Cowtown Cat gets huge BRIS #. Cobalt Blue gets excused

[JJP]

It was a crawlfest. I don't care what the BRIS pace figure says; they were crawling. But any horse who wins like that usually is fraudulent and overbet next time out (i.e. Cobalt Blue was coming off that scenario going into this race).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm amazed though, the allegiance by which handicappers adhere to Beyer speed figures--and little else.

I know of very few serious handicappers who adhere to speed figures and little else.....

And those few tend to be sheet players.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by flifishri

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

good question, i always look at that angle mainly.

E1 E2 LP SPD
91 100 105 108 Illinois Derby
70 86 104 96 Gotham


When I look at this it is highly unusual because whenever a horse runs such a big improvement in the E1 and E2 numbers, there is usually a decline in the LP number. Why? Because the horse has less leftover for the finish.

That race was a momumental improvment for Cowtown Cat. You normally don't see that kind of jump unless it was a horse claimed by Scott Lake.

Also the Bris pace numbers showed the race to be under par -5 and -8. Figure that one out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There is a man of great talent (cmorioles) who makes his own pace figures, and posts here from time to time....I'd be quite interested to see how he had the race from a pace standpoint.

This race was just a hard read for me all-around. All I know for sure is that I want no part of the winner in the Derby....as I believe he had everything in his favor.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know of very few serious handicappers who adhere to speed figures and little else.....

And those few tend to be sheet players.

My thought on this mainly noting how much and how often--Beyers are quoted. So much emphasis being placed there.

And true, you are right, serious players use every bit of data before them placing great importance on charts, trouble, etc.

All of which bring to mind, Octave, on Saturday had the trip from hell.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product..

It deceived me for a long time.....looking back that was really stupid and wonder how much it hurt my handicapping.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know of very few serious handicappers who adhere to speed figures and little else.....

And those few tend to be sheet players.

amen men to that.....

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

Not to mention rarely run at multiple class levels; therefore a skewed sample is resultant for the "par" time.

One thing I do like about Timeforms (as useless as they are) is they provide a "key" to the confidence level in the fig.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There is a man of great talent (cmorioles) who makes his own pace figures, and posts here from time to time....I'd be quite interested to see how he had the race from a pace standpoint.

This race was just a hard read for me all-around. All I know for sure is that I want no part of the winner in the Derby....as I believe he had everything in his favor.

drugs he has 84 pace 88 speed figure, a very week race, probably too weak if you ask me. I want to discuss this figure with him as he is on vacation this week, think its probably a tad low, but its obviously bogus by Bris.

[Pointg5]

I think he's going to be a factor going into the Derby and I will most likely use him in the top spot:

He was brilliant enough at 2 to track a quick pace and kick out a 92 BSF.

He can come from off the pace and be on the pace or track slow fractions.

He doesn't fight the rider.

He will be overlooked big time in the Derby and should offer a nice price.

I don't think the pace will be fast in the Derby and he could make the lead or stay just off of it. I think he will be left alone by most of the other jockeys.

I don't have "jockey love" in fact I think there's not much difference between them, but if Jara stays aboard, he's won the Belmont, The BC Classic, DWC within the last year, so he should be fine.

and he wins under different circumstances.

[Pointg5]

And most of all, these are all average horses this year

Plus he's had four preps this year, and he's going to have 4 weeks rest, so he could go forward.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

drugs he has 84 pace 88 speed figure, a very week race, probably too weak if you ask me. I want to discuss this figure with him as he is on vacation this week, think its probably a tad low, but its obviously bogus by Bris.

He has an 88, Beyer has a 98, and Bris has a 108......I couldn't even manage a guess at it myself. And whatever it is, it won't matter much anyway in my opinion, because of the way the track was. Interesting anyway.

[Thunder Gulch]

CC's last two races

E1 E2/ LP Final
83 97/ 110 106 ....Illinois
70 86/104 96.... Gotham

One note on these. Bris upgraded their product to include "race shape" comparisons of the first and second pace calls. CC's last 2 races.

1c 2c
-12 -9...Illi
-18 -8...Gotham
You can clearly see from this that CC benefitted from very slow pace calls. On the Bris scale, 1L = 2pts, so the first call of the Ill Derby was 6L slower than par. When this happens, you can almost always expect a front runner to put the field away. The Gotham was even slower early. He'll have to run 10 lengths faster to the pace calls in the Derby to maintain the same track position in that field. It takes an extremely talented animal to do this, and I just don't think this guy can maintain that pace and have anything left.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

CC's last two races

E1 E2/ LP Final
83 97/ 110 106 ....Illinois
70 86/104 96.... Gotham

One note on these. Bris upgraded their product to include "race shape" comparisons of the first and second pace calls. CC's last 2 races.

1c 2c
-12 -9...Illi
-18 -8...Gotham
You can clearly see from this that CC benefitted from very slow pace calls. On the Bris scale, 1L = 2pts, so the first call of the Ill Derby was 6L slower than par. When this happens, you can almost always expect a front runner to put the field away. The Gotham was even slower early. He'll have to run 10 lengths faster to the pace calls in the Derby to maintain the same track position in that field. It takes an extremely talented animal to do this, and I just don't think this guy can maintain that pace and have anything left.

