Scat Daddy's FL Derby Beyer

[The Indomitable DrugS]

When I did my figure projections...I had the route races 3 points faster than the Beyer figures.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When I did my figure projections...I had the route races 3 points faster than the Beyer figures.

DrugS, three questions that are probably fairly obvious, but I want to be sure. (1) when you do your figs, do you do them before you look at the Beyer figs? (2) are your figs "tripless" figs (ie, not trying to add or subtract for bias, trouble, etc?, and (3) are they on the same scale as the BSF's ? (ie, in a perfect world, would they match up exactly?

Thanks,
--Dunbar

PS--very nice thread-starter, JJP!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes, I make my projections before I see what the Beyer figure maker came back with...and I use the same scale.

I never add or subtract points for ground loss, bad trips, etc. I don't believe it's wise to. I might think a horse might have had about 2 or 3 lengths worth of trouble--but I would never factor that into the number....because those type of things can be difficult to quantify so accurately, and aren't always that cut and dry.

If you make a mistake with a figure--and have a number wrong, it can compound itself in the future, because you are going to be using that number when you make future figures. That's why I think non-computerized speed figures tend to act a lot more conservative when a tricky situation arises.

Now, I will sometimes take race circumstances and stuff like bias and pace into consideration when I do a card where a race on it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. There are some real easy days, where you can have a figure for every horse on the card in less than 10 minutes time and be totally confident it's the right number. And, there are other days, when it is very hard to have complete confidence in the numbers that you came back with. For example, if there is only one route race on the card, you don't have much to work with. Or, if there is a change in weather.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes, I make my projections before I see what the Beyer figure maker came back with...and I use the same scale.

I never add or subtract points for ground loss, bad trips, etc. I don't believe it's wise to. I might think a horse might have had about 2 or 3 lengths worth of trouble--but I would never factor that into the number....because those type of things can be difficult to quantify so accurately, and aren't always that cut and dry.

If you make a mistake with a figure--and have a number wrong, it can compound itself in the future, because you are going to be using that number when you make future figures. That's why I think non-computerized speed figures tend to act a lot more conservative when a tricky situation arises.

Now, I will sometimes take race circumstances and stuff like bias and pace into consideration when I do a card where a race on it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. There are some real easy days, where you can have a figure for every horse on the card in less than 10 minutes time and be totally confident it's the right number. And, there are other days, when it is very hard to have complete confidence in the numbers that you came back with. For example, if there is only one route race on the card, you don't have much to work with. Or, if there is a change in weather.

Thanks, DrugS.

--Dunbar