Real Derby Contenders

Scav · #1 04-13-2007, 08:06 PM

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

Scav · #2 04-13-2007, 08:07 PM

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

brianwspencer · #3 04-13-2007, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -- who at this point are probably my two key horses for the Derby and of course less inclusions of the other contenders (not trying to say they're your Derby exacta by any means).

Danzig · #4 04-13-2007, 08:11 PM

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

Left Bank · #5 04-13-2007, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

I think you have nothing to worry about with Stormello

Danzig · #6 04-13-2007, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I think you have nothing to worry about with Stormello

i'm not worried about him-i think he finishes far back on derby day.

edit---i'm not 'worried' about him, i said above that i'm worried insofar as i think they are putting him in a bad start, that he won't finish well.

cajun, i agree on nobiz. i don't like him derby day eith

Cajungator26 · #7 04-13-2007, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

You know... I just have a hard time liking Nobiz at this point. I can see him getting all freaked out and running rank early on and falling back. Who knows... I just don't think that cotton balls and blinkers are going to be much assistance on Derby day. I'll probably let him beat me.

Left Bank · #8 04-13-2007, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

You know... I just have a hard time liking Nobiz at this point. I can see him getting all freaked out and running rank early on and falling back. Who knows... I just don't think that cotton balls and blinkers are going to be much assistance on Derby day. I'll probably let him beat me.

I agree,But,he is a player that shouldn't be taken too lightly.I think he will be the pacesetter.

whodey17 · #9 04-13-2007, 08:16 PM

I like Notional and I like Cowtown Cat. The prob I have with the Quay and SS is that they will need an opening and with 20 horses that is very hard to do. Great Hunter is a logical choice and so is Any Given Saturday.

Cannon Shell · #10 04-13-2007, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -

How?

brianwspencer · #11 04-13-2007, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How?

As a betting proposition in the Derby....

Cannon Shell · #12 04-13-2007, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

As a betting proposition in the Derby....

Help his price, ok I get it now.

declansharbor · #13 04-13-2007, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...

Scav · #14 04-13-2007, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...

I honestly don't see how people will 'focus' on him. What I would love people to watch is his gallop out in the Florida Derby. He was about 5 lengths in front right at the turn and just kept going. Now I know his breeding says no to 10f but as Andy says "I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS BREEDING IS"

To me, I want to see what Nakatini does, if Liquidity doesn't go, which I am hoping he doesn't, O'Neil and Nak are boys and if Nak gets him, HELLO MONEY for ALL that plays him

2Hot4TV · #15 04-13-2007, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I honestly don't see how people will 'focus' on him. What I would love people to watch is his gallop out in the Florida Derby. He was about 5 lengths in front right at the turn and just kept going. Now I know his breeding says no to 10f but as Andy says "I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS BREEDING IS"

To me, I want to see what Nakatini does, if Liquidity doesn't go, which I am hoping he doesn't, O'Neil and Nak are boys and if Nak gets him, HELLO MONEY for ALL that plays him

Victor Espinoza, with 76 wins only seven behind Santa Anita leader Garrett Gomez with eight racing days remaining, is sitting behind Corey Nakatani for a possible Kentucky Derby mount.

“We’ll ride either Notional or Great Hunter for Doug O’Neill,” agent Tony Matos said Friday. “Whichever one Corey rides, we’ll ride the other.”

Scav · #16 04-13-2007, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Victor Espinoza, with 76 wins only seven behind Santa Anita leader Garrett Gomez with eight racing days remaining, is sitting behind Corey Nakatani for a possible Kentucky Derby mount.

“We’ll ride either Notional or Great Hunter for Doug O’Neill,” agent Tony Matos said Friday. “Whichever one Corey rides, we’ll ride the other.”

Great info Hot, thanks for making me not go to sleep for 3 weeks now thinking about all the money I am going to make on Notional when CNak gets aboard..

Either way, I am happy with either jock quite honestly, even though I think Victor is a better front rider then back but whatever, both are good jocks, better then Albarado

just thinking, could we possibly have an Albarado Off angle created soon? Something to focus on

2Hot4TV · #17 04-13-2007, 08:49 PM

Right now I like Street Sense. We know the horse is bred to get the distance and shows that he is as game as they come. (reminds me of last years winner at this time.)

Circular Quay has the perfect style and anybody that thinks he's a sprinter needs to look at his pedigree. I just wonder why they sent him to Califorina to train this winter on Cushion rack. add in the fact that he will go 8 weeks into the Derby makes me think he has a problem like bad feet?

#18 04-13-2007, 08:31 PM

Right now I would go:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Notional
Any Given Saturday
Nobiz

in that order.

Circular Quay I dont like at all. If he does win, preps are really going to change. Barbaro has started a trend that might die this year. If CQ wins, huge reinforcement of take it easy path.

If Scat Daddy wins, more of a return to "run that animal". Very trendy stuff.
And I also realize the trendy nature of my first two as they will run tomorrow. They have not hurt me yet. So we wait. WE also must make note of post position influence. If Street Sense starts from the 20 hole... I dont like him.

Cannon Shell · #19 04-13-2007, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I dont follow your logic?

Scav · #20 04-13-2007, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont follow your logic?

I know you like GH to win the Derby, but have you seen Notional's TG sheet, a great progression line. GH didn't run too hot of a number first out, and he bore'd in which is never a good sign.

I read a while back that their is one one serious gambler that if they get a bi on their sheet they are auto plays against.

What I am hoping is that GH runs well to keep the focus off Notional as O'Neil's top horse. If he runs like crap tomorrow, then Notional will get all the attention...although, maybe not with the whole bank story and such