Time Squared, can he upset the bluegrass ?

[byalip]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One of the surest signs of a losing horseplayer is someone who marries himself ( or herself ) to horses they have cashed bets on. While some might call it loyalty, what it really is is stupidity, as every race is different, and nobody who sanely looks at the pps for this Blue Grass Stakes can honestly give Time Squared anything even remotely close to an outside chance. He is WAY too slow....period.

This is one of the best maxims in betting...something I relearn the hard way every year. You have to figure out WHO is going to win, not who you WANT to win.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by byalip

This is one of the best maxims in betting...something I relearn the hard way every year. You have to figure out WHO is going to win, not who you WANT to win.

Oh he read that on yahoo somewheres.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by byalip

This is one of the best maxims in betting...something I relearn the hard way every year. You have to figure out WHO is going to win, not who you WANT to win.

i agree with that 100% and the truth is i have no favorites in this race, no horse that i personally really like is running, but i do honestly feel that he could possibly win, its a long shot, a upset but it would be no bigger then Tiago winning last week.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i agree with that 100% and the truth is i have no favorites in this race, no horse that i personally really like is running, but i do honestly feel that he could possibly win, its a long shot, a upset but it would be no bigger then Tiago winning last week.

Instead of just coming out and saying that you honestly think he can win, tell us what that is based on. Make the case, convince us. What is your rationale?

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Instead of just coming out and saying that you honestly think he can win, tell us what that is based on. Make the case, convince us. What is your rationale?

ok.....I think he can win because........


like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

This years three year old crop has not standouts, there are alot of very good horses but no great ones, and i know alot of ppl think the big 2 are in this race but i really do think this race could be ripe for a upset. Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly, as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

I am not entirely sure that Time Squared is aware of the graded earnings system that the Derby employs. I am therefore afraid that his ignorance regarding this issue may force him to just run around the track without that extra special motivation (like the rest of the horses).
This is obviously problematic because there are other horses in the race that can run around the track faster than him.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok.....I think he can win because........


like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

This years three year old crop has not standouts, there are alot of very good horses but no great ones, and i know alot of ppl think the big 2 are in this race but i really do think this race could be ripe for a upset. Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly, as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

while i still don't agree with you about times squared -- this is a perfect lesson in what a little bit of spelling things out will do for you as opposed to just take strongheaded opinions and spouting them with nothing behind them.

i didn't find it convincing, but i do find it much more endearing than just saying $600000 WPS.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

Watch the replay, he wasn't in hand the whole trip and did not win easy. He had no speed early on in a race that was horribly, hideously slow. It took him the length of the stretch and he just got up by a length.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

This years three year old crop has not standouts,there are alot of very good horses but no great ones,

Define standouts. Do you mean compared with historical perspective? Maybe that is true that there are no standouts compared to other years, but our task here is to handicap this particular race, and I must tell you that
compared to Time Squared, every horse in this field is a standout.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly,

you say Any Given Saturday ran horrible in the Wood? He did regress but he actually only lost by three lengths to your superstar horse No Biz.
A more accurate description of a horrible race would be Time Squared's only attempt at taking on the better horses in this crop (which you have already stated does not contain any standouts) in the Sham. He was dead last losing by 17 lengths. And this is a race that has been exposed as not being a strong prep.

and as far as Street Sense never winning on the poly? as if Time Squared has the edge on him because of his maiden win last Friday? are you serious?
Street Sense was third beaten less than 2 lengths in a grade1 on the poly at this very track last fall. The horses that beat him were Great Hunter and Circular Quay.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Let me just say that there is no link between Tiago beating Sam P in the SA Derby, and Time Squared therefore being able to take down Street Sense and Great Hunter in the Blue Grass.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

HAHA, the big two? Time Squared has to worry about more than the big two as there are several other much more accomplished horses. Teuflesberg, Zanjero, Dominican, Love Dubai, all of these horses are faster and more accomplished than Time Squared. If one or both of the big two have a so-so day and get upset, it will be by one of these other horses.

Timed Squared does not belong in the race and its an example of derby fever taking over.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Watch the replay, he wasn't in hand the whole trip and did not win easy. He had no speed early on in a race that was horribly, hideously slow. It took him the length of the stretch and he just got up by a length.

Define standouts. Do you mean compared with historical perspective? Maybe that is true that there are no standouts compared to other years, but our task here is to handicap this particular race, and I must tell you that
compared to Time Squared, every horse in this field is a standout.

you say Any Given Saturday ran horrible in the Wood? He did regress but he actually only lost by three lengths to your superstar horse No Biz.
A more accurate description of a horrible race would be Time Squared's only attempt at taking on the better horses in this crop (which you have already stated does not contain any standouts) in the Sham. He was dead last losing by 17 lengths. And this is a race that has been exposed as not being a strong prep.

and as far as Street Sense never winning on the poly? as if Time Squared has the edge on him because of his maiden win last Friday? are you serious?
Street Sense was third beaten less than 2 lengths in a grade1 on the poly at this very track last fall. The horses that beat him were Great Hunter and Circular Quay.

