Time Squared, can he upset the bluegrass ?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he wasn't by FuPeg and out of an AP Indy mare, I don't think anyone would be excited by him. His performances have not been exciting at all.
He is being rushed into this spot in my opinion.
The two favorites in this race are - I believe - the best two 3yos running right now and Great Hunter in particular has already proven his effectiveness on the Poly.
I wouldn't throw a dime at TS.

Agree with everything here. (plus it's not every day a NYbred sells for over a million)

Squared is a good looking horse, but he couldn't even win a beauty contest against GH & Street let alone a race.

[blackthroatedwind]

One of the surest signs of a losing horseplayer is someone who marries himself ( or herself ) to horses they have cashed bets on. While some might call it loyalty, what it really is is stupidity, as every race is different, and nobody who sanely looks at the pps for this Blue Grass Stakes can honestly give Time Squared anything even remotely close to an outside chance. He is WAY too slow....period.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One of the surest signs of a losing horseplayer is someone who marries himself ( or herself ) to horses they have cashed bets on. While some might call it loyalty, what it really is is stupidity, as every race is different, and nobody who sanely looks at the pps for this Blue Grass Stakes can honestly give Time Squared anything even remotely close to an outside chance. He is WAY too slow....period.

i dont know if you are directing the above statement towards me, but if you are i never bet Time Squared, he was way to short a price last week, i also never said that i bet him last week, i just thought he was a standout vs the group last week, and as for him being way to slow, thats fine alot bigger upsets have happened.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i have to respond again, you have to be directing your above statements at me because no one else said they thought he could win, so in that case..... where do you get off calling me a losing horseplayer ? i do pretty good, and latley i have been especialy hot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i have to respond again, you have to be directing your above statements at me because no one else said they thought he could win, so in that case..... where do you get off calling me a losing horseplayer ? i do pretty good, and latley i have been especialy hot.

Of course you are guilty of this and have demonstrated this tendancy repeatedly on this site. I'm just trying to help you lose less.

Making Tiago your third likeliest Derby winner after you won on him last week was the latest glaring example that comes to mind....after Time Squared that is.

There is a lot of " I want to be a wise guy " disease running rampant and there is, of course, no easier spot to take crazy shots than the internet....the land of no accountability. You aren't a " wise guy " if you pick horses like Time Squared.....you're ridiculous. Being a wise guy is knowing when strong favorites are vulnerable AND when they aren't. Being a " wise guy " is understanding what longshots may be interesting, and why, and not just throwing as much sh1t against the wall as you can and waiting for some of it to stick.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Of course you are guilty of this and have demonstrated this tendancy repeatedly on this site. I'm just trying to help you lose less.

Making Tiago your third likeliest Derby winner after you won on him last week was the latest glaring example that comes to mind....after Time Squared that is.

There is a lot of " I want to be a wise guy " disease running rampant and there is, of course, no easier spot to take crazy shots than the internet....the land of no accountability. You aren't a " wise guy " if you pick horses like Time Squared.....you're ridiculous. Being a wise guy is knowing when strong favorites are vulnerable AND when they aren't. Being a " wise guy " is understanding what longshots may be interesting, and why, and not just throwing as much sh1t against the wall as you can and waiting for some of it to stick.

I NEVER said i was a wise guy, i bet horse's a couple days a week but when i bet, i bet heavy.....i like the horse i think he has a shot, i dont see what your saying as trying to help me, if you were trying to help me i'd take your advice and listen to you, because i know that i am VERY FAR from being perfect, i know im not the best. In my opinion you are accusing me of just picking horses and hoping the run big so i can look good, and that is not what i do. Belive me i would take your advice but dont sit here and try to make me look bad and then say " IM TRYING TO HELP YOU"

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

I NEVER said i was a wise guy, i bet horse's a couple days a week but when i bet, i bet heavy.....i like the horse i think he has a shot, i dont see what your saying as trying to help me, if you were trying to help me i'd take your advice and listen to you, because i know that i am VERY FAR from being perfect, i know im not the best. In my opinion you are accusing me of just picking horses and hoping the run big so i can look good, and that is not what i do. Belive me i would take your advice but dont sit here and try to make me look bad and then say " IM TRYING TO HELP YOU"

He IS trying to help you... believe me, his patience with you has been incredible.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

I NEVER said i was a wise guy, i bet horse's a couple days a week but when i bet, i bet heavy.....i like the horse i think he has a shot, i dont see what your saying as trying to help me, if you were trying to help me i'd take your advice and listen to you, because i know that i am VERY FAR from being perfect, i know im not the best. In my opinion you are accusing me of just picking horses and hoping the run big so i can look good, and that is not what i do. Belive me i would take your advice but dont sit here and try to make me look bad and then say " IM TRYING TO HELP YOU"

I am not trying to make you look bad....you are doing that by yourself. I am just pointing out the silliness of picking a horse like Time Squared, as I did when you picked Raceland a few weeks ago at Aqueduct, as it is either a desperate cry for attention or a dangerously poor opinion.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There is a lot of " I want to be a wise guy " disease running rampant and there is, of course, no easier spot to take crazy shots than the internet....the land of no accountability. You aren't a " wise guy " if you pick horses like Time Squared.....you're ridiculous. Being a wise guy is knowing when strong favorites are vulnerable AND when they aren't. Being a " wise guy " is understanding what longshots may be interesting, and why, and not just throwing as much sh1t against the wall as you can and waiting for some of it to stick.

Alright PG, you and I have talked about this.

Here, look at the words that I've bold faced. He IS, once again, trying to teach you something, he is NOT making fun of you.

Read his lesson and learn what a "wiseguy" is--in terms of the world of professional bettor's parlance. This is what he is explaining to you, for your benefit.

