Yikes

[Grits]

Originally Posted by miraja2

We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.

I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Grits

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

Plus if you're a big horse racing dork it makes for a lot of interesting reading with all of the coverage on TV and websites.

[Danzig]

well, since i never staked a claim to being a professional, i'll continue to discuss all the different aspects of the horses that are pointing to the derby, while still withholding (as most of us do) our final selection til the draw, etc.

but i'm sure it'll be ok. besides, isn't that part of the fun, part of the excitement leading to the derby? and i also enjoy reading things i may not have seen for myself--there's bound to be many points of view about the various races, i'd hate to wait til may 2 to read all of that, once the field is drawn!!

[SniperSB23]

I have a feeling that Nobiz will be a lot closer to Derby favorite than people are expecting. You know the celebs will be pouring their money into him!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Plus if you're a big horse racing dork it makes for a lot of interesting reading with all of the coverage on TV and websites.

I agree with you about this. I think it is fun and useful to talk about and analyze the abilities of the horses in the weeks before the Derby.
My only point was that I don't think it makes sense to determine what your wager will be until the horses have worked over the track, post positions have been drawn, etc. That doesn't mean it isn't fun to talk about!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Take it easy, I never said "so don't be impressed." I started the damn thread with the title as "Yikes," for god's sake.