Another 50 feet, and No Biz gets Shugged

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I don't see how you can boldly claim the horse is going to fail in the Derby. It's not like there have been any worldbeaters so far.

It's easy, if he presses the pace, he gets rank, he loses. That's all.

Originally Posted by MisterB

It's easy, if he presses the pace, he gets rank, he loses. That's all.

If he improves off of the Wood then he's going to be tough to beat. He chewed up AGS and spit him out. There aren't too many horses on the derby trail that were as highly ranked and touted as AGS.

[Buffymommy]

Not anything against NoBiz, but I am not throwing out AGS in the Derby. He had a hard race out with SS and may not have been totally ready for another hard race.

Remember Thunder Gulch threw in a clunker in his last prep race too, which also gave me those wonderful odds on Derby day.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Not anything against NoBiz, but I am not throwing out AGS in the Derby. He had a hard race out with SS and may not have been totally ready for another hard race.

Remember Thunder Gulch threw in a clunker in his last prep race too, which also gave me those wonderful odds on Derby day.

good point, plus AGS was coming back on 3 weeks rest, and Nobiz 5 weeks

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Not anything against NoBiz, but I am not throwing out AGS in the Derby. He had a hard race out with SS and may not have been totally ready for another hard race.

Remember Thunder Gulch threw in a clunker in his last prep race too, which also gave me those wonderful odds on Derby day.

Funny, I was remembering Thunder Gulch's Blue Grass too. He was 24/1 on Derby Day. Hopefully we'll both be right about AGS on Derby Day and get a nice payoff.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Funny, I was remembering Thunder Gulch's Blue Grass too. He was 24/1 on Derby Day. Hopefully we'll both be right about AGS on Derby Day and get a nice payoff.

I was thinking the other day about all-time overlays and that certainly is on the list. The joke of it was he won the Remsen, was 2nd in the Hollywood Futurity, won the FoY, and won the Fla Derby before the clunker in the Blue Grass. How they let him go at that price was amazing. I was 17 years old and remember going to the OTB down the block to bet it and had to get someone to cash my ticket for me!!! LOL

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by philcski

I was thinking the other day about all-time overlays and that certainly is on the list. The joke of it was he won the Remsen, was 2nd in the Hollywood Futurity, won the FoY, and won the Fla Derby before the clunker in the Blue Grass. How they let him go at that price was amazing. I was 17 years old and remember going to the OTB down the block to bet it and had to get someone to cash my ticket for me!!! LOL

As much as I wanted Serena's Song to win that day, I knew the distance would get her. I played Thunder Gulch across the board and started screaming when he hit the lead. My only other overlay was Casual Lies in 1992. I wanted Ap Indy but decided to play CL when they scratched Indy. Figured CS had been running 2nd or 3rd to Indy in CA. so why not play him across the board.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

As much as I wanted Serena's Song to win that day, I knew the distance would get her. I played Thunder Gulch across the board and started screaming when he hit the lead. My only other overlay was Casual Lies in 1992. I wanted Ap Indy but decided to play CL when they scratched Indy. Figured CS had been running 2nd or 3rd to Indy in CA. so why not play him across the board.

Trivia... do you remember who was sent off as the favorite that day? How about the 2nd choice? I'll give you a hint on the 2nd one... he's not an American horse.

Originally Posted by philcski

I was thinking the other day about all-time overlays and that certainly is on the list. The joke of it was he won the Remsen, was 2nd in the Hollywood Futurity, won the FoY, and won the Fla Derby before the clunker in the Blue Grass. How they let him go at that price was amazing. I was 17 years old and remember going to the OTB down the block to bet it and had to get someone to cash my ticket for me!!! LOL

Something happened to him in the Blue grass. They went 49 sec. to the 1/2 and then TG tired! So I dunno if people thought he had got hurt or what. Obviously the race was a toss for handicapping purposes, in retro spect.

Im going from what I read, but do you recall anything else about that Bluegrass? Did they say TG got hurt or something?

***

OH yeah before I forget, one more thing about this closer/front runner thing...

It seems the last 5 or 6 years have produced more winners from just off the pace then what's typical. And I dont mean that to say that this is in aberration and that the race must be run to the statistical norm of 50% closers....

What I mean is perhaps there are emerging trends that are making this race now favorable to stalkers,perhaps trainers are more choosey on who they send to this race. I dont have an answer to that, but it's just another issue that favors the other argument against closers.

[johnny pinwheel]

it doesn't matter if the horse closes,stalks or leads at a mile and a quarter the horse has to relax and hit his best stride to reserve energy. go ahead bet nobiz (underlay) if he repeats satudays performance use your tickets as crying towels. someone was talking about this horses potential. i learned a long time ago potential does not cash winning tickets. that horse has not run a proper race yet, he either puts it together derby day or he will lose. from his prior performances are you willing to take a low price and bet on it ?

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by MisterB

It's easy, if he presses the pace, he gets rank, he loses. That's all.

its not that easy this horse has soooo much potential i think he wins the derby, hes my pick