Cowtown Cat gets huge BRIS #. Cobalt Blue gets excused

[brianwspencer]

Great post Drugs -- it's a systematic issue to consider most days at Hawthorne throughout the winter, when days without bias exist, but are the exception.

The one addition I would make to your post, is that 'Cat still came home in a more than acceptable time for his last three-eighths. So while the inside has been the place to be and the lead has been the place to be -- horses haven't been finishing their races that impressively on the front end at Hawthorne. So regardless of the fact that 'Cat was allowed to loaf on the front end early, he still came home very well without being ridden that aggressively by Jara in the final 1/16th.

For me, it's a very enigmatic performance. I don't know what to make of it.

[NTamm1215]

Excellent post and I think this is a great way to discuss how one must analyze track conditions on a given day or over a season to see if winners were remarkable or simply beneficiaries of circumstance.

What stuck out to me and maybe it was a simple way to look at it was that this was a pretty good ride by Fernando Jara. He knew the three horses inside of him didn't have a lick of early speed and that if he beat Cobalt Blue to the first turn the track was basically going to carry him home. To me, that was the only scenario with which Cowtown could win. I did not believe for a second that he could run down a "loose on the lead" Cobalt Blue. So whether Fernando did this on his own or got instructions from whatever assistant was there representing Team Pletcher, it was the right way to do it.

NT

[JJP]

I use a scale similar to Beyer and I gave Cowtown Cat a 98. Since Haw absorbed the Spt meet, we see quite a few great rails in the spring meet. The fall meet has many more neutral tracks, and some dead rail days as well.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Excellent post and I think this is a great way to discuss how one must analyze track conditions on a given day or over a season to see if winners were remarkable or simply beneficiaries of circumstance.

What stuck out to me and maybe it was a simple way to look at it was that this was a pretty good ride by Fernando Jara. He knew the three horses inside of him didn't have a lick of early speed and that if he beat Cobalt Blue to the first turn the track was basically going to carry him home. To me, that was the only scenario with which Cowtown could win. I did not believe for a second that he could run down a "loose on the lead" Cobalt Blue. So whether Fernando did this on his own or got instructions from whatever assistant was there representing Team Pletcher, it was the right way to do it.

NT

Bold Start could've (AND SHOULD'VE) beaten Cowtown Cat to the lead but Melancon was hell bent on strangling him early. If he beats CC to the lead after a 1/4, he probably draws away by 5.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Excellent post and I think this is a great way to discuss how one must analyze track conditions on a given day or over a season to see if winners were remarkable or simply beneficiaries of circumstance.

What stuck out to me and maybe it was a simple way to look at it was that this was a pretty good ride by Fernando Jara. He knew the three horses inside of him didn't have a lick of early speed and that if he beat Cobalt Blue to the first turn the track was basically going to carry him home. To me, that was the only scenario with which Cowtown could win. I did not believe for a second that he could run down a "loose on the lead" Cobalt Blue. So whether Fernando did this on his own or got instructions from whatever assistant was there representing Team Pletcher, it was the right way to do it.

NT

That's not entirely true as only a pathetically inept ride by Larry Melancon on Bold Start, who had post two, kept that one from perhaps wiring the field.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's not entirely true as only a pathetically inept ride by Larry Melancon on Bold Start, who had post two, kept that one from perhaps wiring the field.

I suppose I agree considering Bold Start did show a little speed with Melancon at River last year. I imagine I didn't see Bold Start as a possibility wiring because I wasn't alive the last time Larry Melancon rode a wire to wire winner in a graded stakes race.

NT

[ArlJim78]

It seems like every year we can count on the Illinios Derby for a huge number.
I use Bris but when I see a number that sticks out like this, I look for other ways to confirm it, say a comparision to other figures, etc.
CowTown Cats Bris numer jumped by 12 from his NY race. Was it actually that much better?

Longshot Reporting for Duty and Bold Start finished only 2-3 lengths behind Cowtown Cat. Would anyone expect that those two horses would also turn in efforts that would put then right with the leaders in the division? If it was a true 108 breakthru performance from CC, I would have expected a much larger margin between him and the rest of the field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It seems like every year we can count on the Illinios Derby for a huge number.
I use Bris but when I see a number that sticks out like this, I look for other ways to confirm it, say a comparision to other figures, etc.
CowTown Cats Bris numer jumped by 12 from his NY race. Was it actually that much better?

When you consider the fact he was greatly aided by an inside-speed bias, you have to assume he ran a top. The top four finishers all raced on the favorable rail path as well. I believe the 1st, 2nd, and 4th were on it just about every step of the way.

Even if the Bris number is right, and I'm certainly not saying it is, you'd have a winner who is likely to go backwards because of the circumstances he took advantage of. And, even the horses behind him all had the advantage of racing inside.

