Beyer Fig from Saturday

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It really was run like a turf race, and that is the way to look at it.

Absolutely and for that reason any number for this race is somewhat fabricated. Beyer felt that this number worked well, as it fell in line for four of the participants, and he said even though it is a difficult number he thinks he may have actually gotten it right.

what else is he gonna say, he thinks he got it wrong? 24 hours after the race and its wrong??

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

what else is he gonna say, he thinks he got it wrong? 24 hours after the race and its wrong??

What does this mean?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Time Squared got an 88 Beyer for beating one horse....

The figure for the Blue Grass is pointless anyway....but, Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 ran 13 points faster earlier on in the card, and the filly of Mott's that won from mid-pack also ran 13 points faster.

I'm positive he cut the race loose....if he doesn't...it's like an 82

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Time Squared got an 88 Beyer for beating one horse....

The figure for the Blue Grass is pointless anyway....but, Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 ran 13 points faster earlier on in the card, and the filly of Mott's that won from mid-pack also ran 13 points faster.

I'm positive he cut the race loose....if he doesn't...it's like an 82

Therein lies part of the problem for making figs for turf races ( and make no mistake....this Blue Grass was essentially a turf race from a timing/figure making standpoint ). Because of the slow pace, all the participants are essentially dragged into the race, and the horses that didn't run at all get numbers they can't possibly reproduce in a competitive situation.

Take a look at some of the fields behind Honey Ryder in a Delaware turf race from a year or so ago. There was a John Pregman horse that can barely run a competitive 80 figure who received a number in the low to mid 90s simply because of the slow pace and nature of the race dynamics. This is what Beyer was referring to in our show where he said he knew what I would say about Jader. I constantly have this argument with him.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think beyer is right on this ...he needs to give an honest account of all paramiters....and this fig is about right for what went on..

[CoronadosQuest]

Do you know what Storm In May got in the Arkansas Derby? or what Takedown's BSF was in the Northern Spur. Just want something to compare Curlin's 103 BSF to. Also, was Street Sense's BSF also a 93? Zanjero's?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CoronadosQuest

Do you know what Storm In May got in the Arkansas Derby? or what Takedown's BSF was in the Northern Spur. Just want something to compare Curlin's 103 BSF to. Also, was Street Sense's BSF also a 93? Zanjero's?

Storm in May would be an 86 based on the Beyer beaten lengths chart.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i think beyer is right on this ...he needs to give an honest account of all paramiters....and this fig is about right for what went on..

hooves, I'm not sure Beyer should be adjusting figs because of different pace scenarios.

Beyer has never tried to give an honest account of all parameters. If he doesn't try to adjust a fig to account for a huge bias or a terrible trip or a loose-on-the-lead benefit, then why should he now take pace factors into account? The figs were originally a way to compare the final times of races run at different tracks, and races run on different days at the same track. When Beyer deviates from that vision, he risks undermining his own figs.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

The Derby was not run on Saturday. I'm still on the Street Sense bandwagon, I think he's just a notch above his competition. I posted a brief blog about it at The Dispatch - he lost some momentum in the stretch and still ran well despite being on the wrong lead. You must also consider potential regression off the Tampa Bay Derby, which is a possibility. Either way, the field is evenly matched and it should be a great horse race!

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

he thinks he may have actually gotten it right.

Think is a good answer. What a joke

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Shouldn't the figure -- which as everyone should know is extremely difficult to compose given the lack of Polytrack experience to date -- be exclusively the product of the time of that race run at Keeneland on Saturday?

If that was the case, and they didn't "cut the figure loose", the Blue Grass number would have come back in the low-to-mid 80's.

Because mistakes compound themselves in the figure making process, a man made speed figure will be cut loose in an instance like that, and numbers will be assigned that fall in line that fit with the previous numbers of the runners in the race.

Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 coming into Saturday, ran 13 Beyer points faster than the Blue Grass on raw time. The Mott filly did so as well.

[10 pnt move up]

I am interested to see what a few other figure makers come up with for the blue grass.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am interested to see what a few other figure makers come up with for the blue grass.

Equibase gave it a 110 which is about a 98-100 Beyer equivalent.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Equibase gave it a 110 which is about a 98-100 Beyer equivalent.

They have Curlin running a 122 I guess.

[ArlJim78]

Bris gave Curlin a 102.

they gave Dominican a 98, identical to his Rushaway victory.

:...he thinks he may have actually gotten it right"

This quote of Beyer has been mentioned twice. What is the significance?

DOes Beyer sometimes put out numbers he feels are wrong? Do some numbers come with asterisks if they are not particularly sure? I just dont get the significance of his endorsement, his figs are supposed to be correct according to his system. Yes?

[10 pnt move up]

If the Tampa bay race is a bit fast on the numbers then that figure is not to out of line.

problem is what do you use to gauge SS ability

he has a perfect trip figure in the BC, another perfect trip in teh Tampa off a layoff, and then this crap on the weekend. I mean to mee he is probably good for a 100 beyer or so, where does that put him, right in the middle with everyone else and at 5/1 or so no thanks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

Which is/was more deceiving?

Sinister Minister's 116 in '06

Or

Street Sense's 93 in '07


Maybe Beyer just likes to muck the Derby waters with "odd" figs for the Blue Grass... Who is he foolin!?!? When's the last time a BG winner went on to win the Derby!?!?

Sinister Minister's figure was accurate....he took advantage of an insane inside-speed bias and won by a pole. One of the horses beaten double digits returned to run 2nd in the KY Derby at giant odds, and later win the Haskell. Another horse beaten double digits in that race took the Super Derby and Dwyer.

Street Sense was by no means impressive in the Blue Grass. He barely beat Tufelsburg, who couldn't stay straight through the lane, and was passed from behind by winner Domincan. If Great Hunter doesn't get sawed off, you have five horses finishing within a half length of each other.

I realize very little can be learned from the Blue Grass---however, if Street Sense really was a dominant horse, and really ran such a big race at age 2 over the track like some suggest, shouldn't he have taken that race?