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#7
04-11-2007, 09:02 AM
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Excellent post and I think this is a great way to discuss how one must analyze track conditions on a given day or over a season to see if winners were remarkable or simply beneficiaries of circumstance.
What stuck out to me and maybe it was a simple way to look at it was that this was a pretty good ride by Fernando Jara. He knew the three horses inside of him didn't have a lick of early speed and that if he beat Cobalt Blue to the first turn the track was basically going to carry him home. To me, that was the only scenario with which Cowtown could win. I did not believe for a second that he could run down a "loose on the lead" Cobalt Blue. So whether Fernando did this on his own or got instructions from whatever assistant was there representing Team Pletcher, it was the right way to do it. NT 
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