Yikes

[pdrift1]

i think curlin could be that good! but i think when street sense hits that churchill dirt instead of the poly, he flys- this race didn't take much outa him. i think hes sitting on a big one. him or any given saturday are going to be wearing roses on the 5th. if its a closer i like circular quay

[Danzig]

i'm beginning to like quays chances more and more. he likes churchill, he had some trouble, in one race, rebounded with a win in his most recent. he's the one i keep coming back to--after the bluegrass, i'm not sure i like any of those horses in that race-all it did (as the bluegrass usually does) is muddy the waters.

still a few weeks left, works at churchill, post positions to draw, entries....plenty of time for everyone to make their final decision(s????).

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm beginning to like quays chances more and more. he likes churchill, he had some trouble, in one race, rebounded with a win in his most recent. he's the one i keep coming back to--after the bluegrass, i'm not sure i like any of those horses in that race-all it did (as the bluegrass usually does) is muddy the waters.

still a few weeks left, works at churchill, post positions to draw, entries....plenty of time for everyone to make their final decision(s????).

if its a deep closer i like quay also danzig. but i'd prefer a stalker like anygivensat or curlin, and street sense i think might be setting just right

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pdrift1

if its a deep closer i like quay also danzig. but i'd prefer a stalker like anygivensat or curlin, and street sense i think might be setting just right

really? i like street sense less after today. sigh


three weeks away, 21 days to figure it all out. or die trying!

[whodey17]

I have loved Curlin ever since I saw Bejarano ride him in his maiden in Florida. I was not happy to see him taken from Pitts because I am a HUGE Pitts fan. However, in Curlin's 3 starts he has received perfect trips, perfect pace and very suspect fields. I doubt he will go off as the fav in the Derby. That fav status will go to SS. I would not be shocked to see Curling win, but I would be surprised.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by whodey17

I have loved Curlin ever since I saw Bejarano ride him in his maiden in Florida. I was not happy to see him taken from Pitts because I am a HUGE Pitts fan. However, in Curlin's 3 starts he has received perfect trips, perfect pace and very suspect fields. I doubt he will go off as the fav in the Derby. That fav status will go to SS. I would not be shocked to see Curling win, but I would be surprised.

I wish he were still w/ Pitts too...alot easier to root for.

[miraja2]

Right now I think Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense are the three best horses.
At this point though, handicapping the race is virtually impossible. You can't really handicap a race until you can visualize it, and in a 20 horse field, you can't visualize it until you know the post positions. There are a lot of horses this year that are pretty close in terms of ability. If one of them draws post 19 or 20, maybe you toss them.
We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.
I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Right now I think Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense are the three best horses.
At this point though, handicapping the race is virtually impossible. You can't really handicap a race until you can visualize it, and in a 20 horse field, you can't visualize it until you know the post positions. There are a lot of horses this year that are pretty close in terms of ability. If one of them draws post 19 or 20, maybe you toss them.
We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.
I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

i'm with you on your picks just add anygivensat and i think you have the derby horse

[Grits]

Originally Posted by miraja2

We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.

I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Grits

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

Plus if you're a big horse racing dork it makes for a lot of interesting reading with all of the coverage on TV and websites.

[Danzig]

well, since i never staked a claim to being a professional, i'll continue to discuss all the different aspects of the horses that are pointing to the derby, while still withholding (as most of us do) our final selection til the draw, etc.

but i'm sure it'll be ok. besides, isn't that part of the fun, part of the excitement leading to the derby? and i also enjoy reading things i may not have seen for myself--there's bound to be many points of view about the various races, i'd hate to wait til may 2 to read all of that, once the field is drawn!!

[SniperSB23]

I have a feeling that Nobiz will be a lot closer to Derby favorite than people are expecting. You know the celebs will be pouring their money into him!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Plus if you're a big horse racing dork it makes for a lot of interesting reading with all of the coverage on TV and websites.

I agree with you about this. I think it is fun and useful to talk about and analyze the abilities of the horses in the weeks before the Derby.
My only point was that I don't think it makes sense to determine what your wager will be until the horses have worked over the track, post positions have been drawn, etc. That doesn't mean it isn't fun to talk about!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Take it easy, I never said "so don't be impressed." I started the damn thread with the title as "Yikes," for god's sake.