It is a lesson for you to learn, and a good one.

Don't get ragged when he throws up his hands and says, "hell with you."

You are stubborn as a mule, and sometimes, you do convey that you know more than so many that have been at this far longer than yourself.

Even blind pigs find nuggets now and then, but in the meantime, try to be less sensitive. And understand no one is against you--its not the case.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Grits

Alright PG, you and I have talked about this.

Here, look at the words that I've bold faced. He IS, once again, trying to teach you something, he is NOT making fun of you.

Read his lesson and learn what a "wiseguy" is--in terms of the world of professional bettor's parlance. This is what he is explaining to you, for your benefit.

It is a lesson for you to learn, and a good one.

Don't get ragged when he throws up his hands and says, "hell with you."

You are stubborn as a mule, and sometimes, you do convey that you know more than so many that have been at this far longer than yourself.

Even blind pigs find nuggets now and then, but in the meantime, try to be less sensitive. And understand no one is against you--its not the case.

ok.. your right

[byalip]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One of the surest signs of a losing horseplayer is someone who marries himself ( or herself ) to horses they have cashed bets on. While some might call it loyalty, what it really is is stupidity, as every race is different, and nobody who sanely looks at the pps for this Blue Grass Stakes can honestly give Time Squared anything even remotely close to an outside chance. He is WAY too slow....period.

This is one of the best maxims in betting...something I relearn the hard way every year. You have to figure out WHO is going to win, not who you WANT to win.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by byalip

This is one of the best maxims in betting...something I relearn the hard way every year. You have to figure out WHO is going to win, not who you WANT to win.

Oh he read that on yahoo somewheres.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by byalip

This is one of the best maxims in betting...something I relearn the hard way every year. You have to figure out WHO is going to win, not who you WANT to win.

i agree with that 100% and the truth is i have no favorites in this race, no horse that i personally really like is running, but i do honestly feel that he could possibly win, its a long shot, a upset but it would be no bigger then Tiago winning last week.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i agree with that 100% and the truth is i have no favorites in this race, no horse that i personally really like is running, but i do honestly feel that he could possibly win, its a long shot, a upset but it would be no bigger then Tiago winning last week.

Instead of just coming out and saying that you honestly think he can win, tell us what that is based on. Make the case, convince us. What is your rationale?

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Instead of just coming out and saying that you honestly think he can win, tell us what that is based on. Make the case, convince us. What is your rationale?

ok.....I think he can win because........


like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

This years three year old crop has not standouts, there are alot of very good horses but no great ones, and i know alot of ppl think the big 2 are in this race but i really do think this race could be ripe for a upset. Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly, as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

I am not entirely sure that Time Squared is aware of the graded earnings system that the Derby employs. I am therefore afraid that his ignorance regarding this issue may force him to just run around the track without that extra special motivation (like the rest of the horses).
This is obviously problematic because there are other horses in the race that can run around the track faster than him.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok.....I think he can win because........


like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

This years three year old crop has not standouts, there are alot of very good horses but no great ones, and i know alot of ppl think the big 2 are in this race but i really do think this race could be ripe for a upset. Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly, as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

while i still don't agree with you about times squared -- this is a perfect lesson in what a little bit of spelling things out will do for you as opposed to just take strongheaded opinions and spouting them with nothing behind them.

i didn't find it convincing, but i do find it much more endearing than just saying $600000 WPS.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

Watch the replay, he wasn't in hand the whole trip and did not win easy. He had no speed early on in a race that was horribly, hideously slow. It took him the length of the stretch and he just got up by a length.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

This years three year old crop has not standouts,there are alot of very good horses but no great ones,

Define standouts. Do you mean compared with historical perspective? Maybe that is true that there are no standouts compared to other years, but our task here is to handicap this particular race, and I must tell you that
compared to Time Squared, every horse in this field is a standout.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly,

you say Any Given Saturday ran horrible in the Wood? He did regress but he actually only lost by three lengths to your superstar horse No Biz.
A more accurate description of a horrible race would be Time Squared's only attempt at taking on the better horses in this crop (which you have already stated does not contain any standouts) in the Sham. He was dead last losing by 17 lengths. And this is a race that has been exposed as not being a strong prep.

and as far as Street Sense never winning on the poly? as if Time Squared has the edge on him because of his maiden win last Friday? are you serious?
Street Sense was third beaten less than 2 lengths in a grade1 on the poly at this very track last fall. The horses that beat him were Great Hunter and Circular Quay.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Let me just say that there is no link between Tiago beating Sam P in the SA Derby, and Time Squared therefore being able to take down Street Sense and Great Hunter in the Blue Grass.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

HAHA, the big two? Time Squared has to worry about more than the big two as there are several other much more accomplished horses. Teuflesberg, Zanjero, Dominican, Love Dubai, all of these horses are faster and more accomplished than Time Squared. If one or both of the big two have a so-so day and get upset, it will be by one of these other horses.

Timed Squared does not belong in the race and its an example of derby fever taking over.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok.....I think he can win because........


like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

This years three year old crop has not standouts, there are alot of very good horses but no great ones, and i know alot of ppl think the big 2 are in this race but i really do think this race could be ripe for a upset. Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly, as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

You hang in there PG.

In fairness, I've seen a lot less sound reasoning for taking a stand against what's going to be a short priced favorite and a fairly short second favorite.

Whether PG is landing on the right one to take a shot with is another question.

But at least he shows some imagination looking at the race and throwing conventional wisdom out. That's how you should handicap.

According to everyone posting here, PG is the only person in the world who bet Discreet Cat. If Street Sense gets beat, no one here will admit to betting or singling him either.