Scat Daddy's FL Derby Beyer

First of all, thank you JJP for sharing all of your hard work with us. That is really nice.

As far as Nobiz beating AGS, I think people are reading a little too much into this race to "make weight" to their arguments. It's okay to back Nobiz, but AGS was forced very wide in the first turn and still somewhat wide on the 2nd turn. He finally hit the wall in the stretch after going the long way. So I dont think it makes Nobiz run any faster that he beat AGS, more or less a melt down for AGS.

More importantly, we coming back to two horses we havent talked about much but could shed more light on this: Chelokee and Sightseeing. THey butted heads with each other at least a couple of times in ALW races at GP. Their head to head score is 1-1. They both appear to have run consistent races once you factor in the ground loss in both of Sightseeings races (breaking from 9/11 holes in these races).

My question is did anybody see these races: (GP 3March, 5th race; GP 11Feb, 7th race). Be interested in any notes on ground loss, and how fast they were running at the end. They dont look to be very fast closers from the PPs but maybe someone saw this better and can comment.

My pt. is that aside from Notional, these two animals are the closest runners we have to the winners No Biz and Scat Daddy. We dont have many data pts to compare to Notional but we have several data pts. that we can use to compare these two horses to the the winners.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

So who is going to get played coming from GP? Scat will be 12-1.

It's hard to believe that a serious player will throw out all the GP runners 3 1/2 weeks prior to the Derby.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by easy goer

First of all, thank you JJP for sharing all of your hard work with us. That is really nice.

As far as Nobiz beating AGS, I think people are reading a little too much into this race to "make weight" to their arguments. It's okay to back Nobiz, but AGS was forced very wide in the first turn and still somewhat wide on the 2nd turn. He finally hit the wall in the stretch after going the long way. So I dont think it makes Nobiz run any faster that he beat AGS, more or less a melt down for AGS.

More importantly, we coming back to two horses we havent talked about much but could shed more light on this: Chelokee and Sightseeing. THey butted heads with each other at least a couple of times in ALW races at GP. Their head to head score is 1-1. They both appear to have run consistent races once you factor in the ground loss in both of Sightseeings races (breaking from 9/11 holes in these races).

My question is did anybody see these races: (GP 3March, 5th race; GP 11Feb, 7th race). Be interested in any notes on ground loss, and how fast they were running at the end. They dont look to be very fast closers from the PPs but maybe someone saw this better and can comment.

My pt. is that aside from Notional, these two animals are the closest runners we have to the winners No Biz and Scat Daddy. We dont have many data pts to compare to Notional but we have several data pts. that we can use to compare these two horses to the the winners.

It will prove to be a very strong NW1X race. True, Chelokee and Sightseeing didn't win their next starts but when you consider the big class hikes, its apparent this was a strong NW1X. And like most unusually strong races, there was a big gap (actually two) in this race. 8 lengths from 6th to 7th then another 10 lengths back to 8th.

I do remember Chelokee getting into some traffic trouble and overcoming it to win. I thought the race had a definite lack of speed and many quality closers, but the fractions were legitimate.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

When I did my figure projections...I had the route races 3 points faster than the Beyer figures.

I guess that 's the Mar 3rd race. I believe Chelokee was blocked on the turn and then found a way to get through and win. Most observers were impressed with this. Sightseeing made some sort of move between 1st and 2and 2nd calls but then "couldnt sustain bid." Did he run into more traffic? was he wrapped up??

The Feb 11 race he also came from 4 len. back this time he was leading in the stretch and was caught by Delightful Kiss who may prove to be pretty decent. Sight. nosed out Chelokee for place in this one, but broke from the 11 hole. Serious ground loss here; if you can win from the 11 hole they make a movie about you..

I'd like to know if this horse has the will to pass other horses or just moves up when he's in the clear. The Feb 11 race sounds like he has the will to pass horses. Not sure about the other race, did he pass tired horses or actually move past them?

Does Prado have a derby horse yet? Edgar rode him in GP but Castellano for the Wood. Sightseeing connections dont appear to be derby bound but...?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When I did my figure projections...I had the route races 3 points faster than the Beyer figures.

DrugS, three questions that are probably fairly obvious, but I want to be sure. (1) when you do your figs, do you do them before you look at the Beyer figs? (2) are your figs "tripless" figs (ie, not trying to add or subtract for bias, trouble, etc?, and (3) are they on the same scale as the BSF's ? (ie, in a perfect world, would they match up exactly?

Thanks,
--Dunbar

PS--very nice thread-starter, JJP!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes, I make my projections before I see what the Beyer figure maker came back with...and I use the same scale.

I never add or subtract points for ground loss, bad trips, etc. I don't believe it's wise to. I might think a horse might have had about 2 or 3 lengths worth of trouble--but I would never factor that into the number....because those type of things can be difficult to quantify so accurately, and aren't always that cut and dry.

If you make a mistake with a figure--and have a number wrong, it can compound itself in the future, because you are going to be using that number when you make future figures. That's why I think non-computerized speed figures tend to act a lot more conservative when a tricky situation arises.

Now, I will sometimes take race circumstances and stuff like bias and pace into consideration when I do a card where a race on it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. There are some real easy days, where you can have a figure for every horse on the card in less than 10 minutes time and be totally confident it's the right number. And, there are other days, when it is very hard to have complete confidence in the numbers that you came back with. For example, if there is only one route race on the card, you don't have much to work with. Or, if there is a change in weather.

[slotdirt]

This is an awesome thread. Thanks, guys.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes, I make my projections before I see what the Beyer figure maker came back with...and I use the same scale.

I never add or subtract points for ground loss, bad trips, etc. I don't believe it's wise to. I might think a horse might have had about 2 or 3 lengths worth of trouble--but I would never factor that into the number....because those type of things can be difficult to quantify so accurately, and aren't always that cut and dry.

If you make a mistake with a figure--and have a number wrong, it can compound itself in the future, because you are going to be using that number when you make future figures. That's why I think non-computerized speed figures tend to act a lot more conservative when a tricky situation arises.

Now, I will sometimes take race circumstances and stuff like bias and pace into consideration when I do a card where a race on it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. There are some real easy days, where you can have a figure for every horse on the card in less than 10 minutes time and be totally confident it's the right number. And, there are other days, when it is very hard to have complete confidence in the numbers that you came back with. For example, if there is only one route race on the card, you don't have much to work with. Or, if there is a change in weather.

Thanks, DrugS.

--Dunbar