Yikes

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by pick4

On May 5th a lot of people are going to wager on the Derby that don't follow racing. They are going to see an undefeated horse who has crushed his competition thus far. I'll be shocked if Curlin is not the favorite in this race.
Look at the Derby Futures if you believe I'm wrong.

Where it gets interesting is are his 3 races thus far enough to give him the foundation to win the Derby? Trainers are going lighter on their horses more than ever and this year is no different. Last weeks darling Nobiz might be an overlay here. Any Given Saturday will be at least 10-1 and with 4 weeks to prepared, and diffferent race tactics he could give Pletcher his first TC win.
There's a lot information and variables to ponder over the next 3 weeks. Good luck in figuring it out.

I hope so.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I hope so.

I'm thinking he can flirt with 20/1.

I mean, he's never even won a stake race in his life---and this will be a 20 horse field--where it's likely 8 of the 20 starters could be coming into the race off of either Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins....and that doesn't include probable post time favorite Street Sense.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm thinking he can flirt with 20/1.

I mean, he's never even won a stake race in his life---and this will be a 20 horse field--where it's likely 8 of the 20 starters could be coming into the race off of either Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins....and that doesn't include probable post time favorite Street Sense.

He won the fabulous Sam F. Davis Stakes Just kidding, I get what you mean. While I know it is sin to be thinking about the Derby field already I think AGS has shown an ability to run with the crops best so if the pieces fall together...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He won the fabulous Sam F. Davis Stakes Just kidding, I get what you mean.

Actually, I forgot about that win.

The poor Michigan bred he beat got beat about 15 in the Tampa Derby, and 20 lengths as the favorite in a much smaller stake after that.

[Mortimer]

Oh this is all sooo true.




I agree the KDerby should be taken as just your ordinary 20 horse squamish race.

Simply apply squamish handicapping rules and there ya go!

[Grits]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Oh this is all sooo true.




I agree the KDerby should be taken as just your ordinary 20 horse squamish race.

Simply apply squamish handicapping rules and there ya go!

And in applying these skills, we are to understand that you had War Emblem and Giacomo . . . no?

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by Grits

And in applying these skills, we are to understand that you had War Emblem and Giacomo . . . no?

Evasive.


Incendinary.


Stupid.






Let's stop talking about the derby as if it made any sense.

'cause it don't.


That's why the wise apply the Squamish Method.







So shut up.