Cowtown Cat gets huge BRIS #. Cobalt Blue gets excused

[ArlJim78]

It seems like every year we can count on the Illinios Derby for a huge number.
I use Bris but when I see a number that sticks out like this, I look for other ways to confirm it, say a comparision to other figures, etc.
CowTown Cats Bris numer jumped by 12 from his NY race. Was it actually that much better?

Longshot Reporting for Duty and Bold Start finished only 2-3 lengths behind Cowtown Cat. Would anyone expect that those two horses would also turn in efforts that would put then right with the leaders in the division? If it was a true 108 breakthru performance from CC, I would have expected a much larger margin between him and the rest of the field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It seems like every year we can count on the Illinios Derby for a huge number.
I use Bris but when I see a number that sticks out like this, I look for other ways to confirm it, say a comparision to other figures, etc.
CowTown Cats Bris numer jumped by 12 from his NY race. Was it actually that much better?

When you consider the fact he was greatly aided by an inside-speed bias, you have to assume he ran a top. The top four finishers all raced on the favorable rail path as well. I believe the 1st, 2nd, and 4th were on it just about every step of the way.

Even if the Bris number is right, and I'm certainly not saying it is, you'd have a winner who is likely to go backwards because of the circumstances he took advantage of. And, even the horses behind him all had the advantage of racing inside.

That racetrack Saturday was like the old KEE track before they installed the poly.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When you consider the fact he was greatly aided by an inside-speed bias, you have to assume he ran a top. The top four finishers all raced on the favorable rail path as well. I believe the 1st, 2nd, and 4th were on it just about every step of the way.

Even if the Bris number is right, and I'm certainly not saying it is, you'd have a winner who is likely to go backwards because of the circumstances he took advantage of. And, even the horses behind him all had the advantage of racing inside.

That racetrack Saturday was like the old KEE track before they installed the poly.

that racetrack is like that much of the spring and fall. usually when its cold here it favors speed tremendously. my friends uncle whos been going to the track for 50 years here in chicago makes his picks for each race and bets them but regardless whom he likes he boxes 1,2,3 every single race

[flifishri]

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

[Grits]

Originally Posted by flifishri

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

I don't have pps/pace figures from this race.

I'm amazed though, the allegiance by which handicappers adhere to Beyer speed figures--and little else. I've assumed, for the most part, that they were a starting point in a process.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm amazed though, the allegiance by which handicappers adhere to Beyer speed figures--and little else.

I know of very few serious handicappers who adhere to speed figures and little else.....

And those few tend to be sheet players.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know of very few serious handicappers who adhere to speed figures and little else.....

And those few tend to be sheet players.

My thought on this mainly noting how much and how often--Beyers are quoted. So much emphasis being placed there.

And true, you are right, serious players use every bit of data before them placing great importance on charts, trouble, etc.

All of which bring to mind, Octave, on Saturday had the trip from hell.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know of very few serious handicappers who adhere to speed figures and little else.....

And those few tend to be sheet players.

amen men to that.....

[Thunder Gulch]

CC's last two races

E1 E2/ LP Final
83 97/ 110 106 ....Illinois
70 86/104 96.... Gotham

One note on these. Bris upgraded their product to include "race shape" comparisons of the first and second pace calls. CC's last 2 races.

1c 2c
-12 -9...Illi
-18 -8...Gotham
You can clearly see from this that CC benefitted from very slow pace calls. On the Bris scale, 1L = 2pts, so the first call of the Ill Derby was 6L slower than par. When this happens, you can almost always expect a front runner to put the field away. The Gotham was even slower early. He'll have to run 10 lengths faster to the pace calls in the Derby to maintain the same track position in that field. It takes an extremely talented animal to do this, and I just don't think this guy can maintain that pace and have anything left.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

CC's last two races

E1 E2/ LP Final
83 97/ 110 106 ....Illinois
70 86/104 96.... Gotham

One note on these. Bris upgraded their product to include "race shape" comparisons of the first and second pace calls. CC's last 2 races.

