Real Derby Contenders - Page 2

peetsa · #21 04-13-2007, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

Here is something to chew on.These are the real Derby contenders.
Cowtown cat:Has raced on 5 different tracks,ALL DIRT,won at 5.5f,6.5f,1 1/6,1 1/8.Beyers just keep going up in every race he won.
No Biz: Because PG 1985 likes him.Most likely the pace for the race.
Street Sense:Owns the highest Beyer,And the horse to beat.
And last but not least and you all are gonna crap your pants if you know me...............
Notional:This is the only California horse who has a shot.Ran 105 as a maiden,and ran a great race at GP in his first off the layoff.This is the horse who has the best chance to run them down.
Honorable Mention goes to Hard Spun.
These are MY contenders.

I've always said that there is only 1 handcapper in the world better than Andy Beyer, and that would be everyone who looks at a racing form!!!

Cajungator26 · #22 04-13-2007, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

thunderstorms down here caj..of course i'm southeast of the track, so who knows what they have or will get tomorrow. i've heard several forecasts already for this area.

Buckle down and stay safe, D...

I hope it's not bad enough to keep them from running tomorrow.

Danzig · #23 04-13-2007, 07:59 PM

i've been pulling for hard spun in all his races. but i've never made him my 'derby horse'. the ones running the show have me concerned.

i think great hunter is the one. but i'd love to see a danzig come in first! (but that should be obvious!!)

Sightseek · #24 04-13-2007, 08:00 PM

Top Pick - Any Given Saturday

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Longshot horse - Sam P.

Danzig · #25 04-13-2007, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Buckle down and stay safe, D...

I hope it's not bad enough to keep them from running tomorrow.

oh, it's not too bad. we just got in from a trip down south--i live in a dry county (the horror, the horror!!) and we have to drive about 40 minutes to get the devil's brew.

incredible lightening show on the way home. of course it got dark, so i had to quit trying to read the bloodhorse from last week that i just got a chance to dig into.

but i'm with you, hopefully the race goes off, and everyone comes in ok. gotta tape it, as i have to work a rare saturday. like the 60 hours i put in this week already wasn't enough!

MarkyD · #26 04-13-2007, 08:02 PM

Notional makes me think of BlueGrassCat from last year. Sneaky good horse that has really done nothing wrong and looking at current live odds:

Pool Total: $49,442.06 Last Updated: 2007-04-13T20:57:14.531

Notional ML:15 Current:35.

Seems to be forgotten. for now.....

2Hot4TV · #27 04-13-2007, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

Here is something to chew on.These are the real Derby contenders.
Cowtown cat:Has raced on 5 different tracks,ALL DIRT,won at 5.5f,6.5f,1 1/6,1 1/8.Beyers just keep going up in every race he won.
No Biz: Because PG 1985 likes him.Most likely the pace for the race.
Street Sense:Owns the highest Beyer,And the horse to beat.
And last but not least and you all are gonna crap your pants if you know me...............
Notional:This is the only California horse who has a shot.Ran 105 as a maiden,and ran a great race at GP in his first off the layoff.This is the horse who has the best chance to run them down.
Honorable Mention goes to Hard Spun.
These are MY contenders.

I don't think you will see alot from any horse that has raced this winter in California. Baffert's gone quiet and O'neil horses are a cut below. Notional is to slow and Great Hunter won't have a polytrack in Kuntucky. Tioga gets alot of talk after his last race (his final quarter was the best of the 3yo out west) but he lacks real racing experiance.

SniperSB23 · #28 04-13-2007, 08:06 PM

Right now I see:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday

as the group most likely to win on Derby Day. I think Curlin and Deadly Dealer both have a chance to join that group tomorrow with a big effort.

Then horses like Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Tiago, and maybe even Sam P that I have a hard time seeing win but can see hitting the board. The rest I feel pretty confident in tossing at this point. Hard Spun is the only I could see possibly burning me but I am pretty confident playing against him is the right move.

Scav · #29 04-13-2007, 08:06 PM

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

Scav · #30 04-13-2007, 08:07 PM

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

Cajungator26 · #31 04-13-2007, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

Great info, Scav. Thanks for posting this.

brianwspencer · #32 04-13-2007, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -- who at this point are probably my two key horses for the Derby and of course less inclusions of the other contenders (not trying to say they're your Derby exacta by any means).

Sightseek · #33 04-13-2007, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distanceStreet Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.
Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

These two horses I will have to deeply consider including...

Danzig · #34 04-13-2007, 08:11 PM

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

Left Bank · #35 04-13-2007, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

I think you are wise in your focus on Notional.He is just getting off the bench,and ran great in the Fla derby.Let's just hope he gets someone better than Robby{BURN IN HELL}Albarado.And he looks way better than Great Hunter on Paper.Cowtown is looking good too.

Left Bank · #36 04-13-2007, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

I think you have nothing to worry about with Stormello

Cajungator26 · #37 04-13-2007, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

You know... I just have a hard time liking Nobiz at this point. I can see him getting all freaked out and running rank early on and falling back. Who knows... I just don't think that cotton balls and blinkers are going to be much assistance on Derby day. I'll probably let him beat me.

Left Bank · #38 04-13-2007, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

You know... I just have a hard time liking Nobiz at this point. I can see him getting all freaked out and running rank early on and falling back. Who knows... I just don't think that cotton balls and blinkers are going to be much assistance on Derby day. I'll probably let him beat me.

I agree,But,he is a player that shouldn't be taken too lightly.I think he will be the pacesetter.

whodey17 · #39 04-13-2007, 08:16 PM

I like Notional and I like Cowtown Cat. The prob I have with the Quay and SS is that they will need an opening and with 20 horses that is very hard to do. Great Hunter is a logical choice and so is Any Given Saturday.

Danzig · #40 04-13-2007, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I think you have nothing to worry about with Stormello

i'm not worried about him-i think he finishes far back on derby day.

edit---i'm not 'worried' about him, i said above that i'm worried insofar as i think they are putting him in a bad start, that he won't finish well.

cajun, i agree on nobiz. i don't like him derby day eith