Real Derby Contenders

Scav · #1 04-13-2007, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He was my main wager in the race. I was pissed because I had savers on Tiago and Boutrous. Was real close to making Tiago my main bet. Maddening day.

I'm definitely including Notional and Liquidity in my exotic wagers on D-Day.

What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

#2 04-13-2007, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

I'm making my bets before I go. The pick 3's are juicy as hell on Derby day. I'm rolling 6 of them and playing exactas and a super or two for the derby. After the Giacamo super slam i'm hooked on the big race super.

Scav · #3 04-13-2007, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I'm making my bets before I go. The pick 3's are juicy as hell on Derby day. I'm rolling 6 of them and playing exactas and a super or two for the derby. After the Giacamo super slam i'm hooked on the big race super.

I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st

Left Bank · #4 04-13-2007, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st

What happens between derby day and july 1st?

Scav · #5 04-13-2007, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

What happens between derby day and july 1st?

Was talking about Arlington's daily race cards, they are crap from about May to around July, could be different this year with Poly, we will see. July is when it starts to pick up because Churchill closes and turf racing is in full swing, plus they have plenty of stakes weekends (Illinois Day and Million Preview day come to mind right now)

#6 04-13-2007, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st

Yeah i'll be too busy getting hammered to worry about betting. Plus it's a nightmare to wager on derby day...even on the backside. And the tellers at Churchill are horrible.

Sightseek · #7 04-13-2007, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Yeah i'll be too busy getting hammered to worry about betting. Plus it's a nightmare to wager on derby day...even on the backside. And the tellers at Churchill are horrible.

Not to mention there are like 3 computers in the whole joint on the main floor.

#8 04-13-2007, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Not to mention there are like 3 computers in the whole joint on the main floor.

Yeah and 20 deep in each line with at least 10 jackasses that don't know how to use the new machines.

Sightseek · #9 04-13-2007, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Yeah and 20 deep in each line with at least 10 jackasses that don't know how to use the new machines.

LOL, if you ever read the headline "Girl Shoots Man at Betting Machines" I swear it wasn't me.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #10 04-13-2007, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?

#11 04-13-2007, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?

Stormello

POINTGIVEN1985 · #12 04-13-2007, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Stormello

its going to take alot more then him to go 1:08, and his latest work was slow, and now curin is saying they want to teach him to rate.

there is speed but there is no sprinter speed like last year w/ keyed entry and sinister minister.

#13 04-13-2007, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

its going to take alot more then him to go 1:08, and his latest work was slow, and now curin is saying they want to teach him to rate.

there is speed but there is no sprinter speed like last year w/ keyed entry and sinister minister.

Yeah good luck getting that horse to rate. I expect he'll be flying on the lead.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #14 04-13-2007, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Yeah good luck getting that horse to rate. I expect he'll be flying on the lead.

i see what your saying, but i dont think anyone will respect him to go the distance, especially off of his last race, i will predict the pace is 23/47/1.10

miraja2 · #15 04-13-2007, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

its going to take alot more then him to go 1:08, and his latest work was slow, and now curin is saying they want to teach him to rate.

there is speed but there is no sprinter speed like last year w/ keyed entry and sinister minister.

Oh Christ!
You said YESTERDAY that you thought Stormello would turn in a "keyed entry like performance" in this year's Derby. Now you seem to be saying the opposite. You are the most frustrating poster I have ever encountered!!!

SniperSB23 · #16 04-13-2007, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Oh Christ!
You said YESTERDAY that you thought Stormello would turn in a "keyed entry like performance" in this year's Derby. Now you seem to be saying the opposite. You are the most frustrating poster I have ever encountered!!!

Keyed Entry didn't even make it six furlongs when the pace was 1:10 4/5ths. I don't see why he can't think Stormello will be this years Keyed Entry and that he won't run a 1:08 or even close to that.

Scav · #17 04-13-2007, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Keyed Entry didn't even make it six furlongs when the pace was 1:10 4/5ths. I don't see why he can't think Stormello will be this years Keyed Entry and that he won't run a 1:08 or even close to that.

1:08 was a bad number but I was trying to get a point across that it is going to be contested and hot up front, and I would want a horse that is going to sit the trip

2Hot4TV · #18 04-14-2007, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Keyed Entry didn't even make it six furlongs when the pace was 1:10 4/5ths. I don't see why he can't think Stormello will be this years Keyed Entry and that he won't run a 1:08 or even close to that.

With Kent Desormeaux riding Stormello you don't know what he's going to do.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #19 04-13-2007, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Oh Christ!
You said YESTERDAY that you thought Stormello would turn in a "keyed entry like performance" in this year's Derby. Now you seem to be saying the opposite. You are the most frustrating poster I have ever encountered!!!

i read where currin said they will rate him, his workout was also very very slow....

Scav · #20 04-13-2007, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Stormello

You know, I said this on another thread, but Stormello is not Stormello's problem. Stormello's problem is his trainer. I tried to give this guy the benefit but he is a moron. This friggin horse WANTS to rate, he wanted to rate early on BUT then he starts putting these 35' 3f works and 46 works into him and now he is uncontrollable. Seriously, if this horse was with Mandella/Assmussen/McLaughlin/Frankel, you would see a totally different horse