Tiago's Beyers???

[Kasept]

Kimme.. (and I guess Eajinabi)..

I'm sorry, but you're completely 100% wrong and are missing the important point.. I'm not aware there was a requirement that a horse lead a race at every point of call to be allowed the win. Tiago's fractions aren't presented as important in context of the Santa Anita Derby. They're important in the context of how he projects to run in the Derby. You look for horses in the Derby that run even SUB :25.0 fractions and can close solidly (<:38.0 is generally a great place to start looking for contenders). Running 5 quarter miles of :24.2 equals 10f in 2:02.0 and that wins most Derbies. Tiago's splits and SUB :37.0 closing time Saturday protend very well for Derby success.

As for the horses who did the heavy lifting in the Santa Anita Derby, they don't hand out any particular special awards for that. Black Seventeen and Liquidity did not run "better races" than Tiago Saturday. Sam P. was too close to the pace and is a better horse than he demonstrated. King of the Roxy, who isn't running in the Derby based on his performance Saturday, is a courageous overachiever who ran a winning race at 8.5f. Unfortunately, they've been running the Santa Anita Derby at 9f for a number of years.

Is Tiago a Derby lock? No.. But in the hands of Shirreffs, off that effort Saturday and with four weeks to fine tune, if you don't think Tiago can win May 5th, you're mistaken.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Kimme.. (and I guess Eajinabi)..

I'm sorry, but you're completely 100% wrong and are missing the important point.. I'm not aware there was a requirement that a horse lead a race at every point of call to be allowed the win. Tiago's fractions aren't presented as important in context of the Santa Anita Derby. They're important in the context of how he projects to run in the Derby. You look for horses in the Derby that run even SUB :25.0 fractions and can close solidly (<:38.0 is generally a great place to start looking for contenders). Running 5 quarter miles of :24.2 equals 10f in 2:02.0 and that wins most Derbies. Tiago's splits and SUB :37.0 closing time Saturday protend very well for Derby success.

As for the horses who did the heavy lifting in the Santa Anita Derby, they don't hand out any particular special awards for that. Black Seventeen and Liquidity did not run "better races" than Tiago Saturday. Sam P. was too close to the pace and is a better horse than he demonstrated. King of the Roxy, who isn't running in the Derby based on his performance Saturday, is a courageous overachiever who ran a winning race at 8.5f. Unfortunately, they've been running the Santa Anita Derby at 9f for a number of years.

Is Tiago a Derby lock? No.. But in the hands of Shirreffs, off that effort Saturday and with four weeks to fine tune, if you don't think Tiago can win May 5th, you're mistaken.

Better said than me.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Kimme.. (and I guess Eajinabi)..

I'm sorry, but you're completely 100% wrong and are missing the important point.. I'm not aware there was a requirement that a horse lead a race at every point of call to be allowed the win. Tiago's fractions aren't presented as important in context of the Santa Anita Derby. They're important in the context of how he projects to run in the Derby. You look for horses in the Derby that run even SUB :25.0 fractions and can close solidly (<:38.0 is generally a great place to start looking for contenders). Running 5 quarter miles of :24.2 equals 10f in 2:02.0 and that wins most Derbies. Tiago's splits and SUB :37.0 closing time Saturday protend very well for Derby success.

As for the horses who did the heavy lifting in the Santa Anita Derby, they don't hand out any particular special awards for that. Black Seventeen and Liquidity did not run "better races" than Tiago Saturday. Sam P. was too close to the pace and is a better horse than he demonstrated. King of the Roxy, who isn't running in the Derby based on his performance Saturday, is a courageous overachiever who ran a winning race at 8.5f. Unfortunately, they've been running the Santa Anita Derby at 9f for a number of years.

Is Tiago a Derby lock? No.. But in the hands of Shirreffs, off that effort Saturday and with four weeks to fine tune, if you don't think Tiago can win May 5th, you're mistaken.

As much as it pains me to point it out -- Cowtown Cat came home in 37.3 at Hawthorne Saturday, too. He obviously was allowed to loaf through the early stages, but at least he came home well too. (EDIT: Just watched the race again, and Jara wasn't all over him either. Urging him along and took to him with the whip a bit, but wasn't all out aboard him in any sense late)

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

As much as it pains me to point it out -- Cowtown Cat came home in 37.3 at Hawthorne Saturday, too. He obviously was allowed to loaf through the early stages, but at least he came home well too.

War Emblem won out pf the IL Derby. SNS was highly regarded out of the race last year. So much of the Ky Derby is based on post, pace and trip that it's impossible to rule out any of the horses that ran well in their preps and especially those that finished up well at this point.

If you project CQ final 1/16 in the LA derby, out to an 1/8, he too qualifies as an under 38 sec. 3/8.

I agree w/ much of Kasept's posts but one thing about projecting Tiago to run 24.2 the whole way around the track, that's being a bit over ambitious, isnt it more likely that Tiago runs his final 1/8 at CD in the same speed he ran his final 1/8 at SA? in 13 sec.

I dont see Tiago as some sort of closer like Ponder or Whirlaway or whatever. He's not gong to close in 24.2. More like 26 or maybe a little less.

What does that translate into a 2:03 derby? Okay, these are only projections and he may run better. Sounds to me like he can hit the board but a win not likely.

But kasept is onto something w/ those even fractions, those really are quite even, a horse that can run like that can have something left at the end for sure. What do you think he can run the final quarter in? Thats the big question.

[somerfrost]

Tiago sure appears to fit in this year's race...I prefer Dr Roman's Performance Figures to Beyers...he was awarded a -45 for the SA Derby, certainly that puts him in the mix. Nobiz Like Shobiz had a -55 for the Wood, best numbers of the season (at a distance) so far are Circular Quay's -65 on 3/10 and Street Sense's -60 on 3/17, AGS had a -60 earlier but fell to a -40 in the Wood.

