Cowtown Cat gets huge BRIS #. Cobalt Blue gets excused

[NTamm1215]

Excellent post and I think this is a great way to discuss how one must analyze track conditions on a given day or over a season to see if winners were remarkable or simply beneficiaries of circumstance.

What stuck out to me and maybe it was a simple way to look at it was that this was a pretty good ride by Fernando Jara. He knew the three horses inside of him didn't have a lick of early speed and that if he beat Cobalt Blue to the first turn the track was basically going to carry him home. To me, that was the only scenario with which Cowtown could win. I did not believe for a second that he could run down a "loose on the lead" Cobalt Blue. So whether Fernando did this on his own or got instructions from whatever assistant was there representing Team Pletcher, it was the right way to do it.

NT

[JJP]

I use a scale similar to Beyer and I gave Cowtown Cat a 98. Since Haw absorbed the Spt meet, we see quite a few great rails in the spring meet. The fall meet has many more neutral tracks, and some dead rail days as well.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Excellent post and I think this is a great way to discuss how one must analyze track conditions on a given day or over a season to see if winners were remarkable or simply beneficiaries of circumstance.

What stuck out to me and maybe it was a simple way to look at it was that this was a pretty good ride by Fernando Jara. He knew the three horses inside of him didn't have a lick of early speed and that if he beat Cobalt Blue to the first turn the track was basically going to carry him home. To me, that was the only scenario with which Cowtown could win. I did not believe for a second that he could run down a "loose on the lead" Cobalt Blue. So whether Fernando did this on his own or got instructions from whatever assistant was there representing Team Pletcher, it was the right way to do it.

NT

Bold Start could've (AND SHOULD'VE) beaten Cowtown Cat to the lead but Melancon was hell bent on strangling him early. If he beats CC to the lead after a 1/4, he probably draws away by 5.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Excellent post and I think this is a great way to discuss how one must analyze track conditions on a given day or over a season to see if winners were remarkable or simply beneficiaries of circumstance.

What stuck out to me and maybe it was a simple way to look at it was that this was a pretty good ride by Fernando Jara. He knew the three horses inside of him didn't have a lick of early speed and that if he beat Cobalt Blue to the first turn the track was basically going to carry him home. To me, that was the only scenario with which Cowtown could win. I did not believe for a second that he could run down a "loose on the lead" Cobalt Blue. So whether Fernando did this on his own or got instructions from whatever assistant was there representing Team Pletcher, it was the right way to do it.

NT

That's not entirely true as only a pathetically inept ride by Larry Melancon on Bold Start, who had post two, kept that one from perhaps wiring the field.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's not entirely true as only a pathetically inept ride by Larry Melancon on Bold Start, who had post two, kept that one from perhaps wiring the field.

I suppose I agree considering Bold Start did show a little speed with Melancon at River last year. I imagine I didn't see Bold Start as a possibility wiring because I wasn't alive the last time Larry Melancon rode a wire to wire winner in a graded stakes race.

NT

[ArlJim78]

It seems like every year we can count on the Illinios Derby for a huge number.
I use Bris but when I see a number that sticks out like this, I look for other ways to confirm it, say a comparision to other figures, etc.
CowTown Cats Bris numer jumped by 12 from his NY race. Was it actually that much better?

Longshot Reporting for Duty and Bold Start finished only 2-3 lengths behind Cowtown Cat. Would anyone expect that those two horses would also turn in efforts that would put then right with the leaders in the division? If it was a true 108 breakthru performance from CC, I would have expected a much larger margin between him and the rest of the field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It seems like every year we can count on the Illinios Derby for a huge number.
I use Bris but when I see a number that sticks out like this, I look for other ways to confirm it, say a comparision to other figures, etc.
CowTown Cats Bris numer jumped by 12 from his NY race. Was it actually that much better?

When you consider the fact he was greatly aided by an inside-speed bias, you have to assume he ran a top. The top four finishers all raced on the favorable rail path as well. I believe the 1st, 2nd, and 4th were on it just about every step of the way.

Even if the Bris number is right, and I'm certainly not saying it is, you'd have a winner who is likely to go backwards because of the circumstances he took advantage of. And, even the horses behind him all had the advantage of racing inside.

That racetrack Saturday was like the old KEE track before they installed the poly.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When you consider the fact he was greatly aided by an inside-speed bias, you have to assume he ran a top. The top four finishers all raced on the favorable rail path as well. I believe the 1st, 2nd, and 4th were on it just about every step of the way.

Even if the Bris number is right, and I'm certainly not saying it is, you'd have a winner who is likely to go backwards because of the circumstances he took advantage of. And, even the horses behind him all had the advantage of racing inside.

That racetrack Saturday was like the old KEE track before they installed the poly.

that racetrack is like that much of the spring and fall. usually when its cold here it favors speed tremendously. my friends uncle whos been going to the track for 50 years here in chicago makes his picks for each race and bets them but regardless whom he likes he boxes 1,2,3 every single race

[flifishri]

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

[Grits]

Originally Posted by flifishri

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

I don't have pps/pace figures from this race.

I'm amazed though, the allegiance by which handicappers adhere to Beyer speed figures--and little else. I've assumed, for the most part, that they were a starting point in a process.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm amazed though, the allegiance by which handicappers adhere to Beyer speed figures--and little else.

I know of very few serious handicappers who adhere to speed figures and little else.....

And those few tend to be sheet players.

[Thunder Gulch]

CC's last two races

E1 E2/ LP Final
83 97/ 110 106 ....Illinois
70 86/104 96.... Gotham

One note on these. Bris upgraded their product to include "race shape" comparisons of the first and second pace calls. CC's last 2 races.

1c 2c
-12 -9...Illi
-18 -8...Gotham
You can clearly see from this that CC benefitted from very slow pace calls. On the Bris scale, 1L = 2pts, so the first call of the Ill Derby was 6L slower than par. When this happens, you can almost always expect a front runner to put the field away. The Gotham was even slower early. He'll have to run 10 lengths faster to the pace calls in the Derby to maintain the same track position in that field. It takes an extremely talented animal to do this, and I just don't think this guy can maintain that pace and have anything left.

[10 pnt move up]

Drugs

It was 89 pace and 98 speed, that is an ugly profile for a speed horse who rode an inside bias.

[flifishri]

Well said. i'd be interested in more on how u spot an "off pace" number and how you use the BRIS pace figs in general. Thanks

[JJP]

It was a crawlfest. I don't care what the BRIS pace figure says; they were crawling. But any horse who wins like that usually is fraudulent and overbet next time out (i.e. Cobalt Blue was coming off that scenario going into this race).

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by flifishri

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

good question, i always look at that angle mainly.

E1 E2 LP SPD
91 100 105 108 Illinois Derby
70 86 104 96 Gotham


When I look at this it is highly unusual because whenever a horse runs such a big improvement in the E1 and E2 numbers, there is usually a decline in the LP number. Why? Because the horse has less leftover for the finish.

That race was a momumental improvment for Cowtown Cat. You normally don't see that kind of jump unless it was a horse claimed by Scott Lake.

Also the Bris pace numbers showed the race to be under par -5 and -8. Figure that one out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There is a man of great talent (cmorioles) who makes his own pace figures, and posts here from time to time....I'd be quite interested to see how he had the race from a pace standpoint.

This race was just a hard read for me all-around. All I know for sure is that I want no part of the winner in the Derby....as I believe he had everything in his favor.