1c 2c
-12 -9...Illi
-18 -8...Gotham
You can clearly see from this that CC benefitted from very slow pace calls. On the Bris scale, 1L = 2pts, so the first call of the Ill Derby was 6L slower than par. When this happens, you can almost always expect a front runner to put the field away. The Gotham was even slower early. He'll have to run 10 lengths faster to the pace calls in the Derby to maintain the same track position in that field. It takes an extremely talented animal to do this, and I just don't think this guy can maintain that pace and have anything left.

Strange, on the PP's I downloaded last night the race shape numbers for the Illinois are -5 -8.

I just pulled them again for the KD future wager and they are like you say, -12 -9, even slower.

[10 pnt move up]

Drugs

It was 89 pace and 98 speed, that is an ugly profile for a speed horse who rode an inside bias.

[flifishri]

Well said. i'd be interested in more on how u spot an "off pace" number and how you use the BRIS pace figs in general. Thanks

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by flifishri

Well said. i'd be interested in more on how u spot an "off pace" number and how you use the BRIS pace figs in general. Thanks

I'm not sure using any BRIS figures is a great idea but to each their own.

[Rootdog1]

I find them useful, much better then Beyers figs. Use them as a guide to pick out ones that look to either of had a positive or negative race set up (pace, trouble, etc)....then go watch replays. But to each their own...

[JJP]

It was a crawlfest. I don't care what the BRIS pace figure says; they were crawling. But any horse who wins like that usually is fraudulent and overbet next time out (i.e. Cobalt Blue was coming off that scenario going into this race).

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by flifishri

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

good question, i always look at that angle mainly.

E1 E2 LP SPD
91 100 105 108 Illinois Derby
70 86 104 96 Gotham


When I look at this it is highly unusual because whenever a horse runs such a big improvement in the E1 and E2 numbers, there is usually a decline in the LP number. Why? Because the horse has less leftover for the finish.

That race was a momumental improvment for Cowtown Cat. You normally don't see that kind of jump unless it was a horse claimed by Scott Lake.

Also the Bris pace numbers showed the race to be under par -5 and -8. Figure that one out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There is a man of great talent (cmorioles) who makes his own pace figures, and posts here from time to time....I'd be quite interested to see how he had the race from a pace standpoint.

This race was just a hard read for me all-around. All I know for sure is that I want no part of the winner in the Derby....as I believe he had everything in his favor.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There is a man of great talent (cmorioles) who makes his own pace figures, and posts here from time to time....I'd be quite interested to see how he had the race from a pace standpoint.

This race was just a hard read for me all-around. All I know for sure is that I want no part of the winner in the Derby....as I believe he had everything in his favor.

drugs he has 84 pace 88 speed figure, a very week race, probably too weak if you ask me. I want to discuss this figure with him as he is on vacation this week, think its probably a tad low, but its obviously bogus by Bris.

[Pointg5]

I think he's going to be a factor going into the Derby and I will most likely use him in the top spot:

He was brilliant enough at 2 to track a quick pace and kick out a 92 BSF.

He can come from off the pace and be on the pace or track slow fractions.

He doesn't fight the rider.

He will be overlooked big time in the Derby and should offer a nice price.

I don't think the pace will be fast in the Derby and he could make the lead or stay just off of it. I think he will be left alone by most of the other jockeys.

I don't have "jockey love" in fact I think there's not much difference between them, but if Jara stays aboard, he's won the Belmont, The BC Classic, DWC within the last year, so he should be fine.

and he wins under different circumstances.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

drugs he has 84 pace 88 speed figure, a very week race, probably too weak if you ask me. I want to discuss this figure with him as he is on vacation this week, think its probably a tad low, but its obviously bogus by Bris.

He has an 88, Beyer has a 98, and Bris has a 108......I couldn't even manage a guess at it myself. And whatever it is, it won't matter much anyway in my opinion, because of the way the track was. Interesting anyway.