Real Derby Contenders

O'Neill scares me more than Pletcher. The guy has had some tough luck the past few weeks but i'm expecting he'll have a big Derby day with Liquidity and Notional.

Sure it's trainerspeak™, but he's high on both horses. He said Liquidity wasn't breathing hard after the SA derby...that's the sign of a stubborn, lazy horse. If anyone can wake this horse up it's O'Neill.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

O'neill scares me more than Pletcher. The guy has had some tough luck the past few weeks but i'm expecting he'll have a big Derby day with Liquidity and Notional.

Sure it's trainerspeakâ„¢, but he's high on both horses. He said Liquidity wasn't breathing hard after the SA derby...that's the sign of a stubborn, lazy horse. If anyone can wake this horse up it's O'neill.

im going to have to agree with you, even though i dont like the 2 you mentioned i do like great hunter, and i think pletcher will have a bad derby day, i dont think a pletcher horse will make the superfecta.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

O'neill scares me more than Pletcher. The guy has had some tough luck the past few weeks but i'm expecting he'll have a big Derby day with Liquidity and Notional.

Sure it's trainerspeakâ„¢, but he's high on both horses. He said Liquidity wasn't breathing hard after the SA derby...that's the sign of a stubborn, lazy horse. If anyone can wake this horse up it's O'neill.

I didn't think he looked tired, either... he hung in the SA derby. Liquidity was my Derby horse, but it's hard to like a horse like that. I want to see a gritty horse win it... not some suck up. I'd much rather Notional at this point... at least he tries.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I didn't think he looked tired, either... he hung in the SA derby. Liquidity was my Derby horse, but it's hard to like a horse like that. I want to see a gritty horse win it... not some suck up. I'd much rather Notional at this point... at least he tries.

He was my main wager in the race. I was pissed because I had savers on Tiago and Boutrous. Was real close to making Tiago my main bet. Maddening day.

I'm definitely including Notional and Liquidity in my exotic wagers on D-Day.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He was my main wager in the race. I was pissed because I had savers on Tiago and Boutrous. Was real close to making Tiago my main bet. Maddening day.

I'm definitely including Notional and Liquidity in my exotic wagers on D-Day.

Hey, at least you saw Tiago... no way I would have picked that one out. LOL

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Hey, at least you saw Tiago... no way I would have picked that one out. LOL

I'm a rare breed. I like Mike Smith. He's helped me cash a few signers in my day. My stupid ass fell for the haterspeakâ„¢ Smith off jive that's abundant here and that resulted in me finding anything to not put Tiago as my top choice. Oh...found it...he didn't actually win his maiden race.

Nevermind the good works and Hall of Famer Smith flying in for the big check.

DOH!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He was my main wager in the race. I was pissed because I had savers on Tiago and Boutrous. Was real close to making Tiago my main bet. Maddening day.

I'm definitely including Notional and Liquidity in my exotic wagers on D-Day.

What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

Originally Posted by Scav

What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

I'm making my bets before I go. The pick 3's are juicy as hell on Derby day. I'm rolling 6 of them and playing exactas and a super or two for the derby. After the Giacamo super slam i'm hooked on the big race super.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I'm making my bets before I go. The pick 3's are juicy as hell on Derby day. I'm rolling 6 of them and playing exactas and a super or two for the derby. After the Giacamo super slam i'm hooked on the big race super.

I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st

What happens between derby day and july 1st?

Originally Posted by Scav

I just thought of that also, maybe I will just unload through Youbet and just CHILL at Arlington all day and get hammered, maybe bring some pissing around money for the Arlington card, it should be decent on derby day and then crap until july 1st

Yeah i'll be too busy getting hammered to worry about betting. Plus it's a nightmare to wager on derby day...even on the backside. And the tellers at Churchill are horrible.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Scav

What I usually do is box 5 horses in the Derby as my one crazy insane wager of the year, usually play it for $10 so it cost me $200. So far, my pre Derby box is looking like Notional, Hard Spun (hate his style but like the progression), Zanjero, Street Sense, Scat Daddy. Notice the theme of horses that will sit off this pace, I am guessing we are going to see 23/46/108 this year and if that is the case, anyone within 3-4 lengths will be no where at the end....

Given the post draw obviously, I am considering a nice wager on Notional, like 100WP

I am actually considering taking the Derby off besides my 5 horse exacta box and maybe some pick threes with those five horses, and some win/place on Notional, and actually enjoying the day instead of getting all nuts on the handicapping

1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?

Stormello

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Stormello

its going to take alot more then him to go 1:08, and his latest work was slow, and now curin is saying they want to teach him to rate.

there is speed but there is no sprinter speed like last year w/ keyed entry and sinister minister.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Stormello

You know, I said this on another thread, but Stormello is not Stormello's problem. Stormello's problem is his trainer. I tried to give this guy the benefit but he is a moron. This friggin horse WANTS to rate, he wanted to rate early on BUT then he starts putting these 35' 3f works and 46 works into him and now he is uncontrollable. Seriously, if this horse was with Mandella/Assmussen/McLaughlin/Frankel, you would see a totally different horse

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?

I gotta agree, this is nowhere near as loaded with speed as the Spanish Chestnut Derby and that one went in 1:09 2/5ths which is a torrid pace for a 10 furlong race. No way they go faster than that this year. I'm guessing 1:10 flat which will be enough to cook all the horses on the front end.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I gotta agree, this is nowhere near as loaded with speed as the Spanish Chestnut Derby and that one went in 1:09 2/5ths which is a torrid pace for a 10 furlong race. No way they go faster than that this year. I'm guessing 1:10 flat which will be enough to cook all the horses on the front end.

thats what im trying to say

[Scav]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

1:08 ? are you crazy ? your guessing that based on what ? I dont mean to sound rude or anything but 1:08, i look at the race and i dont see much pace, where do you see it that hot of fractions coming from ?

2006 - 1:10 and 2
2005 - 1:09 and 3
2004 - 1:11 and 4 Slop
2003 - 1:10 and 2
2002 - 1:11 and 4

Ok, so 1:08 is a little low but it will go 1:09

Pigtown Cat
hard Spun
Liquidity
Nobiz
Stormello - Currin is full of crap, he is going to the f'n lead
Teufleburg


That is just from the Future PP's

Stormello alone will go 1:09 if he is in there, nobiz is going to be a nut case and pigtown is gunning, and if DEADLY dealer goes, it will be the same situation as pletchers other rat that I can't think of his name

Yeah Teuflesberg will screw the race up real good. Expect that goofball to go a low 1:09 if he gets in.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Scav

2006 - 1:10 and 2
2005 - 1:09 and 3
2004 - 1:11 and 4 Slop
2003 - 1:10 and 2
2002 - 1:11 and 4

Ok, so 1:08 is a little low but it will go 1:09

Pigtown Cat
hard Spun
Liquidity
Nobiz
Stormello - Currin is full of crap, he is going to the f'n lead
Teufleburg


That is just from the Future PP's

Stormello alone will go 1:09 if he is in there, nobiz is going to be a nut case and pigtown is gunning, and if DEADLY dealer goes, it will be the same situation as pletchers other rat that I can't think of his name

lol pigtown cat....

i dont know man, if you think so, im thinking 1.10