Let me just say that there is no link between Tiago beating Sam P in the SA Derby, and Time Squared therefore being able to take down Street Sense and Great Hunter in the Blue Grass.

HAHA, the big two? Time Squared has to worry about more than the big two as there are several other much more accomplished horses. Teuflesberg, Zanjero, Dominican, Love Dubai, all of these horses are faster and more accomplished than Time Squared. If one or both of the big two have a so-so day and get upset, it will be by one of these other horses.

Timed Squared does not belong in the race and its an example of derby fever taking over.

aj thats alot of work to say no.. you rally have done enough......let him play his horse..more money in the pool to take..wc fields was right..lol

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

aj thats alot of work to say no.. you rally have done enough......let him play his horse..more money in the pool to take..wc fields was right..lol

I know, I had to do it just once though.

I have done enough, I think I'll retire now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Timed Squared does not belong in the race and its an example of derby fever taking over.

The final coup de gras.

[horseofcourse]

If Time Squared wins, I will parade around naked in front of all DT members.

(don't think I won't do it!!)

...not sure what this post means...but it needed to be said.

Someone is smokin' the purple kush.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The final coup de gras.

I mean compare this to Shug with Sightseeing after finishing second to No Biz in the Wood.

"Shug, will you send Sightseeing to the Derby?"

"No, the horse isn't ready for that yet"

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The final coup de gras.

What happend to the topic on ATRAB last night --- If you have a decent horse then RUN THEM. TAKE SHOT.....The GIANT KILLER takes shots.


Now, I agree he has shown nothing to show he can win....but hell, at least they are running him and will prob get a check out of the deal.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Timed Squared does not belong in the race and its an example of derby fever taking over.

I thought this is what you were agreeing with. It is contrary to what I heard last night, thats all.

I agree that he is in way over his head and his last race was horrible.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

I thought this is what you were agreeing with. It is contrary to what I heard last night, thats all.

I agree that he is in way over his head and his last race was horrible.

It's not contrary to what I was talking about last night. The discussion in this thread centers around somebody saying they like Time Squared and I was saying it was a bad selection. How is that the same as " people need to stop finding reasons not to run their horses? "

Plus, it is not as though I am advocating things like the first time starter in the Arkansas Derby, or even every 50-1 or higher filler running in races. I think my actual point is fairly clear, unless someone is trying to cleverly attempt to put words in my mouth, and it has a lot to do with horses like Hard Spun and not no shotters like Time Squared.....who I couldn't care less about whether he is running or not. I just don't recommend betting him. Surely you have heard people at the racetrack say " that horse does not belong with these." or some such comments. Do you always take that to mean the person is against them being in the race?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

I thought this is what you were agreeing with. It is contrary to what I heard last night, thats all.

I agree that he is in way over his head and his last race was horrible.

root, these are just opinions, yes that is my opinion. I think he is terribly over-matched and I would not run the horse in this spot, and I would not consider betting him in this spot.

I'm not faulting the trainer, or saying I know better. but I am questioning the decision.

sure run the horse, take a shot, it's a free country, try to be like the Giant-killer. that doesn't mean however that I have to agree with everyone that does it.

is it really though in the best interest of the horse to run back on a weeks rest moving from maidens to Gr1? would they do it in any other circumstance other than with the derby looming three weeks away? In my opinion I think not. it looks to me like they have been pushing him this year, they ran him in the Sham as a maiden. I just hope they know what they're doing and don't push him so much that it ends up setting the horse back or worse.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok.....I think he can win because........


like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

This years three year old crop has not standouts, there are alot of very good horses but no great ones, and i know alot of ppl think the big 2 are in this race but i really do think this race could be ripe for a upset. Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly, as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

You hang in there PG.

In fairness, I've seen a lot less sound reasoning for taking a stand against what's going to be a short priced favorite and a fairly short second favorite.

Whether PG is landing on the right one to take a shot with is another question.

But at least he shows some imagination looking at the race and throwing conventional wisdom out. That's how you should handicap.

According to everyone posting here, PG is the only person in the world who bet Discreet Cat. If Street Sense gets beat, no one here will admit to betting or singling him either.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

According to everyone posting here, PG is the only person in the world who bet Discreet Cat. If Street Sense gets beat, no one here will admit to betting or singling him either.

I won't have bet either.