[Past Post]

He will BOUNCE like a rubber ball.But now that he grabbed everyones attention,he will take some betting money come derby day.For me, I am not betting a dime on him.

[letswastemoney]

I don't believe Tiago will be that short of a price. I predict 15-1. I'd take him at that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously the SA Derby fell into Tiago's lap but it was only his fourth or fifth race. I'm not an especially big fan of his chances in the Derby, but I'm certainly interested in seeing how he progresses, as mediocre and distance challenged a field as the SA Derby was, and Sam P. got a very curious and mediocre ride, it doesn't seem fair to dismiss Tiago. He may well run a non-threatening race in the KY Derby, but for a horse with such little experience to have run at least the decent race he ran Saturday it doesn't seem logical to dismiss him. It hardly seems like the strongest contingency we've seen lining up for the first Saturday in May.

He's certainly improved a lot more in his short career than NoBiz Like Showbiz has. Why shouldn't he have more upside?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously the SA Derby fell into Tiago's lap but it was only his fourth or fifth race. I'm not an especially big fan of his chances in the Derby, but I'm certainly interested in seeing how he progresses, as mediocre and distance challenged a field as the SA Derby was, and Sam P. got a very curious and mediocre ride, it doesn't seem fair to dismiss Tiago. He may well run a non-threatening race in the KY Derby, but for a horse with such little experience to have run at least the decent race he ran Saturday it doesn't seem logical to dismiss him. It hardly seems like the strongest contingency we've seen lining up for the first Saturday in May.

He's certainly improved a lot more in his short career than NoBiz Like Showbiz has. Why shouldn't he have more upside?

because if mike smith wins another derby the planet will implode..

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

As much as it pains me to point it out -- Cowtown Cat came home in 37.3 at Hawthorne Saturday, too. He obviously was allowed to loaf through the early stages, but at least he came home well too. (EDIT: Just watched the race again, and Jara wasn't all over him either. Urging him along and took to him with the whip a bit, but wasn't all out aboard him in any sense late)

It seems like it never fails, the Illinois Derby winner either runs just fast enough or gets a big enough Beyer to have everyone talking about them. While Cowtown Cat isn't even his trainer's best, he still has to be talked about because he went about his business pretty well.

NT

[TitanSooner]

If Tiago ran anywhere outside of California, Kimmeastar would not be bashing him.

Nothing more, nothing less

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

If Tiago ran anywhere outside of California, Kimmeastar would not be bashing him.

Nothing more, nothing less

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

Have to agree, the left coast will not run good at CD. SA is a set up track for that last effort. won't repeat.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Have to agree, the left coast will not run good at CD. SA is a set up track for that last effort. won't repeat.

Way too early to say things like I'm reading here...I for one have absolutely no idea who is gonna run well this year...and neither does anyone else! Once we have the field set with post positions, then you can say with a little confidence that this horse or that horse will run well but now...??? Tiago is an interesting horse...to say he won't move forward now is well...interesting! Every year at this time, folks post that they "know" this or that...hell, I don't even know which horses will be in the field...all this is pure speculation!

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

all this is pure speculation!

Of course it is, it started January

[TitanSooner]

in 2005.. everybody was quick to toss out the horses coming out of the SA Derby.. How did they finish in the KY Derby? how about 1st, 5th, 6th..

I am not saying that this horse is a world beater. I also don't see any others in this crop, save possibly Curlin, who I'm not sure how good is/can be.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

What are you talking about? its not that everyone is abuzz over the horse. Steve merely said not to ignore him and that the possibility exists that he could win. That doesn't mean he was predicting a win. Predicting that he won't win is pretty lame and not very bold.

And what monsters are waiting to eat him alive? Who is your pick as of today.

If you ask me its too early to start ruling out a horse like Tiago as having no chance.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

What are you talking about? its not that everyone is abuzz over the horse. Steve merely said not to ignore him and that the possibility exists that he could win. That doesn't mean he was predicting a win. Predicting that he won't win is pretty lame and not very bold.

And what monsters are waiting to eat him alive? Who is your pick as of today.

If you ask me its too early to start ruling out a horse like Tiago as having no chance.

If you read this thread from the beginning,you will see there are a ton of people abuzz about this horse.
I have a right to disagree with all of them and Steve if I want.And he,and you and whoever else,have a right to disagree with me.That is just fine.That is how a forum works.I never said Steve was predicting a win,and that was not the topic we were discussing.Don't know how you got that.As far as my derby horse,I do not have one and will not until the first saturday in May,when I have the DRF in front of me.But I do know that Tiago will not be him.
Monsters?Everything east of California,those monsters.

[10 pnt move up]

Also here are the quarters and final 1/8th I came up with Tiago

25 24 23 3/5, 23 4/5, 12 4/5

what is wrong with that? This horse is bred to go farther, he is not really in play in the Derby as he will be overbet. While I respect Drugs opinion I think this horse has more talent then his brother.

If I hear the Santa Anita derby fell apart again I am going to puke. It was a fair race, the pace I have is 107 with a final of 100, hardly a fall apart (I had the derby as 130-100 that Giacomo won, now that is fall apart).

So objectively Tiago made a strong middle move into a fair pace to reach contention, then was able to grind out the win when Roxy got tired late. What is horrible with that for a horse in his fourth start? Sure he probably runs second had Roxy come home strong I would still view the outcome for what is, a well bred distance horse, late developing under strong connections who will run against a week field in a month.

Why is it everyone has to have an agenda when breaking down this colt, seems they are still frustrated over Giacomo if you ask me.