NLS' Wood figure and SD's FL Derby figure.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I like Windu's logic on this one. I think this is the exact type of race (a lot of inseparable horses and not too large of a dichotomy between the top tier and the second tier) where a bomb can come in. With that said, I think the winner will come from the group of Curlin, SD, NLS, CQ, SS, Tiago, HS and AGS, but upon further inspection, I'll probably chuck a few of those and find some bombs that I like to take their places. Cowtown Cat will probably be around 30/1, which I think is very good value considering that his IL Derby figure was the same as NLS' Wood figure and SD's FL Derby figure.

Cowtown Cat is an underlay at 100-1. He is SLOW. He has never run anything even remotely close to a good race.