That racetrack Saturday was like the old KEE track before they installed the poly.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When you consider the fact he was greatly aided by an inside-speed bias, you have to assume he ran a top. The top four finishers all raced on the favorable rail path as well. I believe the 1st, 2nd, and 4th were on it just about every step of the way.

Even if the Bris number is right, and I'm certainly not saying it is, you'd have a winner who is likely to go backwards because of the circumstances he took advantage of. And, even the horses behind him all had the advantage of racing inside.

That racetrack Saturday was like the old KEE track before they installed the poly.

that racetrack is like that much of the spring and fall. usually when its cold here it favors speed tremendously. my friends uncle whos been going to the track for 50 years here in chicago makes his picks for each race and bets them but regardless whom he likes he boxes 1,2,3 every single race

[flifishri]

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

[Grits]

Originally Posted by flifishri

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

I don't have pps/pace figures from this race.

I'm amazed though, the allegiance by which handicappers adhere to Beyer speed figures--and little else. I've assumed, for the most part, that they were a starting point in a process.

[JJP]

It was a crawlfest. I don't care what the BRIS pace figure says; they were crawling. But any horse who wins like that usually is fraudulent and overbet next time out (i.e. Cobalt Blue was coming off that scenario going into this race).

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by flifishri

I'm wondering what the 3 BRIS pace figures show for this race compared to earlier CC races. For me that's usually a better indicator than the BRIS speed figure. Anyone know?

good question, i always look at that angle mainly.

E1 E2 LP SPD
91 100 105 108 Illinois Derby
70 86 104 96 Gotham


When I look at this it is highly unusual because whenever a horse runs such a big improvement in the E1 and E2 numbers, there is usually a decline in the LP number. Why? Because the horse has less leftover for the finish.

That race was a momumental improvment for Cowtown Cat. You normally don't see that kind of jump unless it was a horse claimed by Scott Lake.

Also the Bris pace numbers showed the race to be under par -5 and -8. Figure that one out.

[blackthroatedwind]

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

When Fleet Indian won that race with the insane raw number from last year, I believe there was a Graded Stake race for colts that was also run at 9 furlongs and went MUCH slower....albeit it may have been the worst Grade 3 for older males ever...and even still the massive gap in the times seemed fishy.

I think a case can be made that the other numbers you mention were all legit. SNS had a dream trip in that HAW win...and his tough trip 2nd in the Preakness two races later seemed to confirm that number to me. Greeley's Galaxy was bias aided and beat a lousy field by a lopsided margin. In War Emblem's case, he was an impressive Preakness winner two races later. Ten Most Wanted was 2nd in the Belmont two races later..and won the Travers later on.

As for Cowtown Cat's number, it's a hard figure to have any confidence in either way...and I don't even want to stab at it myself.

I agree though---the computerized version of speed figures are more likely to make a big mistake, and mistakes compound with figures, and as they add up the figures become less and less reliable.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When Fleet Indian won that race with the insane raw number from last year, I believe there was a Graded Stake race for colts that was also run at 9 furlongs and went MUCH slower....albeit it may have been the worst Grade 3 for older males ever...and even still the massive gap in the times seemed fishy.

I think a case can be made that the other numbers you mention were all legit. SNS had a dream trip in that HAW win...and his tough trip 2nd in the Preakness two races later seemed to confirm that number to me. Greeley's Galaxy was bias aided and beat a lousy field by a lopsided margin. In War Emblem's case, he was an impressive Preakness winner two races later. Ten Most Wanted was 2nd in the Belmont two races later..and won the Travers later on.

As for Cowtown Cat's number, it's a hard figure to have any confidence in either way...and I don't even want to stab at it myself.

I agree though---the computerized version of speed figures are more likely to make a big mistake, and mistakes compound with figures, and as they add up the figures become less and less reliable.

Yep, Three Hour Nap won a dreadful rendition of the National Jockey Club G3. Summer Book ran second and Courthouse (still looking to clear his NW3X condition...)ran third and was later DQ'ed. For kicks, favorites Colita and Evening Attire ran a long looking last and second to last. That race was just awful, but Fleet Indian ran a monster race and the time was very swift given the surface is was run over which has a tendency to produce less than stunning raw times.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

war emblem did not run@hawthorne he ran his ILL derby at the"new" sportsmans which was heavily speed biased. yeah it was the long stretch in the biz but if you werent within 3 turnin for home you had zero chance

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product..

It deceived me for a long time.....looking back that was really stupid and wonder how much it hurt my handicapping.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

Not to mention rarely run at multiple class levels; therefore a skewed sample is resultant for the "par" time.

One thing I do like about Timeforms (as useless as they are) is they provide a "key" to the confidence level in the fig.