Bluegrass

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat

And also watch the races from the rest of the meet to see how ridiculous the rail has been. Almost every winner is coming from farther back and in the middle of the track. This race actually made me go from not considering Zanjero at all to almost definitely at least including him on my tickets.

The 10th race winner came right up the rail. It feels to me like the situation is a bit of a self-fulfulling prophesy as everyone seems to be staying outside.

Regardless, this edition of the Blue Grass, and probably everyone from now on, offers absolutely nothing predictive.

[tiznowthegreat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The 10th race winner came right up the rail. It feels to me like the situation is a bit of a self-fulfulling prophesy as everyone seems to be staying outside.

Regardless, this edition of the Blue Grass, and probably everyone from now on, offers absolutely nothing predictive.

There is no doubt that if a horse is good enough they can win on the rail. But for a week and a half now I've heard jockeys and trainers repeatedly say that the rail is not the place to be. Silent Name won on the lead but if you've been watching the meet, the lead is not the place of preference. Horses are winning on the inside and on the lead, but not as much as they should be. I've had a great meet playing these angles.

[todko]

Steet Sense is a toss. Shot from the Tampa Bay effort. Horse had the long layoff due to physical issues. Even Carl said he wasn't doing well when they went to Florida. Comes back after layoff since November and grits it out in record time versus AGS.

Now people believe he will win at 10f in 3 weeks time. He was trying to win at Keeneland and if Dominican didn't have traffic issues and they went another furlong Dominican wins by 10.

[sumitas]

You do need to wonder if Street Sense can peak for the KD. Curlin will be the fav in the Derby.

Originally Posted by todko

Steet Sense is a toss. Shot from the Tampa Bay effort. Horse had the long layoff due to physical issues. Even Carl said he wasn't doing well when they went to Florida. Comes back after layoff since November and grits it out in record time versus AGS.

Now people believe he will win at 10f in 3 weeks time. He was trying to win at Keeneland and if Dominican didn't have traffic issues and they went another furlong Dominican wins by 10.

I agree. In fact, I've got Dominican winning the triple crown. He will be Bernardini x 10.

[todko]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

My first laugh of the day, thanks. Dominican had traffic issues? Where exactly? But the statement that takes the cake is that he wins by 10 if they went another furlong. How exactly can you determine this?

He didn't even get motoring until the last 1/16th. Was behind Street Sense and went around him with no difficulty. Watch the horses running out after.

Street Sense staggered off slow fractions. That's a dud on the first Saturday in May.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by todko

He didn't even get motoring until the last 1/16th. Was behind Street Sense and went around him with no difficulty. Watch the horses running out after.

Street Sense staggered off slow fractions. That's a dud on the first Saturday in May.

The way I saw it, and I could be wrong (have been once or twice), is that Dominican was outrun by the leaders to the top of the stretch, then took advantage of the "bumper cars" game that Tuefelsberg created, and got up ONLY because Street Sense was bumped/bothered. Maybe we'll find out more in 3 weeks

[todko]

Originally Posted by golfer

The way I saw it, and I could be wrong (have been once or twice), is that Dominican was outrun by the leaders to the top of the stretch, then took advantage of the "bumper cars" game that Tuefelsberg created, and got up ONLY because Street Sense was bumped/bothered. Maybe we'll find out more in 3 weeks

I can't wait. Street Sense was very mildly bumped. He staggered into Great Hunter and shut the door on him. Nafzger when asked, said he wouldn't put blinkers on Street Sense for the Derby. Why make the effort? Street Sense needs more than blinkers. Like maybe a new training program?

Dominican beats him again on the first Saturday in May. If they even run Street Sense. I think he scratches.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by todko

I can't wait. Street Sense was very mildly bumped. He staggered into Great Hunter and shut the door on him. Nafzger when asked, said he wouldn't put blinkers on Street Sense for the Derby. Why make the effort? Street Sense needs more than blinkers. Like maybe a new training program?

Dominican beats him again on the first Saturday in May. If they even run Street Sense. I think he scratches.

he scratches based on what?

[todko]

Teuflesburg hit Great Hunter didn't he? Looked like Street Sense did too.

Street Sense will get crucified in the Derby.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by todko

He didn't even get motoring until the last 1/16th. Was behind Street Sense and went around him with no difficulty. Watch the horses running out after.

Street Sense staggered off slow fractions. That's a dud on the first Saturday in May.

Forgetting also, that Sense's biggest success has come as a one-run closer. Sitting just a few lengths off of a dawdling pace set by a vanity entrant wasn't exactly his typical running style. It reminded me a lot more visually of the Breeders Futurity last fall over the very same track, albeit with a different pace scenario. And we all know how that story ended.....

On Derby Day you won't find him tracking leaders three lengths off of fractions of 51.2 or 1:16.3 either.

I think he should have won, but it's not like the Derby is going to have the same ridiculous shape that this one did.

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Forgetting also, that Sense's biggest success has come as a one-run closer. ...

I feel this way too. If memory serves, they told Mehrtens, on Assault, that "you have the fastest animal for 3/8 of a mile, but you've got to time your run." Something like that. Assult was considered a one run closer from what I read, he sure had a burst.

Curlin might be faster for a short distance. I think he put more ground between himself and Delightful Kiss in the stretch than did SS/AGS in the TB derby. Valid comparison?

[Danzig]

i just wonder how street sense will get crucified in the derby, if he's going to scratch for all kinds of reasons.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Regardless, this edition of the Blue Grass, and probably everyone from now on, offers absolutely nothing predictive.

I'm not sure if I agree or disagree here but IMO the last 5-10 runnings of the Bluegrass have been far frompredictive. Millenium Wind and Sinister Minister looked like HOY candidates over the "old" Keeneland.