Strange, on the PP's I downloaded last night the race shape numbers for the Illinois are -5 -8.

I just pulled them again for the KD future wager and they are like you say, -12 -9, even slower.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He has an 88, Beyer has a 98, and Bris has a 108......I couldn't even manage a guess at it myself. And whatever it is, it won't matter much anyway in my opinion, because of the way the track was. Interesting anyway.

sorry, when you said that I went back and his figures were not updated for this weekend and that is the gotham #, I ran the derby file at work and will check what it was, probably alot closer to the 98, sorry.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Last week, in the three major KY Derby prep races, the host track carded only one other two-turn dirt route race on each occasion.

This not only makes things difficult for figure makers who split route and sprint variants, but it also makes it hard on analytical handicappers who are looking to evaluate these performances.

It's interesting to see that Cowtown Cat recieved the fastest number of the three preps on BRIS's computerized speed figures...and by a clear-cut margin. While Tiago recieved the slowest number. The Beyer figures had the opposite occuring.

In fact, the 108 BRIS figure by Cowtown Cat is OUTRIGHT the fastest BRIS number earned in any Derby prep. How strong is it? By comparison, Holy Bull's career best BRIS was a 112. Horse of the year A. P. Indy's career top BRIS was just a 110.

What no one's figure will tell you is that Cowtown Cat certainly had everything working in his favor Saturday. For instance,

* Of the 10 dirt races run at Hawthorne on Saturday, A remarkable 7 were won in wire-to-wire fashion! The three who failed all finished 2nd. Meaning, the horse who held the lead after a 1/4 mile compiled a dazzling 10-7-3-0 record. That seems to obviously indicate a potential speed bias.

* Inside posts have been dominant all meet at Hawthorne, and that trend continued Saturday. Post position 1 racked up four winners (paying $27.80, $11.00, $4.80, and $7.40) and had three 2nd place finishes. By simply boxing the three inside posts in exactas, you'd have hit five of ten exactas (paying $121.60, $23.80, $28.80, $88.60, and $21.00) and by simply boxing the four inside posts in trifectas, you'd have hit an amazing 7 out of 10 trifectas. In the ILL Derby, the four inside posts made up a $2,081.00 superfecta. Every winner on dirt raced inside for most of the running according to the charts.

Much like in Southwest Stakes with Hard Spun, heavily favored Cobalt Blue, who is typically a speed horse, found himself rating off a soft early pace, and three wide throughout on an inside-speed track. The result was a 7th place finish, beaten 18+ lengths, at even money odds. The most hardened students of trips will tell you that he ran just as good on Saturday, as he did in his SA Stakes win, where he had a DREAM front-end trip on a slow pace.

While Cobalt Blue was the victim of circumstances, Cowtown Cat was obviously strongly aided by them. If you believe the very modest 98 Beyer Speed figure he recieved---than he's a very good bet to finish 12th or worse in the Kentucky Derby. However, if you believe the spectacular 108 BRIS figure he earned, it's not quite as easy to assume he'll finish way up the track, however...it is highly unlikely that he gets everything in his favor like he did Saturday.

hey, maybe that accounts for what happened to the winner of last year's illinois derby as well! what was his name again?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Sweetnorthernsaint

[Grits]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There is a man of great talent (cmorioles) who makes his own pace figures, and posts here from time to time....I'd be quite interested to see how he had the race from a pace standpoint.

I rarely see this person post, or rarely since my time here, after all the preps are completed I hope he will be checking in more often.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I think he's going to be a factor going into the Derby and I will most likely use him in the top spot:

He was brilliant enough at 2 to track a quick pace and kick out a 92 BSF.

He can come from off the pace and be on the pace or track slow fractions.

He doesn't fight the rider.

He will be overlooked big time in the Derby and should offer a nice price.

I don't think the pace will be fast in the Derby and he could make the lead or stay just off of it. I think he will be left alone by most of the other jockeys.

I don't have "jockey love" in fact I think there's not much difference between them, but if Jara stays aboard, he's won the Belmont, The BC Classic, DWC within the last year, so he should be fine.

and he wins under different circumstances.

Good luck with that.
He isn't a BAD horse, but I think using him on top of exotic wagers in the Kentucky Derby is akin to flushing $10 down the toilet and hoping that the turd faries give you $100 in exchange.
He will be overbet in a big way. His Illinois Derby looks better than it was, and every cat lover and cow lover that bets on derby day will play him.
Jara is a good jock, and you are right about his big wins in the BCC and the DWC. If he was riding the horse he rode in those races I'd play him, but I don't think any jock who ever lived could drag CC over the finish line first in a G1 10f race.
(Plus I already TOLD you.....he will finish exactly 16th)

[10 pnt move up]

Drugs

It was 89 pace and 98 speed, that is an ugly profile for a speed horse who rode an inside bias.