Yikes

[pick4]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't know if the betting public will make Curlin the favorite on race-day, for no other reason than the fact that he's only had three career starts under him....

You'll start to hear more and more of "No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo, in 1882, has won the race without starting at age 2." the 125 year gap in that trend will be beaten to death in the press.

I realize Indian Charlie was the KY Derby favorite, with just four races under him---but, he did race at 2 (not that it means anything anyway) and was a really sensational raw talent. He made his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and toyed with a very strong field. Real Quiet, who missed the triple crown by a nose, was 2nd to him. Artax, who would win a championship sprinting the next year was a distant 3rd. Many of the also-rans improved their form in stakes next time out.

Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Beyer is still the highest ever published in the DRF in the history of that race...and his final time broke Affirmed's stakes record. As super as Curlin has been in all three starts, IC brought a bigger repute into the Derby.

I think Street Sense will be a very slight favorite in the end---and I agree with you...the favorite should be in the 7/2-to-5/1 range.

On May 5th a lot of people are going to wager on the Derby that don't follow racing. They are going to see an undefeated horse who has crushed his competition thus far. I'll be shocked if Curlin is not the favorite in this race.
Look at the Derby Futures if you believe I'm wrong.

Where it gets interesting is are his 3 races thus far enough to give him the foundation to win the Derby? Trainers are going lighter on their horses more than ever and this year is no different. Last weeks darling Nobiz might be an overlay here. Any Given Saturday will be at least 10-1 and with 4 weeks to prepared, and diffferent race tactics he could give Pletcher his first TC win.
There's a lot information and variables to ponder over the next 3 weeks. Good luck in figuring it out.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by pick4

On May 5th a lot of people are going to wager on the Derby that don't follow racing. They are going to see an undefeated horse who has crushed his competition thus far. I'll be shocked if Curlin is not the favorite in this race.
Look at the Derby Futures if you believe I'm wrong.

Where it gets interesting is are his 3 races thus far enough to give him the foundation to win the Derby? Trainers are going lighter on their horses more than ever and this year is no different. Last weeks darling Nobiz might be an overlay here. Any Given Saturday will be at least 10-1 and with 4 weeks to prepared, and diffferent race tactics he could give Pletcher his first TC win.
There's a lot information and variables to ponder over the next 3 weeks. Good luck in figuring it out.

I hope so.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I hope so.

I'm thinking he can flirt with 20/1.

I mean, he's never even won a stake race in his life---and this will be a 20 horse field--where it's likely 8 of the 20 starters could be coming into the race off of either Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins....and that doesn't include probable post time favorite Street Sense.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm thinking he can flirt with 20/1.

I mean, he's never even won a stake race in his life---and this will be a 20 horse field--where it's likely 8 of the 20 starters could be coming into the race off of either Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins....and that doesn't include probable post time favorite Street Sense.

He won the fabulous Sam F. Davis Stakes Just kidding, I get what you mean. While I know it is sin to be thinking about the Derby field already I think AGS has shown an ability to run with the crops best so if the pieces fall together...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He won the fabulous Sam F. Davis Stakes Just kidding, I get what you mean.

Actually, I forgot about that win.

The poor Michigan bred he beat got beat about 15 in the Tampa Derby, and 20 lengths as the favorite in a much smaller stake after that.

[Mortimer]

Oh this is all sooo true.




I agree the KDerby should be taken as just your ordinary 20 horse squamish race.

Simply apply squamish handicapping rules and there ya go!

[Grits]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Oh this is all sooo true.




I agree the KDerby should be taken as just your ordinary 20 horse squamish race.

Simply apply squamish handicapping rules and there ya go!

And in applying these skills, we are to understand that you had War Emblem and Giacomo . . . no?