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#1
04-12-2007, 12:37 PM
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It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.
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#2
04-12-2007, 02:51 PM
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Or are you saying that people systematically bet in such a way that the exacta pool is better as far as these 2 bets are concerned? I'm working on an example, but I'll probably have to assume the pool is "efficient" for it to be at all general. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#3
04-12-2007, 03:36 PM
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Maybe I'm (slowly) catching on. I believe it's related to the concept of why it's better to use a free play on a long-odds bet, like roulette, even if the odds on that bet are worse than the odds on some even money bets like craps or blackjack.
Not sure it's the same, though. more later... --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#4
04-12-2007, 03:55 PM
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In the test, we are betting the same amount of money on place bets and on exacta bets. The place bets will lose at a rate of 16% on average and the exacta bets will lose at a rate of 19% on average. (Keenland, say). Breakage will hurt the place bets relatively more than the exacta bets, but not enough to make up for the diff in takeout. I'll try to come up with a concrete example. As I said, I almost never make place bets, so it's alien terrain. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#5
04-12-2007, 04:16 PM
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Anytime that you get one of these exactas there will also be a place payout...in other words for the conditions of the study you should be cashing about 3 times as many place wagers as exacta wagers...but if your average place payout is not at least 33% of your average exacta payout then the place wagers will have a lower ROI than the exacta wagers... obviously takeout effects payout and exacta takeout is higher than place takeout...also obviously the place pool gets split between the top two horses....however I'm not sure how mathmatics and takeout explain the advantage of the exacta wager... that is why I am looking for btw to elaborate...
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#6
04-12-2007, 06:21 PM
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I'm looking at these racing bets the same way I would look at any bet: And we are ignoring handicaping skill, because that hasn't been part of the assumptions from the get go. Therefore... If you make 50 $2 bets into the place pool, you are on average going to lose $16 at Keenland. (plus a little breakage). The $16 is the track take for WPS. If your twin makes 50 $2 bets into the exacta pool, your twin will lose on average $19 at Keenland. (plus a little breakage). The $19 is the track take for exacta pools. It's not as if we think the kind of bets being made in the "Contest" were better or worse than the average place bet or exacta bet. Therefore, I don't see why the track take isn't the key figure. If you or BTWind can find fault with those numbers, I'm all ears. But please be careful to not introduce any additional assumptions. BTWind usually knows what he's talking about. So I won't be completely shocked if I'm missing something fundamental. But it seems pretty straightforward to me. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#7
04-12-2007, 03:39 PM
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#8
04-15-2007, 07:27 AM
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1. BTWind is wrong about the mathematics, or 2. BTWind is right, but the concept is subtle enough that there is profit to be made from the betting public's misunderstanding of it, and he wishes to keep that edge to himself. (Nothing wrong with that!) If it were almost anyone else here, I'd lean very heavily toward #1. But I respect BTWind enough to consider #2 a possibility. I'm still working on an example that I hope will illustrate that at least in "efficient" pools, the place bet has to be better than the exacta bet for the type of comparison in this contest. Until I do that, I'm open to the possibility that BTWind could be right. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#9
04-15-2007, 09:01 PM
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Grits hit the ultimate exacta today early at Keeneland. She should be ahead now with not very many to go..
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#11
04-15-2007, 10:14 PM
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neither of these strategies has really proven to me that one is far superior to the other.
I would be more inclined to play the Place strategy with larger wagers and the exacta with a smaller amount. Just based on the odds of coming up with a place vs. coming up with an exacta and the practical bankroll considerations.
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#12
04-18-2007, 02:10 PM
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#13
04-18-2007, 02:44 PM
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I bet grits wins the bottle of scotch, anyone want to bet against?
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#14
04-18-2007, 02:55 PM
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#15
04-18-2007, 03:04 PM
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#16
04-18-2007, 03:06 PM
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I look forward to examining the next 250 place payouts Dunbar tracks.
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#17
04-18-2007, 03:18 PM
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This is an absurd mentality. What does " if " mean? If some of those ridiculous big priced horses at Gulfstream hadn't won, or had run second to the favorite, the exacta would have been substantially higher. " IF " is absurd to use.
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